They say nothing fails like success, because you do not learn anything from it. From fumbling school finance to creating scandals out of thin air, we have seen plenty of learning.
But here’s the one that will hit you directly in the wallet – and one you probably didn’t see coming.
How would you like it if your tax relief cost you more in insurance premiums than your discounted tax bill – or cost you your homeowners insurance, all together?
Here’s how it will work.
Did you know your property insurance rates are based, in part, on a grade your fire department receives on its capability to promptly and adequately respond to a fire.
An outfit called Verisk — formerly called ISO — runs the Public Protection Classification (PPC) program. Think of it as a report card for your local fire department. The better trained, staffed, and equipped your department, the lower your fire risk. The lower your risk. The lower the risk, the lower you PPC score. The lower the PPC score, the lower your insurance premiums.
The scale runs from 1 to 10.
A 1 means top-tier fire protection and the best insurance rates.
A 10 means you can’t get fire insurance at all.
And who gets hammered first when PPC scores are bad?
Typically business and industry are hurt the worst, because it is harder for them to recover.
But, homeowners see increased premiums too.
Sometimes, in wildland-urban interface areas, like little ranchettes, homeowners cannot get insurance at all.
In Wyoming tax dollars to your local fire department mean training, staffing and equipment. You know, those things the PPC considers when grading your insurance company.
What kind of taxes fund your local fire department?
Property taxes.
If you slash property taxes without replacing the revenue, cities, towns, counties and fire districts take the hit.
Lower funding means a less-capable fire department.
When fire protection weakens, PPC scores increase. When PPC scores increase, insurance premiums rise.
It’s math.
According to WildfireRisk.org, Wyoming faces 70% higher wildfire risk than most states. The burden falls hardest on people in rural communities and the wildland-urban interface — Lusk, Newcastle, Dubois, Jackson — not places like Casper and Cheyenne (unless you own one those little ranchettes in the county).
If your department can’t afford adequate protection, insurers adjust. Premiums go up. Or coverage disappears.
And where do those increased premium dollars go? Not into your local economy to fund government. They flow to multinational insurance corporations.
In some parts of Wyoming, homeowners are already struggling to get coverage.
This situation is not new to the country.
Look west to California. A regulatory mess and wildfire exposure made large areas uninsurable.
Carriers left. Premiums skyrocketed.
Many folks simply could not get insurance.
The political response? Create the California FAIR Plan — a taxpayer-backed insurance bureaucracy to cover what private companies wouldn’t.
So, residents many areas paid more in fire insurance premiums.
Those same people, as well as everyone else in the state, had to pay more in taxes to fund the state high-risk insurance company.
So, California taxpayers got hammered twice.
That’s what happens when policymakers don’t understand the downstream effects of their decisions.
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes people who know just enough to be dangerous — and not enough to realize it. . I wrote in detail about the principle in March of 2024.
Cut property taxes which results in a cut in fire service without understanding the consequence, and you may trade a tax bill for a larger insurance bill — one you can’t deduct, and can’t vote on.
Before cheering tax “relief,” ask your legislator some simple questions:
Will my fire insurance premiums increase?
If so, how much?
If your legislator does not know, tell the legislator they should.
Do not let them create an insurance crisis for no reason.
Because governing isn’t about short-term campaign lines.
Legislating is about taking time to understand the consequences. It’s about being methodical and assessing all the consequence of a particular course of action. It’s not about knee-jerk reactions that create catch campaign slogans.
It’s about taking care of the people of Wyoming. It’s about asking the hard questions when no one else will and being willing to accept the consequences of being methodical.
The Dunning-Kruger effect has a way of humbling the arrogant.
Unfortunately, when it shows up in public policy, we all pay the piper.
Tom Lubnau served in the Wyoming Legislature from 2004 to 2015 and is a former Speaker of the House. He can be reached at: YourInputAppreciated@gmail.com
