Kaylin Birdwell noticed something funny with turkey prices when she was scoping out a turkey breast in the frozen foods section at a grocery store in Cheyenne.
With just she and her husband this year for Thanksgiving, Birdwell didn’t feel like she needed an entire turkey. Reaching for a turkey breast roast instead seemed to make a little more sense, and she thought it might be a little cheaper than buying a whole bird.
That’s a time-honored savvy shoppers move for the holiday. But this year, shoppers in a rush might fail to notice that prices are doing a weird dance.
Birdwell’s turkey breast roast was going for $4.32 per pound, which made her roast $12.97. That was a head-scratcher, because the nearby Butterball whole birds weren’t too much more than that, selling for less than $1 per pound.
In fact, a small Butterball whole bird was just a buck more, at $13 and some change.
That had Birdwell pulling up Butterball birds to inspect the labels with a furrowed brow as she tried to puzzle out what was going on in an otherwise ordinary American supermarket aisle in Cheyenne.
What Birdwell had inadvertently discovered is the power of what grocers call a loss-leader.
The term refers to a product, like milk, that a grocer plans to sell at a steep discount, or perhaps even a loss, to entice shoppers into its store.
The theory is that most shoppers are not going to hop around from store to store when they do their weekly grocery shopping. They’re more likely to just spend all of their grocery money at the store that had the best price for a staple or star item.
In the case of Thanksgiving, the star item is still turkey for many. That has lots of grocery stores offering whole turkeys at comparable prices, like 97 cents a pound for Butterballs or 84 cents for a Jennie-O.
Butterball birds were going for 97 cents a pound — about half their actual cost. (Renee Jean, Cowboy State Daily) 
The turkey breast roast has been a time-honored way of saving a little money while still having turkey for Thanksgiving. They would usually cost less than a whole bird, since they're much smaller. And they're a little easier to manage in the kitchen. But with bird flu wiping out so many turkeys, the price per pound is up substantially for them. Whole birds, meanwhile, are being treated as loss leaders by many grocers to attract shoppers, making whole birds cheaper per pound than turkey breast roasts. (Renee Jean, Cowboy State Daily) 
A turkey breast roast is going for $4.32 per pound for a $12.97 roast, while one of the smaller, whole butterball birds was just $13 and some change. The disparity came about because avian flu has wiped out turkey flocks, making the base price of turkey a lot more expensive. But whole birds are treated like loss leaders, to attract shoppers, so they're available for as little as 84 cents a pound. (Renee Jean, Cowboy State Daily) 
Jennie O turkeys were going for 84 cents a pound — about half their actual cost. (Renee Jean, Cowboy State Daily)
Bird Flu Has Hurt Turkey Flocks
Ignoring the steep and strategic markdowns, turkey prices are actually up. Way up.
That’s mostly because a wave of avian bird flu has decimated turkey herds, killing off supply. But there’s also a bit of inflation coming into play as well, Finance Buzz Senior Digital Marketing Analyst Josh Koebert told Cowboy State Daily.
“In Wyoming, the (baseline) average cost for a 15-pound frozen turkey is $33.35, which is about 4% cheaper than the national average and in line with states like Georgia,” he said.
Year over year, that’s a 1.5% increase from last year.
“That’s actually really good, considering the national inflation rate is about 3% and the nationwide change was like 11.2% more expensive.”
Koebert’s research looked specifically at Butterball turkeys, which are typically present in all 50 states, allowing for easier comparisons of baseline per pound turkey prices.
The research, though, doesn’t consider store specials to attract customers.
“We just do the base pricing, what it is for most of the holiday season,” he said. “Obviously, frozen turkeys are an incredibly seasonal product. They are not in stores for like nine, or 10 months of the year. They’re here for Thanksgiving and Christmas.”
Watching promotions can lead to great deals, Koebert acknowledged.
“I’ve seen it as low as like 49 cents a pound, if you find it at the right time,” Koebert said. “But there’s usually a four to seven-day stretch where that price is available.”
Why Turkeys Are Still A Great Value
Unless the grocery store decides the product will be a loss leader. That can lead to whole birds being available at a discount for most of the Thanksgiving shopping season.
All of which helps explain the disparities Birdwell was seeing in the price of her turkey breast roast versus a whole bird. The latter were ranging from $13 to $17, depending on how big the bird was.
A turkey breast roast, on the other hand, isn’t typically considered a loss-leader. It’s more of a premium, convenience product, and not marketed with steep discounts at all.
In years past, a turkey breast roast has often been considered a good option for those who are perhaps not keen on lots of turkey leftovers or are on a budget. That’s because the overall price of the breast, all things being equal, would normally be significantly cheaper than a whole bird, with a still respectable presentation on a platter.
For those who love turkey, though, a whole bird has generally always been — and still is — the better economic value on a per-pound basis. There will just be lots of leftovers if the bird is only feeding two or three people.
That’s highly welcome to some. Smart cooks can stretch an entire bird into a lot of meals ahead by making things like turkey noodle soup, turkey pot pie, and turkey tetrazzini.
That makes the whole bird convenient over the long haul, even if cooking a whole bird might be a lot less convenient than a small turkey breast roast in the short run.
The big thing to know about cooking a whole bird is that breast meat and thigh meat do not cook at the same rate.
About The Rest Of The Basket
Michelle Hoover is among shoppers in the whole bird crowd. She stumbled onto a better value this year, thanks to her philosophy that her most important consideration is getting the largest bird she possibly can.
“I’ve got a big family, and I like leftovers,” she said. “So, I always get the big ones.”
For her, that typically means scooping up her turkey the moment they arrive at the store. She doesn’t wait for specials, because by then the selection is too picked over. She wants to nab the biggest turkey possible.
“So, I got my turkey a couple of weeks ago,” she said.
The price, she noticed, was very close to the same as what she paid last year, around $15 — a great deal considering the baseline price for that bird is really $33.
But what was different for Hoover this year were all the other items that go into her Thanksgiving basket. There was a little bit of sticker shock there.
“I usually spend about $100,” she said. “But this year, I spent more, even though I got the same stuff. On top of that, I still need to get the dinner rolls.”
Hoover believes she will be spending at least $25 more than last year, once she has acquired all the rolls she needs.
That will be the reality for most Thanksgiving shoppers this year, Koebert said.
“If you look at the list of what was in the Thanksgiving basket last year versus this year, it’s not only fewer items; it’s fewer name-brand items and more store-brand or generics as well,” he said.
Turkeys may be channeling prices of long ago as the carrot to attract shoppers, but that’s not the case for many other Thanksgiving favorites. Cranberry sauce, for example, is higher year over year, thanks to tariffs on cans.
John Fiorelli, a shopper who was picking up a turkey in Cheyenne, puts it much more succinctly.
“The prices will scare you half to death,” he said, shaking his head.
Grocery trips that used to cost him about $100 are now more in the neighborhood of $200.
But, for Thanksgiving so far, he feels like he’s been able to get most of his basket of goods for only a little more than last year.
His tactics are a time-honored approach. Store brands here and there, and loss leaders on popular staples like turkey and yams.
That’s the best way for savvy shoppers to keep Thanksgiving meal costs at levels they’ll still feel grateful for when they are enjoying their turkey dinners at home.
Renée Jean can be reached at renee@cowboystatedaily.com.
