Last week, the coal friendly Trump Administration offered 162,000 tons of mineable coal for sale near the Spring Creek Mine in Montana for sale. The only bid for the coal was by Navajo Transitional Energy Company (NTEC) for $186,000.
The bid for the coal was less than a penny per recoverable ton of coal. The last successful sale for coal was $1.10 per ton, or a bid more than 100 times greater than the bid NTEC made.
Given the disappointingly low bid, the BLM canceled the sale.
The BLM also suspended a projected coal sale south of Wright, Wyoming for 3,508 acres of minable coal. The federal government had not offered coal reserves for sale for more than ten years.
What, if anything, can we learn from the low bid for the Montana coal?
According to a report in the Cowboy State Daily, Wyoming Mining Association Executive Director Travis Deti said the mining association was going to take a wait and see approach.
He pointed out no coal sale had occurred for many years, and perhaps inexperience in coal sales led to the disappointing result. Coal sales are robust.
Donna Birkholz, executive director of the Powder River Basin Resource Council (PRBRC), speculated perhaps that the low bid for the coal meant there is really no market for coal after all.
Wyoming Sierra Club Chapter Director Rob Joyce said in predictable fashion, “It’s time for Wyoming to come to terms that our coal is just not going to bring in what it used to. Our public lands are worth so much more as places to recreate and as habitat for our wildlife.”
Wyoming’s coal production is slightly ahead of last year. The first two quarters of 2025 reveal sales of over 100 million tons, or an annualized rate of 200 million tons, which is slightly higher than the 190 million tons produced in 2024, and nearly half the 397 million tons produced in 2014.
Was NTEC being too greedy in its bid? A penny per ton on coal that sells on the spot market for $14.00 might be an insult.
Or is the PRBRC right that the economics and future of coal do not play out? Is the future of steam coal so bleak that one of Wyoming’s major coal companies bid what amounts to a nuisance value for the mineable coal?
Perhaps it is too early to draw any conclusions. What we do know is things now are different than they were, and Wyoming policy makers need to be asking hard questions about this sale and the future of Wyoming energy.
According to the BP Energy Outlook (That tells us what we need to hear, not what we want to hear), by 2050, coal consumption worldwide will account for around 15% of the primary energy in the current trajectory, down from almost 30% in 2023.
China, the world’s largest coal consumer will account for 85% in the reduction coal consumption.
Fossil fuel shares in the United States energy mix fall from almost 90% in 2023, to between 40%-70% by 2050. Wind and solar will become the largest contributors to power generation growing to 60% in the current trajectory.
Power demand is predicted to grow by 2% per year, mostly driven by data centers, but coal’s role in the primary energy mix drops from 9% to 1% in all BP scenarios.
Nuclear capacity rises to 100 GW by 2050, in the current trajectory, driven by lifetime extensions of the existing fleet. Nuclear energy will be looking for a state to develop its industry.
I’ve been following the BP projections for about 20 years, and with minor corrections, the predictions are usually spot-on, and not driven by political desires.
I am concerned the legislature is intent on living in the past and not paying attention to the predicted worldwide trends.
Coal bid bonus money constructed billions of dollars of schools around the state of Wyoming. When the bid bonuses slowed down, so did school facility construction. One of Wyoming’s good revenue sources vanished.
Now, we have a legislature intent on limiting state revenue sources and spending savings.
In the short-term, it is a great political strategy, because the politician who spends the savings does not have to bear the consequences of the long-term choices.
But the day will come when the state has no income, no savings, and bills to pay.
Some future elected official will have to bear the consequences of the current batch of politicians’ quest for power.
We need responsible legislators, who do not rely on wishful thinking, to make long-term policy decisions.
It’s time to take off the aluminum foil hats filled with wishful thinking, and make some real decisions based on responsible predictions.
Tom Lubnau served in the Wyoming Legislature from 2004 - 2015 and is a former Speaker of the House. He can be reached at: YourInputAppreciated@gmail.com
