Tuesday’s primary election in Wyoming could be pivotal, not only for what the next state Legislature will look like, but also what kind of election activity the state wants to reward and condemn moving forward.
The largest prize at stake in the short term will be the makeup of the Wyoming Legislature as it’s split between two main factions of the state Republican Party — the Wyoming Caucus and the farther-right Wyoming Freedom Caucus.
Two years ago before the 2022 primary elections, the Freedom Caucus was a vocal but still relatively small group. After the 2022 primary, the group gained more than 10 seats, giving it momentum to become a major force in the Wyoming House — and politics in general — over the past two years.
What’s at stake now is the potential for the Freedom Caucus to add enough seats to where it gains the majority of Republican chairs in the House.
An even better scenario for the group would be to gain a majority of seats overall in the House, but that would require about a 10-seat flip, which is an unlikely — but not impossible — task.
State Rep. Jeremy Haroldson, R-Wheatland, vice chair of the Freedom Caucus, sees Tuesday’s election as determining if there will be a shift or not in the overall direction of the Legislature.
“If not this year, I don’t know when,” he said.
Although the Legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, many members of the Freedom Caucus argue it’s still not conservative enough.
“It’s been a longtime viewpoint where the Legislature has driven down a moderate line with its policy making,” Haroldson said. “It’ll be up to the people of Wyoming to decide if they’re OK with that and wanting that, or are looking to take a more conservative direction.”
Members of the Wyoming Caucus have countered that they’re more fiscally prudent through their general support for investing money into savings and other public services to help the state prepare for leaner fiscal years in the future.
State Rep. Cody Wylie, R-Rock Springs, a member of the Wyoming Caucus, believes the 2024 primary election will determine the future direction of the Republican Party as a whole in Wyoming.
“That’s what the voters are going to decide,” he said.
Outside Money
House Speaker and Senate candidate Albert Sommers, R-Pinedale, and Cody state House candidate David Hill believe the 2024 election will come down to how much out-of-state influences are rewarded for engaging in Wyoming politics.
Out-of-state groups spent spent big in this year’s primary election, usually targeting candidates with negative ad campaigns that sometimes stretched the truth or pushed blatantly wrong claims.
Sommers likened it to rewarding a dog or horse for bad behavior. If candidates win off a campaign where they went after their opponents, it’s unlikely they’ll turn away from such a tactic in the future.
“I hope Wyomingites get tired of negative campaigning,” Sommers said. “If they don’t, that will make a difference over time. Worst of all, the bad dog gets trained.”
Hill believes Tuesday’s election represents something even deeper.
“It’s a question of the soul of the state as these out-of-state groups push and peddle their influence in Wyoming,” he said.
Hill said due to Wyoming’s small population, individual voters wield much more power than other states, but with that power also comes the heightened possibility of outside groups waging the same influence.
“People might just have to get good at not getting swept away by these out-of-state groups,” he said.
When it comes to outside groups, Haroldson said he’s most concerned with these groups impacting policy during the legislative session.
Laramie County Republican Party State Committeeman Dallas Tyrrell said it’s been difficult to get average voters to realize what’s at stake in Tuesday’s election.
“People don’t pay attention and don’t understand the ramifications,” he said.
But the negative campaigns weren’t limited to out-of-state groups.
The campaign arm of the Freedom Caucus caught heat for some of its mailers and the Wyoming Stockmen For Liberty has also caused frustration from some of its ad campaigns. This group that targeted Sommers campaign received donations from state Sens. Cheri Steinmetz, R-Linge, Bob Ide, R-Casper, and Larry Hicks, R-Baggs.
Rep. Tony Locke, R-Casper, believes the high-stakes nature of this year’s primary is fueling some of the animosity.
“We’re seeing the tension in the campaigns and the intensity of vitriol between the parties,” he said.
Last Minute Campaigning
If you’re starting to feel fatigue from the many political door knockers and campaign mailers stuffing your mailbox this election season, you are not alone.
Wylie said he physically sees this fatigue at the doors he hits and in the general number of people who vote in his district, which is roughly 17%.
“Politics is such a dirty game, people become disenchanted,” he said.
Many have expressed concern that there will be a low turnout for this year’s primary without a competitive congressional race and a larger sense of voter apathy.
Haroldson believes voters make a real difference with every election and said their awareness has substantially increased since the COVID-19 pandemic and that the Freedom Caucus is a “household name,” which he believes is a testament to their mission.
“Every election, it becomes more and more important for people to go out and vote,” he said. “People can turn or shift history with every election.”
Wylie spent the last weekend of his campaign knocking on doors and attending the River Festival in Green River.
Haroldson gave a presentation about the candidates running in local races at his church.
Passions Rising
Over the weekend, a group of Freedom Caucus candidates held an impromptu parade through the streets of Cody, and specifically the neighborhoods where their opponents live. Hill said he found this very inappropriate.
“It was juvenile at best, and election interference at worst,” he said.
Casper resident Gina Douglas has been door-knocking against state Rep. Jeanette Ward, R-Casper, even though Douglas doesn’t even live in Ward’s district and is a Democrat. Ward is one of the most conservative members of the Freedom Caucus.
“The fact that I don’t live in Jeanette Ward’s district, that’s the point,” Douglas said. “The entire Casper community is misrepresented by the views of her representation of the district.”
Leo Wolfson can be reached at leo@cowboystatedaily.com.
