Real estate prices are still riding the up escalator in Jackson and Teton County, Wyoming, and there’s no sign they’ve reached the top floor despite exceeding $7 million for the average single-family home.
Last year’s lull to close out 2023 had some buyers hoping they could wait out the Jackson market and score cheaper home prices in 2024. But that’s not what the numbers for the first-quarter of 2024 show.
Sales in Jackson were up 10% year over year, according to the latest Jackson Hole quarterly report put out by the Viehman Group. Dollar volumes were up 62%. Average sales prices were up 47% overall, hitting new records in several categories, driven in part by a 55% increase in the number of luxury sales, those above $5 million.
Sales in the $1 million to $3 million range are still the majority of transactions — but just barely at 52%.
Most of the sales activity was in the Westbank area at 31%, while the town of Jackson was a close second at 27%.
Overall inventory is up 14% year over year at 150 listings, according to the report. But that is still the third lowest inventory recorded in the market, suggesting that demand for a spot in Jackson Hole continues to dramatically outpace supply.
David Viehman, in his podcast about the report, recalled moving to the area in 1992, and how different things were then.
“At that time, there were approximately 1,300 active listings, or about 11% of the overall number of properties in the valley,” he said.
That’s what more “normal” markets typically see, Viehman said.
“But today (in Jackson), we have 1.2% of our properties on the market,” he said. “We have almost 13,000 deeds, but we only have 150 listings.”
More Market Constriction Ahead
Normally, high interest rates have a dampening effect on real estate markets. But that hasn’t been the case in Jackson Hole.
Part of the reason could be the changing model for economic boom towns and counties right now.
Eight of the 10 largest wealth-attracting counties in the nation are being driven by outdoor amenities, and, on that trend, Teton County is leading the pack.
Viehman said he believes that Jackson Hole is going to remain a seller’s market for the foreseeable future, in spite of high interest rates, which were averaging 7.70% nationwide for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on Monday, according to Forbes.
The data in Viehman Group’s report indicates further market constriction is ahead.
Overall properties under contract and their dollar volume — sales waiting in the wings — were down 22% and 21% respectively in Jackson Hole for the first quarter.
That is a direct reflection of the lack of inventory, Viehman told Cowboy State Daily in an email.
“In 2023, there were 45 properties under contract at the end of Q1 versus 35 this year,” he said.
It’s an early indicator that constriction in the market is getting worse, not better.
List prices for properties under contract reflect that continued market constriction, Viehman added. They rose 1% to $4.62 million, a new record for the category.
Single-family homes, condos and townhouses are 82% of the properties under contract, while 11% are vacant residential lots.
Single-family vacant lots remain in short supply as well, and getting shorter. Vacant single-family lots are also at their third lowest in history.
Lack Of Single-Family Homes
The number of single-family home sales dropped 21% year over year for the first quarter of 2024. That drop reflects lack of inventory rather than demand, the Viehman Group reported.
In fact, the average and median sale prices hit new records, at $7.02 million and $3.5 million respectively for the quarter, reflecting the dwindling supply.
The least expensive home listed on the Jackson market as of April 1 is a 1977 home with two bedrooms and one bath on 0.96 acres in Buffalo Valley. Its list price is $1.365 million.
There were only three homes listed for less than $2 million as of April 1.
By contrast, the most expensive single-family home listing was $31.5 million for a 4.53-acre private estate north of Wilson on Lake Creek. That home is 9,600 square feet with four bedrooms and seven baths.
In all, Jackson Hole has 6,129 free-market single-family homes, but only 56 are on the market.
That’s down 5% year over year.
Single-family homes under contract are down another 11%, and the average list prices of these homes is at $6.75 million — a new record for the category.
The number of single-family sales over $10 million stayed the same year over year at four, but the dollar volume was up 19% to $98 million, which was 52% of the total home dollar volume.
Condos, Vacant Lots Little Help
Condo and townhome sales increased 47% in the first quarter and average and median sales prices dropped 35% and 38% respectively.
But, that might be of little consolation given where the prices for condos now stands. The least expensive three-bedroom condo/townhome on the market right now is $1.325 million — not much different than the aforementioned least expensive home listing at $1.365 million.
About half of the condo sales were in Jackson, which has the most condos at 1,748, followed by Westbank with 1,147. There are a total of 3,271 free-market condo/townhomes in Jackson Hole.
Just 49 of those are listed for sale, though — with 22 each in Jackson and Westbank.
That figure represents less than six months of available inventory.
Jackson Hole has 1,064 platted and vacant residential family lots under 35 acres, a majority of which are held by neighboring property owners to protect visual corridors and/or privacy.
Single-family vacant lot sales, however, still went up 71% with 12 sales in the first quarter of 2024. Listings are down 33% to four, none of which are available for less than $1 million.
That suggests more dwindling supply — and more records — ahead in an ever-tightening Jackson Hole market. Where it stops no one knows.
Renée Jean can be reached at renee@cowboystatedaily.com.
