The late U.S. Senator Al Simpson described Cowboy State political campaigning as: “In Wyoming, politics is not political, it’s personal.”
Well, this year’s Republican U.S. House primary election will, indeed, be very personal. It is possible that each candidate will meet individually with all of their individual voters.
Because the voting totals will be small and the field of candidates so large, it is possible that the winner might get less than 30,000 and still win. And here in Wyoming, a win in the primary is almost a 100 percent cinch to win the general.
Five Insiders, Four Outsiders running
The race features two veteran statewide vote getters, Secretary of State Chuck Gray of Casper and former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow of Cheyenne. These folks have won statewide races and you could assume they are the front runners.
But hold on there.
Reid Rasner of Casper also has already ran a statewide race, losing big to U S. Sen. John Barrasso by 70,494 to 25,427 in 2024.
Sheridan’s Bo Biteman is the retiring president of the State Senate. He has a good following among Republicans around the state.
As a former “outsider” in a statewide race, I think I can pick out others in that mold, including Frank Chapman of Moran, John Romero-Martinez of Cheyenne, and two military veterans David Giralt and Kevin Christensen of Casper.
The ninth candidate sort of fits a unique niche I will call an insider-outsider, Steve Friess of Jackson. Friess has plenty of name recognition as a result of his late father Foster Friess running for governor in 2018. That campaign also saw him spending about $2.7 million making sure everyone in Wyoming learned the Friess name.
He is an outsider because he is a novice when it comes to politics. I assume he has access to the Friess money, which is gigantic, and the Friess political machine, which is also formidable.
In a tight race, Friess becomes a player. I know Steve and he is a decent man with high ideals. His politics would not embarrass Wyoming if elected, plus because of family connections, he would have the ear of President Donald Trump.
My Crystal Ball
I view this race as a horse race.
If you assume that less than 100,000 votes will be cast, it is possible that the winner would get less than 30,000 votes and win.
We know Gray has a dedicated, devoted, and super-loyal constituency. He is an activist and has been front and center in Wyoming politics for the last decade. He has the money and the moxie to win this race.
Balow is a real dark horse for now. She was a terrific campaigner in the past and easily won her statewide races. Many folks think this seat should be occupied by a woman, following Harriet Hageman and Cynthia Lummis, most recently, and Barbara Cubin, back in the day. As the only woman in this race, and with a race this tight, her gender, alone, could propel her to the win.
Poor Reid Rasner. He is so aggressive. Is it possible that a politician might want to be elected a little too much? He keeps suing people (not a good strategy usually) and his attack ads on Chuck Gray might just pull votes away from Gray but send them to someone else.
What is the most dangerous thing in political races? A dark horse with lots of money to spend. That describes Chapman, who says he will put $500,000 into the campaign. Folks, that is a lot of money and could pull enough votes away from others to tip this election. Unfortunately for him, probably not enough to get him elected.
He is NOT Frank Chapman who is a Casper lawyer, who would be a great candidate, although he also is a staunch Democrat.
Biteman may suffer the same fate that so many previous House Speakers and Senate Presidents have discovered in the past. Although they are well-known in Cheyenne legislative functions, they are almost totally unknown around the state. He is an outstanding candidate, but will need to spend a lot of money if he is going to win.
That brings me back to Friess. Money, a political machine, a Trump connection (possible endorsement?) and an aggressive campaign makes him possibly viable.
The other three candidates will get some votes and will have more darned fun than they ever knew possible by participating in a statewide primary in Wyoming’s spring and summer.
I would urge voters to attend events and get to meet these folks. We thank them all for jumping into this race. Wyoming is the better for it.
Bill can be reached at bill@cowboystatedaily.com
