People have wagered at least $110,000 on Wyoming’s governor’s race and at least $21,000 on its U.S. House race on political market sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Both sites favor Steve Friess to win the Republican nomination to U.S. House, narrowly, over Secretary of State Chuck Gray, and Eric Barlow to win the GOP nomination for governor.
But they’re not a crystal ball, Dustin Olson, owner of American Pulse Research and Polling, told Cowboy State Daily in a Monday phone interview.
Olson also hosts a podcast called Political Trade Secrets.
Generally the more money in a race, the more reliable it is, he said. Wyoming’s House race hasn’t garnered big money: about $11,000 on PolyMarket and Kalshi each.
The big drivers of these markets are pollsters, people conducting their own surveys, people with special insight and news headlines, Olson added. Also they don’t call the wagers bets: they call them contracts, “and that’s how they get around all the (sports betting) rules.
“It’s not a good barometer of what’s necessarily real in a race … because it’s based on who’s buying contracts.”
But, Olson added as a caveat, the markets have at least the credibility factor that people were willing to put money on their predictions.
If anyone has some assurance that Gray will win the House race, now might be a good time to buy a “contract” in his favor, noted Olson.
As of 4:40 p.m. Monday, Kalshi has Gray at 42% odds behind Friess at 54%, and all other GOP House candidates trailing with 3% or less. Reid Rasner and Kevin Christensen are next, favored at 3% and 2%.
The other candidates in the Aug. 18 Republican primary election are Senate President Bo Biteman, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, former legislator Keith Goodenough, veteran David Giralt, and Richard Dodson.
Polymarket has Friess at 51% followed by Gray at 45%, Giralt at 5%, and the others trailing at 4% or less.
Gray’s Polymarket run was a near-steady climb through July, until Aug. 1, when he dropped from 66% to 46%.
That was two days after Friess unveiled 19 endorsements from former Wyoming legislators, industry leaders and former Gov. Jim Geringer.
Kalshi showed a similar dropoff Aug. 1 for Gray, but a flatter, though sizable, lead for him all summer.
That race, in those markets, doesn’t show the kind of money that suggests pollsters or big-time surveyors are involved, said Olson. It’s likelier a reflection of public messaging, news headlines, and released polls, he added.
Olson said the odds get more accurate when the pollsters jump in.
Gov’s Race
As for the governor’s race, “This has a lot more money on it.”
That’s $77,507 on Kalshi and $102,661 on Polymarket as of Monday afternoon.
That means this race has more traffic, and likely more input.
Polymarket has Barlow at 58%, Degenfelder at 41% and Bien at 3%. Kalshi has Barlow at 62%, Degenfelder at 38% and Bien at 3.8%.
Odds for Degenfelder skyrocketed in January – right after President Donald Trump endorsed her. She kept higher wager favorability than Barlow all summer.
The two didn’t trade places on until about Aug. 1 – and they did so on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
It’s likely a lot of the same people are playing both markets, said Olson.
Barlow started to climb in mid-July before unveiling poll results July 21 showing him with a huge lead.
The markets may be out of touch with on-the-ground sentiment, said Olson, adding that many people leveraging money likely don’t live in Wyoming.
“They might be people who live in New York City,” he said. “They read the headlines, or they’re talking to the insiders, or who knows.”
Headlines appear to be a large driver in this race as well, he said.
Risks
Olson said political wagering is, “I have to say, one of the more fascinating things to happen in politics in the last decade.”
But it carries risks of fixed races, dishonest polls, and even inside political maneuvering to fix the outcome of political events polls.
“This is, honestly, not a good thing for democracy,” he said.
Whoever is placing the majority of these “contracts” isn’t heeding the influence of the Wyoming Republican Party leadership, which endorsed Bien last month.
Bien’s campaign outreach coordinator Cheryl Aguiar said the team doesn’t put much stock in the betting metrics the market has given to it.
“Since these prediction markets are not related to election campaigns and should not be confused with the results from actual scientific public opinion polls, and since most are held outside of the United States and reflect the betting actions of people who bet on them rather than the views of residents of Wyoming,” said Aguiar, “the Bien campaign does not consider these prediction markets to have any value whatsoever as indicators of the outcome of elections.”
Aguiar added, “In other words, these ‘predictions’ are not predicting votes, they are only laying bets. Not to mention, foreign betting markets do not have the best interests of the USA or free economies.”
Kalshi’s website says it’s a U.S.-based company.
It was founded in 2018 by two people attending the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and became the first fully regulated financial exchange in the U.S. “specifically for event contracts,” the site says.
Forbes says Polymarket was founded in New York City in 2020.
Oh About That $2,700
Kalshi has a $2,670 market going for Wyoming’s Republican U.S. Senate nominee.
It’s not a competitive market.
Rep. Harriet Hageman is favored at 94.5% and Jimmy Skovgard at 3.8%. The other registered Republicans running aren’t on the market but curiously, House candidate Rasner is.
Clair McFarland can be reached at clair@cowboystatedaily.com.
