Two polls released Friday show there are no signs in Wyoming that former President Donald Trump’s popularity has diminished since 2020.
A Cygnal poll of 600 likely Wyoming general election voters shows Trump holding a 44 percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris. If this result remains consistent through the election, it would give Trump nearly identical results as 2020, when he won Wyoming by a 43.39% margin over President Joe Biden.
The University of Wyoming also released a poll Friday that shows 91% of self-identified Republicans in Wyoming supporting Trump. A total of 5% of Republicans said they’ll vote for Harris, while 4% said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
Republicans make up most of Wyoming’s voter electorate. As of Friday, 79% of the state’s 250,660 voters were registered as Republicans.
“Wyoming’s political landscape remains staunchly Republican, with a strong show of support for Donald Trump,” said Ryan Williamson, an assistant professor in UW’s School of Politics, Public Affairs and International Studies. “Our results indicate that almost 66% of Wyomingites plan to cast their ballots for Trump, reinforcing his continued popularity in the state.”
According to the UW poll, among independent voters in Wyoming, Harris is actually winning, holding a 6 percentage point lead over Trump. A total of 12% of independents said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
Democrats are showing near unanimous support for Harris, according to the poll, at 98%.
The UW poll was conducted from Sept. 24 to Oct. 27, yielding 739 responses from randomly selected Wyoming residents.
In the Cygnal poll conducted last Saturday through Monday, Trump was supported by a two-to-one margin among Wyoming Hispanic voters. This is significant as it does not align with how Hispanics nationally view Trump. A Florida International University poll released Friday shows Harris holding a 24 percentage point lead over Trump nationally among Hispanics.
Harris was viewed unfavorably by 70% of Wyoming respondents in the Cygnal poll.
Other Politicians
In the Wyoming race for U.S. Senate, Sen. John Barrasso is leading Democratic challenger Scott Morrow by 44 percentage points, according to the Cygnal poll.
If this poll holds consistent for the election, it would mark the largest margin of victory for Barrasso in a general election since 2012.
In the UW poll, Barrasso holds a 42% approval rating and 29% disapproval rating. U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis has a 30% approval rating and 25% disapproval rating.
U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman has the highest approval rating among Wyoming’s congressional delegation with 47% of Wyomingites showing satisfaction for her work and 27% expressing disapproval.
In the Cygnal poll, a total of 50% of respondents said they view Gov. Mark Gordon favorably, compared to 36% who view him unfavorably. If this polling is accurate, it would represent a marked decline in Gordon’s popularity since a Morning Consult poll conducted in November 2023 showed him with a 74% approval rating.
According to the UW poll, 41% of respondents approve of Gordon while 22% disapprove.
Other Topics
UW also polled Wyomingites on a few different topics including abortion, guns and confidence in elections.
On the topic of abortion, 59% of respondents said they feel that abortion should be permitted beyond situations of rape, incest and danger to the mother’s life, and 39% said women should always have access to abortion as a matter of choice.
These stances don’t align with a bill passed by the Wyoming Legislature in 2023 banning all abortions in the state except for situations of rape or incest. This law is now being challenged in court.
Among self-identified Republicans, the most common response, at 43%, was that abortions should only be allowed in instances of rape, incest or when the mother’s life is at risk. Nearly a third of all respondents said they support allowing abortion only in instances of rape, incest or when the mother’s life is at risk, and 11% said abortion shouldn’t be allowed under any circumstance.
According to the UW poll, 58% of Wyomingites support the idea of requiring firearm sales to be reported and recorded, while 28% oppose this measure. When it comes to licensing requirements, 49% of respondents believe that requiring a license to purchase or possess firearms or ammunition is a good idea, compared to 39% who view it unfavorably.
On the topic of gun-free zones, 36% think eliminating these zones is beneficial, whereas 43% disagree.
Only 58% of Wyoming residents believe that vote counts across the country will be very or somewhat reliable, according to the UW poll. Wyoming voters appear to have much larger confidence in local elections however, with 88% saying they believe the vote count in Wyoming will be reliable and a similar 89% saying they’ll trust the vote counts in their local counties.
“These findings highlight a community that values and trusts its democratic processes, with high confidence reported at both state and county levels,” Williamson says.
The survey also found that only 1% of residents support conducting elections entirely by mail. In Colorado, every registered voter receives a mailed ballot but they can still vote in person if they like. A total of 16% of respondents said voting should only be conducted at the polls.
When it comes to political violence, 55% of respondents consider it a major problem while 44% find it a minor issue or not an issue at all.
A total of 78% said they don’t find political violence acceptable, while 22% said it’s justifiable in certain circumstances, consistent with a growing U.S. trend with support for the latter.
Leo Wolfson can be reached at leo@cowboystatedaily.com.
