The cancelled Keystone XL pipeline isn't entirely dead, says Matthew Lewis, founder of the Denver-based independent research firm Plainview Energy Analytics.
In fact, a piece of it could be stitched into a new 36-inch crude oil line that would help get more Canadian oil to refineries along the Gulf Coast — but first passing through Wyoming.
"Keystone XL — I know you've heard of it, but most people don't realize some of the pipeline up in Canada was already laid before they cancelled that project," Lewis said in an interview. "So this will tie in — appears to tie into some of those assets that were laid or partially laid.”
Keystone XL was a proposed extension of the Keystone pipeline system that would have carried crude oil from Alberta's tar sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the project was canceled in 2021 after the Biden administration revoked its cross-border permit.
The company that holds the rights to Keystone XL "appear to be reviving that project as a feeder system to this new Bridger pipeline," Lewis said.
"It's kind of a resurrection of the project in a bit of a different form," added Lewis. "The route is a little bit different. The Bridger project follows a different route. But you could say that the two are somewhat tied together for sure."
"The U.S. portion is now going to be the Bridger project, it appears," he said. "According to the regulatory filings, they are going to have it be smaller initially, but it has the potential to be just as big or bigger."
As for what the project does for Wyoming, Lewis said, “I don't think it solves any Wyoming problem per se. Wyoming's being used as a corridor to get the barrels to market."
He added, “These pipelines typically pay a fair amount of property taxes. This would be a large project, so there would be some benefits to the counties and the state in that form."
Oil Terminal Hub Near Guernsey
Called the Bridger Pipeline Expansion, the project would run 647 miles from the U.S.-Canada border in Phillips County, Montana, south through eastern Montana and into Wyoming, terminating at an existing crude oil terminal hub near Guernsey.
Bridger Pipeline — part of the True Companies in Casper — filed its full application with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality in late March, and on April 1 the Bureau of Land Management published a Notice of Intent in the Federal Register to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement, opening a 30-day public scoping period.
The line would initially carry 550,000 barrels per day but is designed to scale to as much as 1.13 million barrels per day, according to filings analyzed by Plainview Energy Analytics.
“I can only speak for our project, which is from the U.S.-Canadian border down to Guernsey,” said Bridger spokesman Bill Salvin. "We have filed paperwork with the state of Montana to build a 36-inch pipeline from the U.S.-Canadian border in Phillips County, Montana, down to Guernsey, Wyoming," he said, noting how about 70% of the route follows existing pipeline corridors.
The motivation is "to deliver Canadian crude oil to Guernsey, Wyoming," he said, where a major hub will hand the barrels off to other carriers.
Salvin pointed to a looming Canadian capacity squeeze as another underlying driver.
"The pipeline capacity that exists in Canada to move Canadian oil from the producers in Canada who get it out of the ground — their pipelines are projected to run out of space or be at capacity sometime around 2028, 2029," he said. "So in terms of any urgency, the constraint that is present is a pipeline capacity constraint."
The project is years away from breaking ground.
"There's a lot of things that need to happen between now and the start of construction, and this is a multi-year process to get a pipeline built in the way that we've proposed," Salvin said. "There are permits that need to be obtained from the federal government, from the state of Montana, and from the various counties that the pipeline will run through in Montana and Wyoming."
Salvin added, "The company that is proposing this project, Bridger Pipeline, is a Wyoming company born and bred."
New Pipeline
Lewis, whose firm tracks midstream supply and demand fundamentals through state and federal regulatory filings, broke the news of Bridger's plans on his Substack publication "A Plainview on Crude Oil" roughly a month and a half ago and followed up with a second analysis after Bridger's late-March filings.
Lewis wrote that detailed maps in the application show potential tie-ins at key Bakken receipt points — Four Mile Station north of Sidney, Montana, and Baker/Sandstone Station west of Baker — providing access to most of Bridger's North Dakota gathering network.
"This optionality positions the project for potential future expansion beyond 550,000 barrels per day and creates the possibility of a new competitive egress option for Bakken shippers," Lewis wrote.
The barrels' likely ultimate destination is Cushing, Oklahoma — the largest crude oil storage hub in the United States — and the Gulf Coast. In a follow-up email, Lewis clarified that any leg out of Guernsey toward Cushing "would be handled as a separate project and pipeline."
He also cautioned the Bridger Expansion is far from inevitable.
"Nothing is set in stone right now on this," Lewis said. "They still have to get shippers to sign up and commit to the project, and there are competing projects out there that might be the shippers might decide to sign up for instead of this one. It's still very much in the planning stage or proposed stage."
Industry and Feds
The state's oil and gas lobby is welcoming the filings.
"The Bridger Pipeline expansion through Wyoming represents an exciting opportunity for Wyoming's oil and natural gas industry," said Ryan McConnaughey, vice president and director of communications for the Petroleum Association of Wyoming, in an email. "Investments like these, along with continued growth in areas like the Powder River Basin, show Wyoming will continue to play an important role in the nation's energy markets."
In an April 1 letter notifying Rep. Harriet Hageman of the federal review, Newcastle BLM Field Manager Chad Krause wrote that the agency has received a right-of-way application and plan of development for "a 647-mile, 36-inch steel crude oil transmission pipeline and related facilities, including access roads, main line valves and pump stations."
According to the Krause letter, Bridger is requesting a right-of-way grant and temporary use permit to construct and operate the line on 58.6 miles of BLM land in Montana and Wyoming and 5.2 miles of U.S. Forest Service lands in Wyoming. In Wyoming, the route would cross state, BLM, Forest Service and privately owned lands in Crook, Weston, Niobrara, Goshen and Platte counties.
BLM published its Notice of Intent in the Federal Register on April 1, "initiating the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and a 30-day scoping period," the letter states. BLM Montana/Dakotas will serve as the lead federal agency, with Montana DEQ as joint lead under the Montana Environmental Policy Act and Major Facility Siting Act.
Three in-person scoping meetings and one virtual session are scheduled. The Wyoming meeting runs April 13 from 5 to 7 p.m. at the Newcastle Lodge & Convention Center, 22918 US Highway 85 in Newcastle. Montana sessions follow April 14 in Glasgow and April 15 in Miles City, with a virtual session April 16. Comments can also be submitted through BLM's ePlanning portal under NEPA number DOI-BLM-MT-C020-2026-0054-EIS.
"Public scoping comments are being requested to identify relevant issues concerning the project and alternatives to meeting the project's purpose and need," Krause wrote. "These scoping comments are most useful when they are specific, cite relevant issues and/or determine the extent of those issues."
David Madison can be reached at david@cowboystatedaily.com.
