This story will be updated as Cowboy State Daily correspondents take more exit polls.
It’s election day in Wyoming.
The Republican primary election tends to be the most decisive race in this red state, where GOP factions mark the biggest statewide divides.
The races for governor, secretary of state, superintendent of public instruction, treasurer, U.S. House and one of Wyoming’s two U.S. Senate seats are all contested.
No race has garnered more coverage than the U.S. House race. The three biggest spenders and earners in that one are philanthropist Steve Friess, Casper businessman Reid Rasner, and Secretary of State Chuck Gray.
High-dollar political action committees have entered the fray, attacking Friess and Gray via mailboxes, TV and YouTube streams this month.
Also in that race are combat veteran Kevin Christensen, state Senate President Bo Biteman, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, former Army Ranger David Giralt, former legislator Keith Goodenough and Sundance man Richard Dodson.
In an exit poll taken at 11 a.m. at Riverton’s polling station, Friess had won 13 votes, Giralt and Christensen each seven, Gray and Rasner each six, Balow four and Biteman three.
A Cowboy State Daily correspondent is taking another exit poll in Sheridan. This story will be updated to reflect the result.
A smaller poll in Cody returned six votes for Christensen, five each for Gray and Friess, and four for Balow.
President Donald Trump did not endorse anyone in this race.
The winner faces Libertarian nominee Shawn Johnson, the Constitution Party's Jeff Haggit, and the winner of the Democratic primary contest between Elena Del Real and Lisa Kinney, in the Nov. 3 general election.
Governor's Race
The governor’s race features 14-year state legislator Sen. Eric Barlow, Trump-endorsed Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, the Wyoming Republican Party state central committee-endorsed, retired Marine Corps Col. Brent Bien, and rodeo production professional Curt Blake.
Like Bien, Barlow also served in the Marine Corps.
This race poses questions about Trump’s influence in Wyoming, the result of the state Republican Party leadership’s new proclamations of autonomy, and whether a longtime legislator can overcome the forces working to twist his extensive record.
An exit poll taken in Riverton at 11 a.m. showed 21 votes for Barlow, 20 for Degenfelder and 14 for Bien. The poll in Cody had 11 for Barlow, eight for Bien and one for Degenfelder.
The winner faces Democrat Kenneth Casner and Constitution Party nominee Rebecca Bextel in the general election.
Statewide Races
U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman is vying for the upper chamber in a Senate run against public-lands advocate Sam Mead, former judge John Holtz, military veteran Jimmy Skovgard and business owner Jill Edwards.
The winner faces whoever wins the Democratic primary, James Byrd or Billy Benavidez.
The secretary of state race features a tough standoff between top spender Robert Short, who’s a Converse County commissioner, and Wyoming Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Rachel Williams, plus Hageman’s former military and veterans liaison CJ Young and Hudson man Qwenton Eagle Oviatt.
Williams’ public statements indicate a laser focus on Short, whom she derided multiple times at a Wyoming Public Television debate Thursday, and whom she continued to criticize as disconnected in social media comments this week.
Short is campaigning on the slogan “Make the Secretary of State’s office boring again” – a nod to the numerous controversies involving current Secretary of State Chuck Gray.
The winner faces Democratic candidate Bryan McCarty.
In the treasurer’s race, Wyoming Freedom Caucus member and state Rep. Scott Smith, R-Lingle, challenges incumbent Curt Meier.
Smith has echoed residents’ concerns over wind farms and data centers on state lands.
Meier has pointed to his office’s historically high revenues of last year.
In the race for superintendent of public instruction, three men who have reveled in their campaigns’ relative lack of animosity took a joyful selfie onstage after their Thursday PBS debate.
Longtime legislator and former House Speaker Steve Harshman faces college professor and administrator Rep. Tom Kelly and former educator and gubernatorial policy advisor Chad Auer.
The winner faces the Democratic nominee, either Sergio Maldonado or Ana Cordova.
Around Wyoming
The Legislature features a few key races this cycle.
The New York Times on Friday featured the state Senate race between House Speaker Chip Neiman and the incumbent, former Senate President Ogden Driskill.
They’re both Republicans. Both ranchers. Both residents of the northeast Wyoming corner near Devils Tower.
But the race is anthemic of the larger divide between the Freedom Caucus, of which Neiman is a member, and its Republican critics, of which Driskill ranks among the fiercest.
Rematches have surfaced between Casper-based Republicans Rep. Julie Jarvis and former Rep. Jeanette Ward, the Converse/Natrona county district’s Rep. Kevin Campbell and 2024 challenger Edis Allen, and Green River Republicans Rep. Marlene Brady and former Rep. Tony Niemiec.
The Virginia PAC Make Liberty Win has stayed busy attacking candidates and supporting others.
It spent more money attacking 34-year legislator Sen. Cale Case than anyone else: $14,177.
In the fight for a district encompassing Lander and the Wind River Indian Reservation, Case faces challenger Lisa Wilson.
She moved to Wyoming because she fell in love with its ideals of “hard work, self-reliance, faith, and a deep respect for freedom,” her website says.
Case, a libertarian-leaning Republican, said he correctly anticipated a well-funded opposition this year.
In Sublette County, former House Speaker Albert Sommers is running to win back his seat after he forsook it to run unsuccessfully for the state Senate two years ago.
He faces fellow Republicans Bill Winney – a perennial candidate - and Matt McGinness, who earlier toyed with running for the U.S. House.
Oh, And This Weird Market
The political betting markets Kalshi and Polymarket both favor Gray to win the House race as of Tuesday morning, with Friess in second and everyone else, starting with Christensen, in the single digits. They favored Friess in the first half of August.
Both markets have strongly favored Barlow throughout August, though they favored Degenfelder before that point, with Bien a distant third.
Anything can move the markets from an out-of-stater’s whim to a pollster’s keen insight or a news headline.
These race outcomes might judge both markets’ accuracy.
Cowboy State Daily is featuring live election coverage starting after the polls close at 7.
Clair McFarland can be reached at clair@cowboystatedaily.com.
