State Sen. Eric Barlow released poll results Tuesday showing him with a sizable lead over other Republican candidates in the race for Wyoming governor.
Two of his opponents doubt that outcome. One of them doesn’t.
Barlow, a legislator of 13 years and former House speaker, is running for the Republican nomination against Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, retired Marine Col. Brent Bien, and Centennial man Curt Blake.
His campaign released polling results Tuesday showing him at 42% support, followed by Degenfelder at 19% and Bien at 14% — with 22% undecided — when people were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today.
The poll was taken in the past three days by the Pulse Decision Science firm, the campaign says.
“Barlow has gained 10 points since the campaign’s previous survey and his net favorability has climbed from +19 to +34,” says a Tuesday statement by his campaign. “This comes even as he has been outspent more than 5-to-1 by Degenfelder and the outside groups supporting her.”
Barlow said he’s taken six full trips through all 23 Wyoming counties and is starting his seventh statewide tour.
The primary election is set for Aug. 18.
“We believed from the beginning that if we showed up, listened and stayed focused on Wyoming, voters would respond,” Barlow said. “This poll is encouraging, but it does not change how we campaign.
"We will keep showing up, keep listening and keep earning every vote."
Barlow told Cowboy State Daily in a Tuesday-evening phone call that he trusts the polling, and its cross-tabulation veracity checks. He said Wyomingites' reception of him on the campaign trail is also "quite encouraging."
His campaign has amassed 2,500 volunteers and contributions from nearly 2,000 individual Wyoming donors, with more than $1 million raised from in-state individuals, the statement says.
The statement says Barlow has focused his campaign on expanding economic opportunity, improving access to rural health care, strengthening Wyoming’s energy and agriculture industries, addressing housing challenges, keeping decisions local and keeping the state's public lands accessible to Wyomingites.
Nah, Says Degenfelder
Degenfelder’s campaign manager Charlotte Jones emphasized that Barlow’s numbers are from his own campaign.
“Voters should take the Barlow campaign’s internal ‘polling’ numbers with a heavy grain of salt, which come as no surprise from the campaign of a career politician desperately trying to run from his record of opposing Wyoming Industries and Wyoming values,” wrote Jones in a Tuesday email.
“Megan’s campaign is focused on talking to voters about the issues they care about and highlighting her record as the only candidate in the race with a proven record fighting for our mineral industries, and defending women’s sports and parental rights," wrote Jones, "which is why she has earned the support of Donald Trump and Harriet Hageman.”
Trump endorsed Degenfelder in January before she entered the race, and doubled down with a message in her favor late last week.
U.S. House Rep. Harriet Hageman, who’s running for U.S. Senate, has endorsed Degenfelder and campaigned with her in multiple locations.
Not Doing That
The Wyoming Republican Party Central Committee broke tradition Monday night and endorsed Bien in the race.
One delegate, Weston County GOP Chair Kari Drost, asked the committee to consider endorsing Degenfelder as well, but the committee cast a majority vote to end the process instead.
The Central Committee considered, but voted against, adopting an official position opposing Barlow.
Bien is not doing polling, says a Tuesday email from his campaign associate Cheryl Aguiar. She called his campaign a grassroots effort.
“As someone who taught statistics to graduate students, I would have all sorts of questions on methodology, sample size, randomness, question wording, and other aspects mainly founded in ‘who paid for the poll?’” she said.
The landline and cellphone call poll was taken from 400 likely Republican primary election voters and with a margin of error of 4.9%, according to the Barlow campaign.
The main prompt asks, “If the Republican Primary election for Wyoming Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?”
Respondents could give answers in three categories for each of the four candidates. For example, for Barlow they could choose “Definitely Barlow,” “Probably Barlow,” or “Lean Barlow.”
They could also choose different variations of undecided.
“Since we don't have the poll's methodology, I would say that this poll is obviously being released by a campaign, so we would advise voters to evaluate it accordingly,” wrote Aguiar. “Our campaign is more interested in what we're hearing from Wyoming citizens at town halls and community events across the state.”
Aguiar said campaigns release internal polling “to tell a story.”
“We respect that. Our campaign is focused, though, on earning votes, not headlines,” wrote Aguiar, adding that no one appears to have gathered 50% of voters and the race has room for “a lot of movement.”
Attack Ads
A political action group (PAC) called Women For Responsible Government Action has run multiple attack ads against Barlow, and favorable ads supporting Degenfelder in recent weeks.
This PAC bears a similar name to one linked to Hageman’s campaign for U.S. Senate, “Women for Responsible Government PAC.”
But the group launching TV ads against Barlow is a 501(c)4 issue group run by Hageman’s allies, not Hageman, according to a Thursday text message from Hageman’s campaign advisor Tim Murtaugh.
