A nonpartisan election analysis group knocked Wyoming’s projected election results from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” in the race for the state’s lone U.S. House seat.
Inside Elections still lists the governor’s race and U.S. Senate race as “Solid R.”
But in the House election contrasting Republican nominee Secretary of State Chuck Gray, Libertarian Party nominee Shawn Johnson, Democratic nominee Lisa Kinney and Constitution Party nominee Jeff Haggit, the analysts aren’t as confident in the GOP.
“Yes, Wyoming,” the think tank wrote Friday on X.com. “An unpopular president and divisive GOP nominee Chuck Gray have put the most Republican state in the country on the edge of the House map.”
Wyoming hasn’t elected a Democrat to its U.S. House seat in 50 years, and the GOP primary election historically decides the general election winner.
Gray called the group’s announcement “Fake news.”
Johnson, on the other hand, took the analysis as legitimate and said it’s because his campaign is pulling voters of all stripes away from Gray.
Kinney didn’t respond to a request for comment by publication.
The Affordability Ad, The Attack Ad
To Politico columnist Jonathan Martin, Gray’s recent activity confirms the claim by Inside Elections.
Gray’s campaign committee launched a video commercial saying Gray is focused on affordability, will work to keep rural hospitals open, and “will ban members of Congress from trading stocks.”
Also WY Action, a group funded by Gray’s father Jan Gray, ran an attack ad against Kinney.
Martin delivered his Monday interview with a few wry chuckles.
“Look I think the fact that Chuck Gray, who is not exactly known for his focus on affordability to put it mildly, is now airing a one-size-fits-all advertisement this late in the campaign with poll-tested, safe issues like his focus on affordability and banning stock trades,” said Martin.
“(That) tells you that he,, or at least his consultants, are concerned this race is closer than they expected,” he added.
It this was a normal year, “even a slightly Democratic year,” Martin continued, a statewide candidate in a state as red as Wyoming wouldn’t be turning to that kind of an ad in October.
National polling shows Democrats holding a 12-point lead on the Congressional ballot heading into the Nov. 3 general election.
While the energy is “with Democrats” nationally, said Martin, Gray’s own legacy in Wyoming also precedes him.
“He’s got no lack of adversaries in his Republican Party, people not thrilled about him being the nominee in the at-large seat,” Martin said.
The report comes nearly two weeks after President Donald Trump endorsed Gray.
Still 'Solid Red' Over Here
Mary Kay Hill, longtime politico and former chief of staff for Gov. Matt Mead, wasn’t as convinced that Gray is on shaky ground. She pointed to the Cook Report, rather, as a lodestar.
The Cook Report still calls that seat “solid red.”
If there’s uncertainty for team Gray going into November, that could be a normal reaction to his low primary election vote take of 25%, noted Hill.
That came from a crowded race featuring 10, at later nine, Republican candidates.
As for the attack on Kinney, Hill said she’s not sure what Gray’s supporters are thinking there. But she said she doesn’t consider his campaign committee’s ad a panic gesture, necessarily.
Gray said in a Monday text message that, “I’m not taking anything for granted, and we’re going to continue to work hard, just as I will as a Congressman.”
Of Inside elections, he said, “These so-called rating outfits are pure fake news, peddling the same recycled fantasy of some magical blue wave that never shows up.
"It is so important that Wyoming Republicans vote, but we will keep Wyoming red in November.”
Libertarian Says He's Got An Edge
Inside Elections didn’t acknowledge the Libertarian candidate in its race overview.
However, Johnson could be a factor in the GOP’s reported slip, Martin said.
Johnson told Cowboy State Daily in a Monday interview that his campaign is causing the red fade.
“I think I am a huge factor in that calculation, that is potentially pulling votes from disaffected Republicans, and even disaffected Democrats, Independents,” he said.
On the PBS Wyoming debate stage Thursday in Riverton, Johnson asserted that Gray didn’t show up to the debate because he didn’t want to draw attention to the similarities Johnson has with Wyoming Republicans.
The outlets overlooking his campaign “clearly don’t understand the dynamic of Wyoming politics,” said Johnson.
The town of Green River elected a Libertarian to the state House in 2020. Riverton twice came within roughly 40 votes of sending a Libertarian to the state House.
Johnson noted that Republicans have endorsed him, including former Natrona County GOP Chair Joe McGinley.
He’s campaigned on the premise that his election “would send shockwaves” nationwide and put Congress on notice that Wyoming wants a voice free of the two establishment parties.
Kinney, On Friday
Though Kinney could not be reached Monday by text or phone call, her team appears aware of the report.
Kinney’s political Facebook page posted the link to a Newsweek story about the Inside Elections report on Friday, with the words, “I’m Lisa Kinney. WYOMING, I’m running for you!”
The Newsweek reporter had contacted Kinney’s team for comment.
He had not contacted Shawn Johnson, the latter confirmed to Cowboy State Daily.
“You know Newsweek, had they looked at those sorts of things, could have seen there’s a viable potential a Libertarian could actually win this race,” said Johnson. “And if not win, even pull ahead of the Democrat in the general election.”
Clair McFarland can be reached at clair@cowboystatedaily.com.
