I always saw this year’s U.S. House Republican primary much like this year’s Kentucky Derby.
The favorite was out in front, much like Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray has been, for almost the entire race.
Then came a longshot named Golden Tempo, like late entrant Steve Friess.
Golden Tempo started near the back of the pack but kept running and running and running until, in the end, he caught everybody and won the Derby.
That is how I see this political race.
Steve Friess started way back in the pack, but he just might finish first.
His supporters are arguing that not since Wyoming sent Dick Cheney and Liz Cheney to Congress, have we had the chance to send someone who can make a big difference like Friess can.
He has run an expensive and aggressive campaign for the U.S. House seat being vacated by Harriet Hageman this year.
I spent several hours talking with Friess Saturday night, one-on-one, and learned a lot. Some important distinctions about his candidacy came to the fore.
First, he knows President Donald Trump personally.
His family is good friends with the president. For example, Trump appointed his mother to the Kennedy Center board. Trump endorsed his dad for Wyoming governor in 2018.
That Trump connection is a huge advantage in a state with just one lonely congressman.
Second, over the past decade, Friess put together the national team that worked on many of those presidential executive orders we saw during Trump’s first and second terms.
He worked with members of Trump’s leadership group.
These are big issues for Wyomingites.
Third, Friess is a good Christian family man who is pro-life and pro-gun and represents values that mean a lot to most Wyoming voters.
Friess was in Lander Saturday with his billboard motorhome and his secret weapon, his powerhouse daughter Ginger.
This 19-year-old dynamo reminded me a lot of Dave Freudenthal’s daughter Hillary, who was one of the masterminds of her dad’s winning gubernatorial campaign in 2002.
Friess came into the campaign late with little name recognition. He admits that a great many Wyoming Republicans pushed him to enter because they simply did not want lightning-rod Secretary of State Chuck Gray representing the state.
Chuck And Reid
As much as these two despise each other, U.S. House candidates Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner should be near the top.
By every measure, Gray should win this race.
He has a solid base and has been running political campaigns for years. He is never out of the news. He has a loyal following.
It would be easy to predict Gray as the winner of this race.
This race has always been Gray’s to lose. But it appears he might be losing support rather than gaining it as we near the finish line.
Meanwhile, his arch-enemy Rasner is a dilemma.
Steve Friess says a few people accused him of hiring Rasner to go after Gray.
“No!” Friess exclaims. “I hardly know the man.”
Reportedly, Rasner has spent more than $2 million, with a large portion of that bashing Gray.
Amazing.
And yet, as his negative ads pull Gray down, those ads definitely do NOT push Rasner up.
I predict Rasner will finish fifth and might set a new record by spending more than $200 per vote.
Other Candidates
For a long time, I thought former State School Superintendent Jillian Balow could win this.
As we wind down to less than a week, it just appears that she was unable to get the backing she needed.
The headwinds she faced, including being outspent by roughly 20 to 1, are just too much, in my opinion.
She would be an outstanding congressperson, but first she has to figure out a way to win this election.
State Senate President Bo Biteman is another very good candidate whose campaign does not appear to have the fire needed to get him to the finish line.
I would remind both Jillian and Bo what Moran rancher Frank Chapman said when he bailed from this race after spending $1 million:
“There is no second place. I could not win. I got out.”
Military veteran Kevin Christensen could pull off a huge upset if he finishes near the top of this race.
I think he has spent less than $50,000, but he is a helluva good candidate with a great Wyoming political future ahead of him.
David Giralt is similar to Christensen. Very smart, with good experience.
But not this time around.
Other candidates include Richard Dodson, who has been a non-factor, and longtime Democratic activist Keith Goodenough, who most recently signed up as a Republican.
Study This Campaign
Years from now, political students will study this campaign.
I hope they do, and I hope they can figure out what motivated Rasner to spend so much money attacking Gray.
Overall, the numbers are stupendous. This could be the first $15 million political campaign in Wyoming’s history.
So much money.
And so much of it was spent on smear campaigns.
It makes me embarrassed by the Wyoming political system.
Can Friess Pull It Off?
In conclusion, Friess has a great chance to defeat Gray and the others based on who he knows, what he can do and how he will behave as our congressman.
The big question is: Is he peaking too late?
And finally, thanks to all the candidates who gave their time, their money and their love of Wyoming to their campaigns.
I know first-hand how it feels to run as hard as you can and still finish back in the pack.
This column is not meant to disparage anyone but rather to provide a conclusion for my readers after much time and thought.
