Wyoming’s winter was one of the driest in recorded history. And spring followed suit.
Despite an influx of moisture-laden weather in June, data from the National Weather Service (NWS) show that the last three months have remained historically dry.
For many communities, the period between March 21 and June 20 was one of the driest in recorded history.
Riverton got 1.01 inches of total precipitation between March 21 and June 20, only 28% of its historical average. That’s officially Riverton’s driest spring since 1996.
Buffalo didn’t fare much better, with 1.91 of the 6.18 inches of precipitation it usually gets. It was Buffalo’s driest spring since 1998.
With the wettest months of Wyoming’s year in the past, meteorologists are anticipating an exceptionally dry summer.
“I'm not surprised,” Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day said. “March was so bad, April was not great, May was really bad in places, and June has been a bust. Those months are so critical, and they didn’t come through for us.”
Confirmation Bias
None of Wyoming’s meteorologists were surprised the 2026 spring season was so dry. It’s comparable to confirming how a murder has been committed when the murderer has already been tried and convicted after a thorough confession.
“Weather systems have been going around the fringes of Wyoming all season,” meteorologist Joshua Rowe with the NWS office in Riverton said. “It affected every region differently, but it was dry across the board.”
The reason for the dry season was the same phenomenon that made the 2025-2026 winter season historically dry. A series of stubborn high-pressure ridges set up in the Arctic Circle, funneling cold, wet weather away from the western U.S.
“The same story is pretty much true everywhere you look,” Day said. “There’s no getting around that this has been a severe drought across Wyoming.”
However, even this bleak outlook has a brighter perspective. Both Day and Rowe noted that spring precipitation wasn’t that bad when looking at communities with older records.
For instance, Lander got 3.25 of the 6.21 inches it typically receives between March 21 and June 20. That’s only 52% of their seasonal average, but it's only the 19th driest spring since 1891.
Casper had its 17th-driest spring since 1939, receiving 2.99 of its average 4.93 inches.
“This is ranking high on the list of driest winters for many places, but we’ve been down this road before,” Day said. “We’ve had some very dry years in the past, and people don't necessarily realize how prone we are to drought.”
Prognosis Not Positive
If the wettest months of Wyoming’s year were a bust, that doesn’t bode well for the hotter, drier summer ahead. Drought begets drought, as Day described it.
“It's really, really hard to erase or take big chunks out of drought as you get into early summer,” he said. “It’s already a dry climate, and the drier the ground gets, the harder it is to get rain. It takes a while for anything to bust that cycle.”
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of Wyoming is experiencing Severe or Extreme drought. That’s actually an improvement from a few months ago, but isn’t saying much.
Rowe sees the possibility of drought relief on the horizon, but not for a few more months.
“There is the potential for the upcoming monsoonal season to be active, but it's not a certainty and won’t happen until late summer and early fall,” he said. “We would need a prolonged period of that moisture, with thunderstorms and rain showers developing every day for several weeks, for most of Wyoming to see any real improvements.”
That’s where the potential of the developing El Niño can change the game in a big way, in either direction. Unfortunately, that won’t have any impact in the short term.
“The Climate Prediction Center is calling for slightly above-average moisture for the next three months,” Rowe said. “That could give us more monsoonal moisture as we get into late July, August, and September, but it would take quite a lot to make a significant change.”
Day was aware of that outlook, but “wouldn’t put any money on it."
“I’ve seen years where active tropical storms in the eastern Pacific Ocean during an El Niño summer drift into the Rockies and create some really wet weather in July, August and September,” he said. “I don't want to give any impression that it's coming or that this would end the drought conditions, but there’s a historical precedent for it.”
It’s On Josh Allen
Astronomical summer started with the summer solstice at 4:24 a.m. Sunday. Meteorological summer, however, started June 1.
Either way you look at it, it’s summer in Wyoming. That’s when people must be careful about what they wish for regarding moisture.
Even if there isn’t much precipitation over Wyoming, even a small amount can be enough to generate thunderstorms in the atmosphere. And with the thunder comes the lightning.
“If we're going to get rain, it's going to be likely coming from a thunderstorm,” Day said. “But thunderstorms could also cause lightning-induced fires. If you have wind coming in behind those storms, it’s a real concern.”
Day called summer thunderstorms “Catch 22s.” They’re the best chance for moisture but come with a higher risk of turning a drought-stricken landscape into an inferno.
“Do you want it to stay dry with no lightning, or do you want to take the chance to get wet and have lightning? I don’t have an answer for that, because thunderstorms are a blessing and a curse at the same time,” he said.
Now that summer’s here, the best course of action is to assume, and behave as if, the ongoing situation isn’t going to improve.
“Drought conditions are probably not going to improve much through the rest of June and into July,” Rowe said. “It'll really all depends on the monsoon as it develops later this summer. If it really sets up favorably for us, that would be very beneficial. We’ll have to see how that plays out.”
That said, there’s been a lot of active weather in Wyoming in the latter half of June. While the odds are low, Day said it's possible for June to make a noticeable dent in Wyoming’s drought.
“Getting that tropical storm activity in the Pacific and above-average precipitation in late July would be like 4th and 25 in a football game,” he said. “If you know we're going to go for it on fourth down, you have to hope Josh Allen’s our quarterback.”
Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.
