In a line often credited to Mark Twain, though nobody can quite prove it, “there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Keep that in mind, because we are about to take a walk through a statistical rabbit hole.
All across Wyoming this election year, politicians are pounding their chests about runaway spending. They say they are here to save you.
Lies.
Strip away the noise, the speeches, and the self-congratulation, and one fact remains. The budget passed this year looks almost exactly like the governor’s proposed budget.
After 40 hours of debate, the Freedom Caucus led House folded. Completely. Like a dog rolling over. Rhetoric and bluster flushed in the toilet.
Now, those same folks are out bragging how they saved Wyoming.
More lies.
So when candidates start boasting, it is time to switch on your internal nonsense detector. The numbers tell a very different story.
Let’s go back a few years.
In the 2009 to 2010 biennium, Wyoming appropriated $8.51 billion in total funds. Total funds included federal dollars, highways, water and many other things Wyoming has not control over.
This number also does not include the billions of dollars in appropriations to savings.
But a dollar back then bought more than it does now. Adjust those dollars using CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and that $8.51 billion becomes $13.11 billion in today’s terms.
Now compare that to the current 2027 to 2028 budget of $11.27 billion that was recently passed.
Same dollars. Same scale.
The result is simple. Today’s budget is $1.84 billion smaller than it was 17 years ago.
Smaller.
That is a 14.1 percent reduction in real spending. Wyoming had already tightened its belt long before anyone showed up claiming to be the hero of fiscal restraint.
Statistics.
The general fund tells an even sharper story. Those are the dollars lawmakers actually control.
Adjusted for inflation, the 2009 to 2010 general fund was $5.39 billion. Today it is $3.49 billion.
That is a $1.9 billion reduction. That’s a 35.2% reduction.
Again, smaller.
In real terms, state spending below pre-Covid levels. That reduction happened without any recent political movement riding in to save the day.
Now, you will hear another talking point. The budget is up compared to the last biennium.
That claim is only half true.
Total spending went down slightly. The current budget sits at $10.09 billion compared to $10.25 billion last time. That is a modest decrease.
But look closer.
The general fund, the part lawmakers truly control, grew from $3.14 billion to $3.79 billion.
That is a $306.36 million increase. Nearly ten percent.
The area of the budget that had been shrinking the most grew.
So let’s be clear.
If someone tells you they are the reason Wyoming is spending less, remember this: the long term trend toward lower real spending was already in motion.
If someone calls the governor a tax and spend liberal, the numbers do not back it up.
If someone claims to be a spending hawk, ask them about the extra $306 million in general fund spending that just passed on their watch.
And when politicians start tying Wyoming to national talking points, like claiming the budget needs “DOGEing,” remember this. Wyoming is not Washington, D.C. It never has been.
This state has been run conservatively for decades. Long before many of today’s loudest voices blew into the state to tell us how to run it.
Statistics are powerful. They can illuminate the truth. They can also hide it.
This election season, expect a flood of carefully crafted phrases designed to win your vote, not earn your trust.
Most people are busy. They do not have time to dig through budgets and inflation tables. The political class is counting on inattention.
So we all have a job to do.
Ask questions. Look at the numbers. Do not settle for the headline version of the truth.
Nothing less than Wyoming’s future depends on your diligence.
Tom Lubnau served in the Wyoming Legislature from 2004 to 2015 and is a former Speaker of the House. He can be reached at: YourInputAppreciated@gmail.com
