Homes under $1 million are practically nonexistent in the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, market, and the rare few that are available go fast.
That’s even as the latest Jackson Hole Real Estate report from the Viehman Group shows the $2 million to $3 million segment of the Jackson Hole market is the most stagnant right now.
“Buyers aren’t coming up (to that) is what we’re seeing,” Devon Viehman told Cowboy State Daily. “But I don’t think that (sellers) are going to lower their prices enough that we will ever see a huge inventory of less than a million again. It just doesn’t really exist anymore.”
Sales have dropped of 6% overall, according to the Viehman Group’s second-quarter 2024 report, even as overall inventory has risen 5%.
Residential vacant lots are down 25%, but single-home inventories are up by more at 15%, as are townhomes and condos, which are up 14%.
Normally, rising inventory would put significant downward pressure on prices, but this is Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It’s not a normal real estate market. It’s the epicenter of Teton County, the wealthiest in the nation. Not only that, it’s also leading the nation in an outdoor recreation economic boom.
Out of 234 listed properties, just 21% have lowered prices in 2024, despite about 38% of properties being on the market for more than a year.
Prices have been leveling off, Viehman said, adding that there’s no rush to buy now. That’s something Veihman has seen happen often during presidential election years.
“Buyers get nervous for whatever reason,” she said. “And then just the overall economy right now. Inflation and everything just costs so much more right now, so it’s making people really hesitant.”
That could result in some lower prices down the line, Viehman said.
“We’re seeing some appraisals coming in lower than properties are under contract for,” she said. “Sellers are having to renegotiate, so they might come down a little bit. But I don’t foresee a big market correction.”
Pandemic Prices Are Over
High prices and high interest rates have cut 80% of buyers out of the Jackson Hole market, Viehman said.
But that’s been offset by the lack of available inventory.
Demand at the right price point — aka anything less than $1 million — is still robust for Jackson Hole. There just are not many such properties.
Right now, there are just 10 condo/townhomes under $1 million and only six single-family homes less than $2 million on the market.
“Things that are priced to the market are still selling quickly,” she said.
Many sellers are hung up on COVID-19 pandemic prices, and retirements are on the line. That has sellers hoping they can wait out the market for prices more like what they saw during the pandemic.
“If sellers can get that out of their mind and realize that was just this little blip in time,” Viehman said. “If you go back to 2019, their property values now are still so much higher than they were in 2019, even without COVID. So, sellers who are serious about selling have to come to terms with the fact that pandemic pricing is done. People aren’t paying that anymore.”
Viehman said she has seen many sellers leaving the valley entirely.
“This was their retirement plan,” she said. “They lived here for 30-plus years, and now they’re cashing out. They’re gong to live closer to wherever their kids or grandkids are, so they’re trying to get the most they can, while still holing on and trying to cover the cost of these high property taxes now.”
Standoff Could Last A While
How long the seller standoff lasts really depends on individual buyers and their immediate priorities.
“It’s not like they’re moving because they have a job somewhere else,” Viehman said. “Or they’re buying a different home here because their lifestyle has changed. They can hold onto these properties.”
Viehman just had that kind of conversation with one of her sellers Monday.
“They’re going to wait another month before they think about lowering their price,” she said. “They were like, ‘What would you do?’ And I was like, ‘Well, I mean it’s for retirement. I’d probably give it another 30 days and see how you feel.’ There’s no urgency.’”
Better signals on the price direction in Jackson are likely once the presidential election is in the rearview mirror, Viehman suggested.
But those who want a position in Jackson Hole probably shouldn’t wait too long for a signal from this market, she added.
“We still have a 50-year low for our inventory,” she said. “Supply and demand are still going to keep pushing things here. They’re just not pushing them at the pandemic pricing that we once saw. With no new development, and no significant new development on the horizon, things are not going to change here.”
When people suggest to her that the Jackson market surely can’t get much higher than it is now, Viehman understands where they’re coming from.
“But just look at Aspen, their prices,” she adds. “We’re not even close to them yet. That can happen here, and it is happening.”
To what extent remains to be seen, but Viehman said she doesn’t think anyone should expect any big market correction to come of the current rise in inventory.
“We’re going to have some sellers get realistic about what they’re going to sell for,” she said. “And I feel like that will shake a few loose in different neighborhoods. But again, it’s still way higher than what it was just five years ago in 2019. This is not some big market correction going on.”
Renée Jean can be reached at renee@cowboystatedaily.com.