Murtaugh said Hageman does not control the TV-ad-buying PAC, but it “often aligns with her views, including protecting Wyoming’s children from permanent genital mutilation and preventing coercive gender identity education for kindergarteners.”
Jones said Thursday on Degenfelder’s behalf that the superintendent isn’t aligned with either the action PAC or the PAC funding Hageman’s Senate run.
"Megan is not involved with either organization, and her campaign is not permitted to coordinate with either of them,” wrote Jones. “She is focused on her own campaign and her positive message of making Wyoming more affordable, growing our legacy industries and protecting Wyoming values."
The PAC has run ads touting Degenfelder as a “strong leader” who has stood with Trump, fought for school choice, getting “pornography out of our libraries” and keeping men out of girls’ sports.
Degenfelder has not worked as a legislator and has passed no laws toward those goals. She has backed legislation toward those ends, however.
Soon after she became superintendent she announced efforts to keep sexually-explicit books out of school libraries. That issue had exploded into public controversy in 2022 and 2023.
Degenfelder had denounced the materials while still campaigning.
Why Ads?
The attack ads lend credibility to Barlow’s favorable poll results, longtime politico and former Assistant Interior Secretary Rob Wallace told Cowboy State Daily in a Tuesday phone interview.
“The fact that Eric has been attacked so hard the last two-to-three weeks tells me the opposition knows that these poll numbers are valid, or similar,” said Wallace.
He clarified, saying that with “dark money” or independent PACs, people generally don’t know who’s behind them.
Wallace also said it wouldn’t serve Barlow to dispatch bad poll numbers at this phase of the race.
Barlow emphasized the ads and the PAC money behind some of them as well.
“Eric Barlow is winning this race and pulling away while taking five times more in hostile media spending than any other candidate,” says a Tuesday statement by his campaign.
The statement says Barlow’s campaign team has spent $80,688 on radio and TV ads – about $10,200 more than Degenfelder.
But Women for Responsible Government Action has spent $202,265 and Wyoming’s Turn PAC has spent $149,815 on TV, cable and satellite messaging either backing Degenfelder or opposing Barlow, the statement says.
“The outside groups are blanketing every media market with lies about Eric Barlow’s record reaching Wyoming, Denver, Salt Lake, Idaho Falls, and Rapid City cable zones,” the statement says, “while Barlow has held a disciplined broadcast and radio footprint.”
The statement asserts that “out-of-state dark money is not moving the race; it is hurting Degenfelder and hardening support in Barlow's favor.”
What He Actually Voted For
One of the PAC’s ads claims that Barlow voted to allow sexual orientation and gender identity to be taught to kindergarteners and to allow sex change procedures “to be done on kids.”
The record tells a different story.
Barlow voted against the 2023 Senate File 111, which would have criminalized parents and doctors for their roles in transitioning children’s genders medically.
The language was inadequate, he said at the time, calling the bill’s definitions ill suited for its purpose.
Barlow had nothing but praise for the 2023 bill Chloe’s Law, however, and voted in favor of it. The bill sought to strip violating medical professionals of their licenses.
“This bill I find to be very precise,” said Barlow at the time.
The House Appropriations Committee killed Chloe’s Law that year after the Senate voted 26-5 in its favor. But a later version of it became law in 2024 — with Barlow voting aye once again.
"I absolutely believe minors need to be protected form physically altering surgeries, period," Barlow said Tuesday. He noted that the bill has exemptions allowing treatments for kids with intersex designations or conditions, and puberty blockers for kids with precocious puberty.
Barlow had, as the ad notes in a subtext, voted against the 2023 Senate File 117. It sought to ban teaching of gender ideology to public-school kids in grades through kindergarten through third grade.
But Barlow voted in favor of that bill’s 2024 successor, Senate File 9, which became law.
The sequel legislation bans schools from teaching sexual orientation or gender identity without prior permission, and compels schools to notify parents if their children experience psychological changes, which may include a newly-voiced transgender identity.
He told Cowboy State Daily on Tuesday that the 2024 bill was simply written better.
"I read the bills, right," said Barlow. "Read the bills. Not just who it protects but how it protects them."
The 2024 bill was "a much stronger bill and much more protective of Wyoming kids, which they deserve," he said.
Not Surprised At All
Blake hasn’t built the name recognition of the other three candidates and in a Tuesday phone call, and said he was unsurprised to find his name left out of the Barlow campaign’s announcement.
Blake is running as a “purple” Republican, and said he’d love to keep Wyoming as it is. He cast himself as pragmatic.
“I think a poll can say whatever you want it to say,” said Blake. “With that being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if Eric is in the lead. He’s a damn good guy.”
Clair McFarland can be reached at clair@cowboystatedaily.com.
