In the second week of August, calf and yearling prices recovered due to some hot video sales in the region. This is good for livestock producers, as profits from raising cattle have declined some.
The Trump administration has been trying to find ways to lower beef prices at the retail level by bringing in more lean beef from South American countries and opening up the Mexican Border to imported cattle.
Reopening the border caused calf and yearling futures to drop quickly and brought on a lot of no-sells at some video sales.
While some beef cuts have dropped a little at grocery stores, strong demand and low cattle numbers are keeping beef prices high.
The CattleFax’s Long Term Outlook published in August says, “Cattle supplies have sketched out the cyclical low water mark, as confirmed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) inventory report. Cattle inventories will increase over the next several years, but the rebuilding of numbers is still expected to be slow by historic standards.”
“Many of the factors contributing to the extended liquidation phase remain at play – drought, producer demographics, urban sprawl, competing land uses, high costs and marked uncertainty – factors which will slow the pace of cattle expansion,” CattleFax continues.
Josh Maples with Mississippi State University Extension says, “Heifers held back for beef cow replacements were up three percent in the Cattle Inventory Report. Yes, it’s an increase and it’s the first increase since 2015, which is important, but 3.8 million head are still the second-lowest retention number, which we’ve got going back the last 50 years.”
Maples went on to say, “The 2026 calf crop number was also small. So, all of this tells us feeders – the number of calves going through fall sales – is still shrinking. We’re not at a point where we’re saying, ‘Hey, at least we’ve got the same number of calves as we did last year.’ That’s not true yet.”
With the ongoing drought, high costs of a smaller hay crop and high prices for feeders, most producers in our region are not going to expand their herds. They just can’t without more forage, and that begins with rain this fall and snowpack this winter.
These days consumers want more protein in their diet, and so far, they have been choosing beef. With the higher cost of beef, consumers are taking home more and more lean ground beef.
A study shows from 2022 to August 2026, lean ground beef rose 60.7 percent, while high value steaks such as ribeye, strip loin and tenderloin increased an average of 42.7 percent.
For the next couple of years turkey, chicken, lamb and pork are expected to increase in demand, with chicken being the most popular of the four.
Somehow, we have to get inflation and the national debt down. The cost of raising meat and the cost of all business is just too high. All inputs are too high.
Come Aug. 18, be sure to get out and vote.
Dennis Sun is the publisher of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup, a weekly agriculture newspaper available online and in print.
