Oil from shale extracted from Wyoming’s Powder River Basin and Mowry formations still breaks even around $60 a barrel, according to new insights from an energy market research firm.
For Wyoming residents unfamiliar with the intricate world of energy industry analysis, this figure taken from the latest Enverus Intelligence Research report late last week, represents more than just a spot price.
It's part of a constantly updating global data stream that energy analysts use to predict what's coming next for Wyoming's oil industry.
From research firms like Enverus to industry news sites like Hart Energy, a network of experts tracks drilling patterns, production data and market signals that extend around the world — all of which ultimately impact what happens in places like Campbell, Converse and Johnson counties.
In recent months, OPEC+ has increased its output, with another 411,000 barrels per day added in July 2025, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.
Analysts characterize these moves as part of a strategy to reclaim market share and pressure higher-cost producers, particularly U.S. shale operations — which includes Wyoming.
So what does it all mean for Wyoming's oil producers?
Here's a breakdown of what the outside industry experts are saying about oil operations in Wyoming, and what the rest of the year might look like.
The Powder
Chris Mathews, senior editor at the oil industry news site Hart Energy, sees reason for optimism despite current market pressures.
"It's nothing revolutionary, per se," Mathews told Cowboy State Daily. "As an analyst I spoke to put it, 'they're not testing anything crazy.' The Powder River Basin has several 'semiconventional' sandstone benches between the Niobrara and Mowry shale benches. And there's a lot of oil and gas yet to be extracted from those semiconventional sources."
Semiconventional sources of oil and gas refer to petroleum accumulations that do not fit neatly into the classic definitions of either conventional or unconventional resources. Hence the “semi.”
Mathews notes that these zones come with challenges.
"The semiconventional zones aren't as repeatable and scalable as the Niobrara and Mowry shales, which are more widespread across the basin and have tighter rock formations, which helps reduce interference between wells," he explained. "In the semiconventional zones, you can have a lot of parent-child well interference — where one well looks amazing and the one drilled next to it performs much worse."
The bottom line, according to Mathews: "The PRB's stacked semiconventional zones are quite promising. But they come and go across the basin and lack the scale and repeatability of other major basins, like the Permian, Bakken and Denver Julesburg (D-J).”
Recent reporting by Mathews highlighted promising developments, including Occidental Petroleum's "exceptional" results from the Powder River's Turner Sands.
"IP rates from Occidental's wells completed in the Turner bench of the Powder River Basin last year averaged 1,573 barrels of oil equivalent per day," his reporting noted. "Oxy also plans to test the Mowry, Parkman and Teapot zones in the Powder."
An "IP rate" stands for "Initial Production rate." It measures how much oil and gas a new well produces per day right after it starts operating, usually within the first month. It's a key number used to judge how successful a new well is likely to be.
Industry analysts are paying attention to this potential.
"The Powder's deep stacked pay potential is still relatively untapped, and major oil producers, including Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy, are looking to the emerging horizontal play for future output growth," Mathews reported.
Global Pressures
While Wyoming sits on significant untapped resources, global market dynamics are creating headwinds for local producers.
Oil industry analyst Osama Rizvi told Cowboy State Daily the U.S. oil industry may be "nearing a tipping point" due to a combination of oversupply and price pressures.
"Global oversupply is expected to persist into 2026, with IEA forecasts showing excess production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, putting downward pressure on oil prices," Rizvi wrote in a recent analysis for oilprice.com.
His research shows that "a lower-for-longer price scenario is increasingly likely, especially if WTI remains range-bound, potentially leading to a delayed but significant slowdown in U.S. oil completions."
WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate and refers to a specific grade of crude oil that serves as one of the main global benchmarks for oil pricing.
For Wyoming specifically, Rizvi told Cowboy State Daily that activity has remained relatively stable despite broader industry concerns.
"Based on Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count data, activity in both the D-J and Powder River Basins has remained relatively stable over the past 12 months,” wrote Rizvi in an email.
Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count is a proprietary metric that tracks the number of active pressure pumper spreads — sets of equipment and crews — performing hydraulic fracturing operations in the U.S.
“While there are week-to-week movements, we do not see a clear downward trend in either basin,” added Rizvi. “These levels suggest operators remain engaged in both regions, particularly where existing infrastructure supports steady completions."
Looking ahead, Rizvi projected this for the industry overall: "If WTI remains range-bound between the $55 to $65 range through the second half of 2025, actual job completions will be adversely impacted."
Translation: If the price per barrel of oil doesn’t go up, it could cost jobs in Wyoming.
In his reporting, Rizvi concludes with, "While we might not be at the tipping point right now, we are also not far away from it.”
Market Uncertainty
The broader U.S. drilling industry is responding to price pressures with reduced activity.
According to a recent report from industry news site Hart Energy, "The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell yet again this week, according to new data that (energy technology company) Baker Hughes published on Friday, following a 10-rig decrease last week, and a 6-rig decrease the week before that."
And in Wyoming?
The ycharts.com Wyoming Rig Count shows moderate growth over the past several months, rising from around 17-18 rigs in late 2024 to the current level of 21. This represents a gradual expansion in drilling activity.
David Madison can be reached at david@cowboystatedaily.com.
