Trust me, folks, these are the craziest of political times.
I love these times. These are times when we get to comment on trends, predict outcomes and pontificate on what is going on here in Wyoming.
So, which way are the Wyoming political winds blowing?
Boatloads of money are being spent on statewide political campaigns this year, and strategists are scratching their heads. When should a campaign peak? More on that later.
As a one-party state, all the action is occurring among the factions of the Republican Party.
Is it possible there might be four different factions of Republicans going into the Aug. 18 primary?
First is the Freedom Caucus. They contend they are the true believers carrying the torch for the original core beliefs of Republicanism.
Second are the moderates. These are often called RINOs, which means "Republican In Name Only." Some pretty doggone well-known Republicans seem to fall into this category, including U.S. Sens. John Barrasso and Cynthia Lummis, Gov. Mark Gordon and a host of others.
Third is a new, lonely category occupied by State Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder. She is running for governor and is endorsed by President Donald Trump. Perfect position, right? Well, not so fast.
The state Republican Party leadership committee endorsed newcomer Brent Bien, turning its back on both her and Trump. What an odd move this was. With Trump's backing, the highly capable Degenfelder looked like a shoo-in. Now, not so fast.
Fourth are the folks crossing over to the Republican Party so they can participate in the process. Since Democrats and independents have no dogs in the fight, they want to play, too. Thus, they become a voting bloc of perhaps 12,000 people. In close races, these folks can make a difference.
Now, That Endorsement
The biggest recent news is the break by the state Republican Party leadership committee from the hold of President Trump. The 50-member statewide group endorsed newcomer Brent Bien for governor over Trump-endorsed Megan Degenfelder.
Wyoming supported Trump by the highest margin of any state in the 2024 presidential election. What Trump says usually goes in the Cowboy State. For this committee to do this was startling indeed.
And the vote was not even close. It was 34-4, with 13 abstaining. This spells big-time trouble for Degenfelder, who seemed to be on cruise control during this campaign.
Meanwhile, both Bien and Degenfelder might be looking at the taillights of Eric Barlow, the presumed front-runner. Barlow has been running hard since last August and his statewide organization is outstanding.
That state committee also endorsed Secretary of State Chuck Gray for the U.S. House and Congresswoman Harriet Hageman for the U.S. Senate.
Final Stretch
Of all the U. S. House candidates, I really like what Steve Friess is doing. His campaign started a little slow and a little late, but after spending close to $2 million and then launching a final statewide tour, he is gaining momentum. Two experts I respect have both predicted he will win. I shall keep them nameless at this time.
This race has always been Chuck Gray's to lose. He has a rock-solid base of voters. If that base numbers more than 22,000, he will probably win. Plus, that endorsement by the state GOP is huge.
Hard-working and highly capable Jillian Balow is paddling as fast as she can, but how do you compete against competitors who are spending millions? Reid Rasner, who has provided a ton of comic relief during this campaign, has already dumped more than $2 million into his race, for example.
As I pointed out in last week's column, this might be the first $20 million campaign in Wyoming history. It also has been the craziest.
And finally, some poll results are being leaked. In the House, one poll showed Gray with a lead, followed by Balow, with Friess moving up fast. Friess said during a forum Thursday that his polling shows he and Gray, in the lead, tied at 16 percent.
Not sure how valid these poll results are, but even fake poll results can sink a campaign in a close race. Love 'em or hate 'em, voters love polls.
Perhaps his polls told him he was a goner so Frank Chapman dropped out of the House race after spending a cool million bucks. Heck, Frank, I could have saved you a lot of money if you would have asked me my opinion. Now this race would be improved if a few others would choose to drop out, too.
In the governor’s race, Barlow released a poll showing him with a nice cushion ahead of Degenfelder and Bien.
Do Not Peak Too Soon
Let me tell you about one of Wyoming's premier political minds. It belongs to Buffalo businessman John Jenkins, who masterminded some of the state's greatest statewide campaigns during the 1970s and 1980s.
One of those campaigns saw three-term Democratic Gov. Ed Herschler score a tremendous comeback in 1978 and literally snatch the governorship away from his GOP opponent, John Ostlund of Gillette.
As an editor, I couldn't resist writing a column in my Lander newspaper back then in which I applauded Jenkins' efforts but mildly criticized him for "peaking a week early."
Jenkins took some friendly umbrage at my comments and wrote back these memorable words:
"Well, Bill, I would rather peak a week early than a week late!"
I could never look at a political campaign after that without remembering those words and applying Jenkins' succinct observation to the race.
Bill can be reached at Bill@CowboyStateDaily.com
