It’s been a mild autumn in Wyoming. There hasn’t been much snow below 9,000 feet, few if any strong wind events, and places haven’t even experienced a day with average temperatures below 20 degrees into late October.
Some might be inclined to say it’s been an unseasonably warm fall, but it hasn’t been. Most Wyoming meteorologists would say this is the closest to an average autumn that Wyoming’s experienced in recent years.
“Over the last two months, most of the state has been slightly above-average with temperatures, but it’s nothing remarkable,” said Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day. “We haven’t had a blast of cold weather or any record-breaking temperatures in October. It’s been pretty mild.”
Wyoming’s luck is going to run out eventually, and there are signs of a cold snap on the horizon but fall 2025 is notable for a mundane reason. For the first time in a while, it’s been an average October.
“We've had snow events and a little bit of a late freeze in many areas, but it still does not rank up there with the warmer, drier October as we've had in years past,” Day said. “I think the lack of cold is why there’s a perception that this has been an unseasonably warm fall.”
Slightly Above Average
Noah Myers, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Riverton, said that a significant portion of Wyoming has been experiencing above-average temperatures, but nothing abnormal for this time of year.
“I’d classify it as just slightly above normal for the month, but it’s nothing too crazy,” he said. “It has been a fairly mild fall that’s generally been warmer than average.”
Monitoring stations in Buffalo, Casper, Greybull, Lander, Rock Springs, and other locales in western and central Wyoming have all shown the same trend. According to Myers, October’s temperatures have been between one and two degrees warmer than average.
That said, it doesn’t mean the entire month has been warmer than average. There were several days with below-average temperatures, too.
“We're seeing days where the daily high never made it to the daily normal temperature,” he said. “At this time of year, we usually have cold systems coming through, but we’ve only had two or three decent, widespread systems across Wyoming this month.”
October is usually when Wyoming sees its first big blast of cold weather, sometimes accompanied by widespread snow and wind chills. That could still happen before the end of the month, but it isn’t looking likely.
“We had a very strong subtropical influence in the latter half of September into early October, which skewed temperatures a little bit and kept us from getting really cold,” Day said. “That was a little bit unusual, but we also haven’t had a big blast of severe cold come through.”
Overall, Wyoming has spent most of October enjoying average to slightly above-average temperatures. For Day, that’s notable but not exceptional.
“I would not put this fall in the exceptional category, temperature-wise,” Day said.
Where There Isn’t Smoke
October might have been slightly warmer than average so far, but it was also wetter than average. There hasn’t been much cold, but Day said there’s been an abundance of precipitation, particularly in western Wyoming.
“A large part of Wyoming has had a wet fall, and that's been pretty good,” Day said. “September and October tend to be drier periods, but if you look at the snow that's fallen in the northern and western mountains, we’re well ahead of where we were at this time last year.”
Myers confirmed that precipitation has been “a little bit above normal” across most of Wyoming. Winter weather conditions have caused temporary closures of the Beartooth Highway and several roads in Yellowstone National Park, but that snow has yet to penetrate the lower elevations of the state.
While many places have yet to have a daily average temperature below 20 degrees, Myers noted that most Wyoming locales have experienced their first freezes of the season. That’s a clear sign of a seasonal shift, regardless of the daily average temperature.
“We’ve seen cold temperatures everywhere they’re expected at this time of year,” he said. “Most of Wyoming has seen a hard freeze at this point, and both Big Piney and Yellowstone Lake have recorded temperatures below 20 degrees this month.”
Day drew a clear contrast between this fall and last by noting the lack of wildfires this season. There have been significant wildfires, such as the Red Canyon Fire near Thermopolis and the Dollar Lake Fire in the Bridger-Teton National Forest, but those started during the summer and are entirely contained at this point.
“If you're going to have an exceptionally warm, dry fall, you're probably going to have wildfires,” he said. “How many wildfires have started this fall? Zero.”
In late October 2024, the Elk Fire in the eastern Bighorns, sparked by lightning on Sept. 27, was only 70% contained and had burned over 95,000 acres. It would burn a total of 98,352 acres before it was extinguished by mountain snow and cooler temperatures in early November.
Winter Is Coming
Wyomingites have enjoyed the mild weather and slightly above-average temperatures in September and October, but our luck will inevitably change. There are already signs of a significant seasonal shift to the north.
“Conditions in the Pacific Ocean and Canada, and changing sea surface temperatures along the equator, are lining up with our long-range winter forecasts,” Day said. “The models that I trust the most have been very consistently showing that. After Nov. 10, it’s going to start feeling a lot more like winter than fall.”
Myers suggested the change could be felt even sooner. A cold spell is anticipated over the upcoming weekend, and while it will warm up a bit once it passes, it’s a clear sign of what’s coming.
“The cold front will sweep through on Saturday and Sunday, and that’ll make most of Wyoming colder over the weekend,” he said. “That'll last for a few days, and then we’ll warm up and dry out by the middle of next week. It’s been a mild fall, but winter is coming.”
Day believes most people have very short memories when it comes to Wyoming’s weather. This fall might have seemed unseasonably warm up to this point, but he says the only notable thing about this season has been its overall averageness.
“Our luck is going to eventually run out, and there are indications that that's going to happen in November,” he said. “However, what we’ve seen in October doesn’t rank up with the warmer, drier Octobers in years past. It’s not extreme enough to be an anomaly.”
Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.
