In the first significant poll of Wyoming’s primary election season, Secretary of State Chuck Gray leads a crowded GOP U.S. House race with 21% support.
Casper businessman Reid Rasner is second at 14%, Teton County philanthropist Steve Friess at 10%, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow at 8%, and state Senate President Bo Biteman at 7%, according to a poll memo Gray sent to Cowboy State Daily.
The poll also shows 33% of those surveyed are “hard undecided.”
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, a survey and research firm that ran polls for President Donald Trump’s campaigns, compiled the poll of 400 Wyoming Republican voters from May 13-16.
Casper-based veteran Kevin Christensen followed at 5%, with Moran rancher Frank Chapman at 1% and David Giralt at less than 1%.
The poll lists former state Rep. John Romero-Martinez at less than 1%, but Romero-Martinez did not register to run for the seat by Friday’s 5 p.m. deadline.
But What ‘Information’?
The pollster’s methodology says the survey takers also gave voters “information” about Gray, Rasner and Friess.
Gray told Cowboy State Daily on Monday that the “information” included “different points on our records” but upon inquiry, he did not list those points by publication time.
After that, Gray’s support jumped to 48% over “hard undecided” at 22%, with Rasner and Friess falling to 3% and 6% respectively.
Balow, whose record was apparently not included in the “information” discussion with each voter, rose to second place in the post-information survey at 8%.
“Chuck Gray is currently best positioned to win this race,” the pollster’s memo asserts.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates lists the margin of error at 4.9%.
Half the survey recipients were male, half were female, and 90% were white, says the poll memo.
“This race is about focusing on the truth — my track record of advancing the America First, conservative priorities of the people of Wyoming and my record of getting those priorities to the finish line,” wrote Gray in a statement.
“I do not back down, even in the face of false attacks from insiders and the radical Left. That is what the people of Wyoming want, and that is why we are in a strong lead,” he added.
Kinda Early
Rob Wallace, a longtime Wyoming politico, cast skepticism on a poll conducted so early in the race.
The filing period for candidates ended Friday, and the primary election is Aug. 18.
Wallace served as assistant secretary to the U.S. Department of the Interior during the first Trump administration and years prior worked multiple political campaigns as an advisor for the late U.S. Sen. Malcolm Wallop.
He also ran for Congress in 1994 and finished second in a crowded primary to Rep. Barbara Cubin.
“Polling this early in the campaign is like endorsements,” he said. “It’s good to have favorable information, but the real part of the race isn’t going to get going until probably after the Fourth of July.”
Wallace also hesitated to attach significance to the poll since the “information" the Fabrizio team gave voters is unknown.
“Without really understanding all the pieces of the poll, it’s hard to give a complete assessment of what it means,” he said.
Now that the filing period has ended, the other nine candidates in the Republican U.S. House primary race are going to burst into public view as much as they can, Wallace said.
Between the poll and the filing deadline, two more candidates registered: Keith Goodenough and Richard Dodson.
That puts the primary race at 10 contenders.
Whoever wins that race will have to face the Democratic candidate, plus the Libertarian nominee Shawn Johnson, who gained momentum when his party selected him unanimously at its Sunday convention.
“There are a couple reasons for putting a favorable poll out” at this phase, said Wallace. One reason could be to dissuade others from running; and another could be to reassure one’s base and supporters.
“It’s like a good-news story for the people you want to attract,” he added.
Hey, Trump
The big unknown, said Wallace, is what Trump will do.
The president has endorsed Megan Degenfelder for governor over her GOP opponents.
He has not endorsed anyone in the crowded U.S. House primary race.
Friess, Rasner, Gray, Balow, and Biteman all have dispatched messaging indicating alignment with Trump.
Rasner and Gray tout themselves as MAGA-style candidates. Biteman has for years had a collaborative relationship with the president. And Friess reportedly helped Trump formulate executive orders ahead of his 2017 inauguration.
Christensen is a strong outlier there: he condemned the president’s April social media post of an AI-generated image depicting Trump as a Jesus-like figure, healing an ailing man while others circle him in gestures of prayer.
A Trump endorsement, said Wallace, “could be a game-changer if he decides to do it. And maybe he won’t — maybe he won’t endorse anybody.”
Clair McFarland can be reached at clair@cowboystatedaily.com.
