The Farmer’s Almanac released its 2026-2027 winter forecast on Saturday. Its prognosis for Wyoming and the Rocky Mountain region is “cold, snowy at times, and breezy.”
Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day is aware of this and other long-range forecasts coming out for the upcoming winter. He's not buying what anyone's selling.
“I'm not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time,” Day said. “The Farmer’s Almanac does what the Farmer’s Almanac does. The National Weather Service will do what they do, and people on social media can post every computer model that they want, but I’m not going there yet.”
With a Super El Niño on the horizon after several consecutive historically dry months, Day was willing to discuss the broad trends that could impact Wyoming this winter. As for the specifics, there’s such a thing as being too early.
Day's message: trust these at your peril, especially when it’s still summer.
“Last year was a good example of getting too far ahead of your scheme, but it's so easy,” he said. “I’ve learned the hard way, so I’m not seeing expectations when we’re still in August.”
Super, But How Super?
The “biggest player” this winter, according to Day, will be the much-anticipated “Super” El Niño. Weather patterns and water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which have been monitored for several months, are manifesting as one of the most intense El Niños in recent years.
“We're definitely going to have this very strong El Niño,” Day said. “It's going to be the dominant factor this winter, but it's not the only one.”
Many long-range forecasts circulating are relying on historical data from past El Niños to provide an outlook for how it will impact global weather.
Day is a huge proponent of using historical data, but there might not be a historical precedent for what’s coming. A strong El Niño can be great for Wyoming or miss it entirely.
“The El Niño can be so strong it shifts the storm track to our south,” he said. “The enhanced rain and snow you can get in the winter can bypass Wyoming. It can just miss.”
In other years, a strong El Niño has tracked farther north, inundating parts of Wyoming with precipitation.
A strong El Niño is a given this winter. At this point, its trajectory could take it either way, which is why Day isn’t giving into the pressure to release a long-range forecast.
“The north-south extent of the El Niño signal is a real concern I have,” Day said. “It's really too early to glob onto and go all-in on either a model-driven forecast or what we would call an analog forecast of looking at El Niños from the past.”
The Hangover
The top reason to be skeptical of any long-range winter forecasts for this winter is the lessons still to be learned from last winter.
Day acknowledged how his long-range forecast for the 2025-2026 winter season, released in August 2025, was radically different from the winter Wyoming got. That stung, but his misery had good company.
“That’s the cautionary tale,” he said. “We had 90 blocking patterns this winter. Nobody anticipated that, and no models predicted it. Simply put, our models fail.”
Those “blocking patterns” were stubborn ridges of high pressure that essentially blocked winter weather from reaching Wyoming and siphoned it elsewhere. That’s why it was historically dry in the western U.S. and historically cold and snowy in the eastern U.S.
By November 2025, it was clear that the colder, snowier winter forecasted wasn’t going to plan. Nearly every month since then has been significantly warmer and drier than average, with no end in sight.
“This summer was a hangover from last winter, especially through July,” Day said. “Last winter, all our weather went north. A really strong El Niño can direct all the storms south. That is a concern.”
El Niño isn’t known for having frequent blocking patterns. Instead, it tends to have one blocking pattern that can last for several months without let-up.
According to Day, very persistent, stubborn blocking patterns are “a concern” with the incoming El Niño. Where those patterns could set up, and how it would impact the winter, remain to be seen.
That’s one area where Day had a sliver of confidence when looking ahead. Historically, the enduring block patterns have favored Wyoming.
“You can have a semi-permanent high-pressure system over central Canada that migrates back and forth,” he said. “El Niño patterns can lock in between December and February, which is a concern, but it's not in the Pacific, which was our problem last year.”
Who’s On The Bench?
For Day, putting out a long-range forecast for the 2026-2027 winter season would be like betting on the winner of a barely started chess game. The game’s afoot, and there’s no way to confidently say what the winning move will be.
However, Day can look at the board and see which pieces are and aren’t in play. Many of the factors that came together to make last winter so warm and dry aren’t a factor now.
“What we can say about the upcoming winter is that it does not look like we have all of the big players that we had last winter,” he said.
The 2025-2026 winter season started with a weak La Niña. Since the Super El Niño is already manifesting, La Niña won’t be a factor going forward.
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a cyclical pattern of wind directions in the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere. It has enormous impacts on global weather.
According to Day, the QBO was in “an easterly phase” last year. This year, winter will begin when the QBO is in its opposite, westerly phase.
Then there are the North and South Poles, which are already colder than they were at this point last year.
Several elements that affect long-range weather and seasonal forecasting are different this year. How it all plays out with a strong El Niño remains uncertain.
“El Nino is going to be the quarterback and head coach this winter, bar none,” Day said. “There are other players involved, but that's why we've got to understand these players and those that aren't going to come off the bench until a little bit later on.”
The Given
Historically, El Niño has been favorable for Wyoming’s winter, bringing colder temperatures and precipitation. That’s a possible scenario for this winter, but there are no guarantees.
That’s another reason Day doesn’t want to make people more optimistic or pessimistic than they need to, especially in August. Many people who are seeking salvation from a strong El Niño might not get it.
“If you take a critical look at El Niños in Wyoming, it’s extremely rare that the entire state benefits from it,” he said. “If we do get into stubborn holding patterns, El Niños can be feast or famine, and Wyoming is a big state.”
No Voodoo That You Do So Well
As Day was discussing his concerns about long-range winter forecasts in August, he didn’t even consider what the Farmer’s Almanac was forecasting.
“I'm not going to include the Farmer’s Almanac,” he said. “They're either taking models verbatim, or they're taking El Niños that have occurred in the past. These approaches aren't necessarily wrong, but I don't think that's the right way to approach the winter forecast when we're still on the backside of summer.”
Day’s hoping to have his winter forecast ready by mid-September, when the impacts of the Super El Niño are starting to roll in. It’s going to be so critical that its impact shouldn’t be anticipated so soon.
“A lot of things that are going to drive this winter, in addition to El Niño, aren't going to really start showing themselves until we get deeper into fall,” he said. “I am not going to go there yet. I’m not setting expectations. We need to be patient.”
Day’s word of caution to Wyomingites was to be extremely skeptical of any long-range winter forecast they might see for the next month or so. Any person or agency that’s confident in their forecast, in his opinion, doesn’t have enough critical information to be credible.
“The problem with doing long-range weather forecasts is that weather is so dynamic,” he said. “If you make a graphic that's good for three or four months, and subtle things change, then you have to throw it out the window. That’s why we have to be careful.”
That goes double for the Farmer’s Almanac. While it still has its uses in the 21st Century, long-range weather forecasts aren’t one of them.
“I don't know what voodoo magic they use to get their forecasts,” he said. “I don't think we should be talking about any detailed winter forecast till maybe mid to late September. Until then, it’s not helpful for anybody.”
Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.
