Today is Sunday, Aug. 16. With Election Day just 48 hours away, it is time to put on my prognosticator’s hat and try to figure out who will win Tuesday’s political races.
All the political excitement is in the Wyoming Republican primary. We are a one-party state, so everything happens in the primary.
Predictions And Favorites
Cowboy State Daily columnists have some interesting points of view.
Rod Miller favors Eric Barlow for governor and Kevin Christensen for U.S. House.
Tom Lubnau favors Eric Barlow for governor and Steve Friess for U.S. House.
Dave Simpson favors Brent Bien for governor and Chuck Gray for U.S. House.
Fred Harrison favors Megan Degenfelder for governor and Chuck Gray for U.S. House.
Here is how I see these races:
U.S. House
A gambling man would probably pick Secretary of State Chuck Gray of Casper to win the race for U.S. House.
Nobody else in this race has his network of followers, and he has been consistent. Considered a lightning rod, Gray has always been in the news. Gray seems to enjoy “just being Chuck.”
For example, how many state officials in history have been invited outside during a heated discussion by a sitting governor who is known to be somewhat mild-mannered? Probably not many.
Longtime political writer Joan Barron calls Gray an “obnoxious grandstander.”
After thoroughly analyzing this campaign, based on my 56 years of watching politics in Wyoming, I came to the conclusion recently that Steve Friess of Jackson might pull off a last-minute upset over Gray.
A lot of Friess’ boosters claim that not since Wyoming sent first-termers Dick Cheney and Liz Cheney to Congress have we had the chance to send someone who can make a big difference like Steve Friess can.
That argument may very well be true.
But there are seven other Republicans in the race, and unless large numbers of their supporters bail out and move over to Friess, this race should go to Chuck.
Those candidates are Jillian Balow of Cheyenne, Bob Biteman of Ranchester, Reid Rasner, Kevin Christensen, and Keith Goodenough of Casper, David Giralt of Mills and Richard Dodson of Sundance.
It will be close.
Governor
Like Gray, State Sen. Eric Barlow of Gillette has been the leader in his race from Day One. He has put together a tremendous team statewide and has boatloads of support.
As a former Speaker of the House, he was obviously well-liked, based on the number of legislators helping him. Has he heard of the “Speaker’s Curse?”
For some reason, Wyoming voters have not elected a House speaker or Senate president as governor in 50 years.
Megan Degenfelder of Cheyenne is young, at age 37, but has an amazing machine working for her. She has President Donald Trump working hard for her. She can honestly say that she will have the president’s ear if elected.
Folks, this is huge.
Her team has spent more than a million dollars attacking Barlow’s record. Based on all the TV ads and fliers, you would almost wonder why he is not in jail.
Barlow has not fired back much, which is commendable, but probably a bad tactic in these crazy political days.
The sleeper is retired Marine Col. Brent Bien of Cody. He has worked very hard and has a huge personal following. He lost the primary to Gov. Mark Gordon four years ago, receiving 48,572 votes.
If those same people vote for him, he just might win.
Despite a huge late surge by Degenfelder, I have a hunch Barlow will hold on and emerge victorious.
U.S. Senate
You would think this race would be a big deal. There are only 100 men and women in the U.S. Senate.
Current U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman has done an excellent job and has President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Her biggest rival is 37-year-old Sam Mead of the well-connected Mead family from Jackson. His uncle Matt was governor, and his grandmother Mary Mead ran for governor.
He has worked hard and generated quite a bit of support.
Harriet will win and will do a great job as our next U.S. senator.
Other Races
Longtime Casper State Rep. Steve Harshman should cruise to an easy win in the contest for state superintendent of public instruction. He is a longtime teacher and coach and has been a consistent leader in the state Legislature.
This is a case of one candidate having much better name recognition than the others, Chad Auer of Cheyenne and Tom Kelly of Sheridan.
The secretary of state’s race has been somewhat underwhelming. It is hard to find issues for the candidates to fight about.
Robert Short of Douglas appears to be the front-runner, although Rachel Williams of Cody has the Freedom Caucus folks working hard for her.
CJ Young of Cheyenne and Qwenton Oviatt of Hudson will finish out of the running.
State Treasurer Curt Meier of La Grange should have no trouble defeating challenger Scott Smith of Lingle.
Turnout
Originally, I thought this election would have a small turnout.
Now I have changed my mind totally. We could easily have 130,000 to 150,000 total Republican votes.
The record was four years ago when 172,000 voted. Other recent years have seen turnout as low as 117,000.
The bigger turnout will favor Degenfelder and Friess, in my opinion.
Conclusion
These are just my predictions as a columnist. What do you think?
We want to hear what you have to say. Cowboy State Daily will be running an election quiz, and you can see if you can top our staff. It will be in the Monday morning newsletter.
Managing Editor Greg Johnson won our last quiz two years ago, and Jen Kocher, one of our writers from Gillette, won it four years ago. Six years ago, Tom Lacock of Cheyenne won it.
That quiz will be in Cowboy State Daily Monday.
Bill can be reached at Bill@CowboyStateDaily.com
