Wyoming's Thanksgiving Day forecast looks pretty mild, with partly sunny skies and daytime temperatures near 50. It's the weekend weather that meteorologists are worried about.
Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day said people will want to "keep their antennas up" for the weekend. It's not a question of "if," but "when" cold temperatures and snow cover Wyoming, and it could come when they aren't expecting anything.
"I don't want to state that Friday will be good for travel," he said. "Two things we're very confident about are the transition to the coldest temperatures of the season, and there will be snow associated with it. It's just a matter of timing and magnitude."
Pre-Cooling The Oven
The lead-up to Thanksgiving is looking colder, windier, and (depending on where you are in Wyoming) snowier.
Communities and mountain passes in northern Wyoming woke up to a blanket of snow Tuesday, signaling the arrival of the pre-Thanksgiving cold front that Day and others have been watching.
"This front is going to make a lot of wind, and make Tuesday and Wednesday quite a bit colder," Day said. "If there's any snow, it'll stay in the north."
Daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday range from the high 30s to low 40s, with wind gusts as high as 40 mph in some places. That could lead to the first freezing wind chills of the season.
Overall, that's good news for Thanksgiving Day. The cold front will have moved on by Wednesday night, making Thursday's weather "nothing to write home about," according to Day.
"There's nothing really big leading up to Thanksgiving Day," he said. "Other than a few snow showers in the mountains that morning, temperatures are probably going to be 40s and lower 50s. It's not that there won't be weather, but it's not going to be anything bad."
The Definites
The National Weather Service (NWS) is calling for a "potent winter storm" to arrive by the weekend. The exact timing of that storm is difficult to determine.
"I'm a little queasy about it too, because there's a 12 to 18-hour difference in timing," Day said. "Getting the coldest air this season is a foregone conclusion, but we've got to get a bit closer to know exactly how cold and much snow we're going to get."
The NWS Climate Prediction Center has been calling for above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures across Wyoming during the last weeks of November and the beginning of December. Daytime highs over the weekend range from the high 30s to the low 20s, with a noticeable drop between Saturday and Sunday.
When the winter storm arrives, Day said, it will be cold enough for potential snow accumulation.
"There will be measurable snow falling in a lot of places on Saturday and Sunday," he said.
Eye On Friday
The wild card in short-range forecasts is Friday. It could be a carefree day on the highways or catastrophically chaotic as snow starts falling.
"A lot of forecasts today show Friday being fine, but I think telling people that the weather will be good on Friday is too risky," he said. "It's painting with a broad brush. Timing is really hard with this big change in the pattern."
The 12-to 18-hour window for the storm's arrival will impact people's travel plans. There will definitely be winter weather conditions across Wyoming on Saturday and Sunday, but the snow could come earlier.
"I could see snow starting to fall across northern and central Wyoming as early as Friday," Day said. "It might wait until Friday night or Saturday, but I'd keep an eye on Friday."
Day always says the goal is to drive in good weather rather than attempting to outrun bad weather. Keeping to his mantra, he believes Wyomingites might want to curtail their holiday plans and hit the road earlier on Friday to avoid the "futility" of trying to stay ahead of a significant snowstorm.
"We are most confident about poor travel on Saturday and Sunday going into Monday," he said. "People need to be nimble and take the timing changes into account. It might be just fine along Interstate 80 on Friday, but not so nice on Interstate 90 on Friday."
Give Thanks For This Forecast
Here's a sampling of what the NWS is expecting for Wyoming's weather on Thanksgiving. The Friday forecast will be the one to watch, depending on when the incoming winter weather system arrives.
• Afton: Partly sunny with a slight chance of morning snow and a daytime high near 47, then mostly cloudy overnight with a low around 25. A 50% chance of snow shows on Friday.
• Buffalo: Partly sunny with a daytime high near 41, then mostly cloudy with a low around 27 overnight. A 40% chance of snow showers on Friday.
• Casper: Partly sunny with a daytime high near 49, then mostly cloudy with a low around 32 overnight. A 30% chance of rain and snow showers on Friday.
• Cheyenne: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 48 and an overnight low around 27.
• Cody: Partly sunny with a daytime high near 46, then mostly cloudy with a low around 29. A 30% chance of snow showers on Friday.
• Douglas: Partly sunny with a daytime high near 44, then mostly cloudy with a low around 23. A slight chance of rain and snow showers on Friday.
• Encampment: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 46, then mostly cloudy with a low around 29 overnight. A slight chance of snow showers on Friday.
• Evanston: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 50, then partly cloudy with a low around 24 overnight.
• Gillette: Mostly cloudy and windy with a daytime high near 39, then mostly cloudy with a low around 23 overnight. A chance of snow showers on Friday.
• Jackson: Partly sunny with a chance of morning snow showers and a daytime high near 46, then mostly cloudy with a low around 24 overnight. Snow showers are likely on Friday.
• Laramie: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 48, then partly cloudy with a low around 29 overnight.
• Lusk: Partly sunny with a daytime high near 39, then mostly cloudy with a low around 21 overnight. A slight chance of snow showers on Friday.
• Pinedale: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 42, then mostly cloudy with a low around 19 overnight. A 20% chance of snow showers on Friday.
• Rawlins: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 46, then mostly cloudy with a low around 29 overnight.
• Rock Springs: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 49, then partly cloudy with a low around 25 overnight.
• Saratoga: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 46, then mostly cloudy with a low around 26 overnight.
• Sheridan: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a daytime high near 42, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers and a low around 21. A 50% chance of rain and snow showers on Friday.
• Thermopolis: Mostly sunny with a daytime high near 46, then mostly cloudy with a low around 24 overnight. A 30% chance of rain and snow showers on Friday.
• Wamsutter: Mostly sunny with wind gusts as high as 21 mph and a daytime high near 46, then mostly cloudy with a low around 26 overnight. A 20% chance of snow showers on Friday.
Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.
