Governor Barlow? Governor Degenfelder? Governor Bien?
Which will it be?
This race is very close. From my perch, it looks like Barlow, Degenfelder, and Bien, in that order with 17 days to go.
Trust me, with nasty campaigning, gaffes, surprising polling, and perhaps some out-of-blue endorsements, this order can change.
Final Weeks – Any Surprises?
We are headed into the final weeks of the primary election season, and one of three Republicans will emerge as our next governor: State Sen. Eric Barlow, State Superintendent Megan Degenfelder, or former Marine Col. Brent Bien.
They have run spirited campaigns and offer voters an honest choice among three serious candidates.
Megan has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, while Bien has been endorsed by the state Republican Party Central Committee. And yet, Barlow’s polls show him in the lead, he says.
Frankly, what I like best about this race is that none of these three candidates are self-funding their campaigns.
They are ordinary, hard-working Wyoming natives who took very different paths leading to this collision course in the Aug. 18 Republican primary for governor.
Barlow, 60, has been around a long time.
He has built an amazing organization of more than 3,000 supporters spread across the state. It’s one of the best grassroots organizations I have seen in the last several decades.
The late U.S. Sen. Mike Enzi during his early campaigns, could muster that kind of support.
Barlow is a state senator from Campbell County. He has run a clean campaign and raised a ton of money.
Degenfelder, 37, might seem like the underdog at first glance.
Then she landed a heavyweight punch with the endorsement by President Donald Trump, which is gigantic in a state which supported Trump more than any other state.
She is also the current Superintendent of Public Instruction, overseeing a staff of about 140 and the second-largest budget in state government.
She also has four years of experience serving on statewide boards. Unknown to most voters, she has an astonishing knowledge about Wyoming energy.
Bien, 58, seems to have been campaigning nonstop for five years.
He lost the primary to Gov. Mark Gordon four years ago.
Now he is back and has a spirited group of Freedom Caucus supporters working hard for him across the state. He also has big campaign signs all over Wyoming. Barlow may have more signs but Bien’s are bigger.
Who Will Win?
Each campaign is confident in its position.
Barlow is making his seventh circuit around the state and says he has put more than 40,000 miles on his vehicles.
A huge number of legislators are working for him, along with plenty of other supporters.
In many ways, he appears, philosophically, to be a current version of former governor Matt Mead and current governor Mark Gordon.
Both of those men are pragmatic and middle-of-the-road conservatives. For that reason, many voters feel comfortable supporting Barlow.
Cross-over voters (Democrats and Independents) will support him, which could give him the win.
Barlow is proud of his campaign and told me he can’t imagine doing anything different. He and his wife Kelly have given it their all.
During a conversation earlier this week, I asked Megan if she sees herself as Wyoming’s version of South Dakota’s Kristi Noem, the popular governor whose political star burned out after some disastrous missteps.
Megan took umbrage to this and said she would rather see herself modeled after strong female governors like Kim Reynolds of Iowa or Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas.
Bien may be having more fun on the campaign trail than anyone. During his previous race, he traveled the state in a motorhome and got to experience every corner of Wyoming.
What surprises most candidates in their first statewide race is just how big Wyoming really is.
You don’t fully appreciate that until you have a noon event in Evanston and a dinner meeting in Wheatland on the same day.
Polls?
Barlow touts his polls as showing him with a comfortable lead.
Degenfelder says her polls show her doing just fine, and she is pleased with where she stands.
Bien was unavailable for comment, so we were unable to ask him about his polling.
Perhaps it is a generational thing, but a look at the number of Facebook followers for each campaign speaks volumes. Bien has about 4,400 followers. Barlow has about 6,600. Degenfelder has 20,000. That is an overwhelming gap and could prove to be a predictor of the final outcome. Megan is proud member of the Millennial generation, perhaps the first of her age group to run for governor.
The Trump Effect
We were down in Texas this spring when Attorney General Ken Paxton took on four-term incumbent Republican U. S. Sen. John Cornyn.
They qualified for a runoff. Trump endorsed the controversial Paxton, who went on to defeat Cornyn by a roughly 2-to-1 margin. It was a rout.
If that kind of scenario plays out in Wyoming, Megan Degenfelder will be elected our next governor.
Lots can happen over the next two weeks.
Stay tuned.
Bill can be reached at williamsniffin@gmail.com.
