This year’s U.S. House Republican primary may be the craziest political race in Wyoming history.
I can make this claim after watching statewide races for the past 56 years.
Sure, there have been more interesting races. And yes, there have been many tightly fought contests. Most of those races were civil and issues-oriented. But by just about any measure, this one is downright nuts.
Money and nastiness may ultimately decide the winner.
The widely presumed front-runner is Secretary of State Chuck Gray. Hot on his trail is Jackson businessman Steve Friess, who may have already spent over $2 million on the race.
Some experts predict 130,000 votes will be cast in this GOP (Grand Old Party, meaning Republican) primary race. I disagree. I don't think it will even reach 115,000 votes.
Note that the exception to all this is four years ago when 172,047 people voted in the GOP primary. That was the year that the whole world was watching Liz Cheney get pummeled for her feud with Donald Trump. Yes, that was a crazy race, too.
Four years earlier in 2018, just 117,000 votes were cast in an intensely-fought Republican primary.
These same experts think the winner will get 25,000 to 30,000 votes. Again, I disagree. The winner could get as few as 19,000 votes.
This is true retail politics. It is realistically possible for a candidate to shake the hand of every person who votes for them.
Big Bucks Being Spent
The two Jackson candidates are spending untold amounts on this election. Friess and Frank Chapman are burning through money at a rate not seen since Liz Cheney spent more than $4 million back in 2022.
Those statewide mailers reportedly can cost nearly $100,000 each. I wish the candidates would spend that money on local Wyoming media. It would be cheaper and probably provide more bang for the buck. Plus, it would help the local economy. But I digress.
It seems like I find a new flyer from Friess in my mailbox almost every other day. Like his dad, the late Foster Friess back in 2018, he is running a positive campaign. No attacks on the other guys in his campaign.
Just remember that 29,000 Wyoming Republicans voted for a candidate named “Friess” just eight years ago.
The real wild card in this race will be if President Donald Trump endorses someone. If so, it could be Friess, whose family is close to the president. Trump endorsed Steve’s dad back in 2018 in that race.
Meanwhile, lawyer and guest ranch owner Chapman is spending vast amounts of money on mailers, television, and internet advertising. It has to make an impact.
The previous spending record belonged to Liz Cheney, who spent more than $200 per vote.
Chapman and Reid Rasner may end up beating that record, as far as money spent per vote acquired.
Some observers think upwards of $20 million will be spent in total. Wow!
Balow Under the Radar
I have long believed that Jillian Balow was capable of pulling off a win despite being outspent by the other candidates.
She has at least four things going for her.
First, she has already won two statewide elections. She is an experienced candidate with statewide name recognition.
Second, she is the only woman in the race. Wyoming has shown it likes electing women to represent the state in Congress.
Third, some voters might confuse her Balow name with gubernatorial candidate Eric Barlow, to Jillian's advantage. There are thousands of Barlow signs around the state.
Four, there will be a significant crossover vote from independents and Democrats. Of the 10 candidates running in the Republican primary for the U.S. House, Balow may end up being the most attractive option for those voters.
Her biggest problem is being outspent by 20-to-1 from her well-heeled competitors. In today’s political climate money talks like never before.
Crazy Campaign
Secretary of State Gray and his nemesis, candidate Rasner, have taken their personal dislike of each other to a whole new level. I'm not sure I have ever seen such a heated political feud played out so publicly.
Rasner calls Gray "China Chuck," which strikes me as unfair. Rasner claims that, as Secretary of State, Gray has approved Chinese companies using Wyoming as a base. In reality, this probably has been going on long before Gray took office.
It makes for great theater, though, and it has to be driving Gray crazy.
Before this campaign is over, it almost feels like it could result in a fistfight. I hope Gray knows judo because Rasner has a huge physical height and weight advantage if it comes to that. Let's hope cooler heads prevail.
Both men are spending in the millions and appear to have even more money available if they choose to tap into other reserves.
Remember, here in Wyoming, politics isn’t political – it’s personal! That kernel of wisdom courtesy of the late U. S. Senator Al Simpson.
In Conclusion
This race has attracted 10 candidates including one of the most hard-core Democrats in all of Wyoming, Keith Goodenough from Casper. That is symptomatic of why I call this campaign one of the craziest I have ever seen.
Other GOP candidates in this race are working hard but have too little time to make it to the front tier. They include Bo Biteman, Ranchester; David Giralt, Mills; Kevin Christensen, Casper; and Richard Dodson, Sundance.
Wyoming voters are in for a wild finish over the next four weeks.
Bill can be reached at Bill@CowboyStateDaily.com
