Chuck Gray, a man who has been chasing an office for years, may win the Republican nomination for U.S. Representative with a little over 20 percent of the vote.
The candidate field is huge.
The Secretary of State’s website lists the following candidates in this order: Bo Biteman, Chuck Gray, David Giralt, Frank Chapman, Jillian Balow, Keith B. Goodenough, Kevin Christensen, Reid Rasner, Richard Dodson and Steve Friess.
Gray, fresh with another boxcar load of family money, is the statistical leader, according to polling information shared with me.
While Chuck has large negatives, he has a solid backing of conservative Republicans who are impressed with his red-meat approach to politics.
He has been campaigning for an office in Wyoming for many years, now, and has a firm base of support from the MAGA Republicans. So far, the holy grail has eluded him, because he has not received the endorsement of Donald Trump.
Depending on whom you consult, billionaire heir Steve Friess, Reid Rasner and Jillian Balow come in next, in the polling.
To be clear, no campaign has shared their actual polling data with me.
My information comes from candidates who want to sway my opinion to their favor. Take my insights for what they are worth.
The rest of the field poll in near-single digits.
Wyoming has typically shown disdain for rich people from Teton County, rolling into Wyoming and running for political office. Attempts for millionaires to appear as blue-collar men of the people somehow come off hollow.
Frank Chapman, a rich midwestern attorney who bought a ranch and moved to Teton County is supported by a PAC running a social media campaign that consists of a country music video, and opens with, “Frank rides the range at the break of dawn, loves this land, knows right from wrong . . .”
He bought a guest ranch.
As for his bona fides as a cowboy, my cowboy friends just shake their heads.
It seems like a day doesn’t pass that I don’t receive a mailer from Steve Friess. Friess might have the biggest boxcar of money. He talks about a place where we can raise our kids, a young man can learn a trade, get a good job in mining or minerals, and work with President Trump to take Wyoming from good to great. He tries to characterize himself as an “outsider” and successful businessman.
I have a hard time seeing Friess running a backhoe, driving a haul truck or fighting fire. I suspect his campaign is having trouble getting more traction for that reason.
Reid Rasner is running an interesting campaign aimed at aligning with Trump values and attacking "China" Chuck Gray. His physical ability videos are something I’ve not seen in Wyoming politics. We’ll see if running sprints and flipping tires connect with the Wyoming voters. They appear to crack the social media algorithm.
The other candidates seem to be suffering from lack of money. If your family does not have hundreds of thousands of dollars to dump into campaign advertising, it is hard to break through all the political noise.
Bo Biteman has been in Wyoming politics long enough to rise to President of the Senate.
Give him credit: he steered the Senate through some real minefields last session. But Biteman's association with the Hazlitt coalition of Young Americans for Liberty, a Freedom Caucus ally, is a pedigree hard to shake.
Voters will have to decide if he's a steady hand or just Freedom Caucus with better manners.
Jillian Balow was elected into a Superintendent of Public Instruction's office that was the center of a political firestorm. She calmed the storm.
She was good enough at the job that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin poached her to come run his schools department for a while.
Now she's back, asking voters to send her back East, again. The question is whether competence or loyalty is the selling point this Republican primary.
I like some of the other candidates and have no idea about others. Column length limits prohibit full analysis of their campaigns. Given the clutter in the advertising airwaves, it is going to be hard for any of the others to break out.
What could happen to change the current polling results?
First, the other candidates could voluntarily solidify their support for one candidate. If the race pares down to a two- or three-candidate race, the election becomes a different story.
Second, Donald Trump could endorse one of the candidates. That endorsement might be enough to tip the scale. This race, in many ways, has become a race for Trump’s approval.
Third, there could be some sort of July surprise that sways people. As candidates become increasingly desperate based on polling data, you will see increasingly shrill behavior.
As it sits now, without a major shift in the electorate, we can get ready for Chuck Gray as our Republican nominee for U.S. Representative.
Tom Lubnau served in the Wyoming Legislature from 2004 to 2015 and is a former Speaker of the House. He can be reached at: YourInputAppreciated@gmail.com
