May showers are likely to bring June flowers to southeast Wyoming, but an ongoing drought deficit may or may not be alleviated before the wet season ends.
May was a good month for precipitation in southeast Wyoming. Several inches of moisture were reported, with some locations receiving above–average amounts for the month.
Nevertheless, it wasn’t enough to break the ongoing drought. June’s looking cooler and wetter, but ranchers and residents of Albany, Goshen, Laramie, Platte and Niobrara Counties might want to come to terms with a dry summer of drought.
“To use an overused analogy, drought is like eating an elephant,” said Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day. “You’ve got to do it one bite at a time.”
Good Inches, Good Timing
March and April weren’t good months for moisture in southeast Wyoming. This exacerbated the drought conditions already present, with Albany, Goshen, Laramie, Platte, and Niobrara Counties all experiencing Severe or Extreme Drought.
May was better across all five counties.
“Albany, Goshen, Laramie, Platte, and Niobrara Counties got between two and four inches of precipitation this month,” Day said. “The average for May is 2.5 inches. Some areas may have gotten a little less, and some may have gotten more, but 2-4 inches sums it up.”
Steve Rubin with the National Weather Service Office in Cheyenne said Cheyenne received 1.66 inches of precipitation in May.
“It's been cooler and wetter than normal in Cheyenne,” he said. “We're still running a little below normal for May, which is usually the wettest month of the year.”
Still, Rubin described the current circumstances as “dire.”
“May was pretty good, and things are definitely looking better than they did in March and April, but we need to get some moisture down here.”
Fourth Quarter Hail Mary
Day described the drought in southeast Wyoming as “significant,” but said the timing of May’s moisture couldn’t have been much better.
“The timing of the rain was excellent,” he said. “To use a sports analogy, we were getting to the end of the fourth quarter. Our team needed to pick it up, and that finally happened.”
Spring weather wasn’t equitable across Wyoming. While western and northern Wyoming received plenty of moisture from rain and snow, southeast Wyoming largely went without.
Day said May’s moisture was “a big shot in the arm” going into June, which is historically another wet month for most of Wyoming but also the end of the wet season. The moisture received will facilitate any moisture yet to come.
“If the ground is too dry, it gets hard for afternoon thunderstorms to produce much rain,” he said. “If you can get soil moisture levels up in May and June, it reduces the heat and increases the chances of rain in July and August. You always want that spring moisture.”
Drought Dogma
Drought is detrimental to every afflicted acre, but Wyoming’s ranchers tend to take the hardest hits. During droughts, ranchers are often forced to make difficult decisions, even if it means stepping away from the business altogether.
State Senator and lifelong rancher Ogden Driskill has had “one of the nicest springs” in recent years at his ranch in Crook County, but knows his peers in southeast Wyoming are struggling.
“The rains have been timely, and we're in the middle of a good year so far, but we’re still 12 inches behind (the average),” he said. “But I’ve spoken to several ranchers who haven’t gotten anywhere near their normal rainfall. The first good rain they got was the day before yesterday.”
During a drought, ranchers can choose to cut their losses or cut their herds loose to salvage what they can. Ranchers anticipate these dry years, but that doesn’t make them easier.
“There’s been a series of dry years,” he said, “and when we’re in drought, it seems like we're selling on a bad market. Selling means you'll have half the revenue going forward, and it gets very hard to replace them without crimping yourself even more.”
Driskill said he’s sold over half the cattle on his ranch over the last 30 years, mainly due to drought. Experienced ranchers can weather the first year of drought with proper planning, like keeping a year’s worth of hay on the ground to keep their operations going without the added expense. But the longer the drought, the harder it gets to keep going.
The Silver Living
Fortunately, there’s a silver lining in 2025, and Driskill knows many ranchers are making the most of it.
“The cattle markets are at their highest they've ever been in history,” he said. “This time, if the guys want to sell things, at least the price is good to get out. It makes it a lot easier to make hard decisions in the drought when you can make good money off what you're selling.”
Some ranchers might sell their cattle and call it quits, while others will pad their not-so-rainy day accounts for future years of drought. Driskill said “the good ones” will see any drought through.
“It's part of their business model,” he said. “Most of the really good old-time ranches can operate through droughts. If you’re prepared, you can easily get through the first year of drought.”
Despite the drought, Driskill knows many ranchers keep their heads and head count high. The ground might be dry, but the market is flooding with potential profits.
“It's a really, really fun time to be in the cattle business right now,” he said.
Joyful June?
May’s moisture was beneficial, but still left June with a lot of dry ground to cover. Can it be done?
Possibly. Both Day and Rubin said the prognosis for June precipitation is good, but it might not be enough to completely break southeast Wyoming’s drought.
“Next week looks like another wet pattern, especially on Monday and Tuesday, but we have a good chance for some wetting rains throughout the week,” Rubin said. “It might not be significant moisture, but we should be able to start catching up with the drought.”
Day said long-range weather models suggest the first half of June will also be cooler than average, which could facilitate more rain when the storms arrive. Cooler land facilitates more rain and better moisture retention, a critical factor in defeating drought.
“Trends started to change in May,” he said. “The southeast corner was missing all of these good rain events., Finally, it was their turn in May. What I’ve seen many times before is that after a significant dry cycle, a couple of significant rain events can help turn the corner. So, fingers crossed, we might follow up May with a good month of moisture in June.”
Hope for the best, brace for the worst. Rubin cautioned that while any moisture in June will put a sizeable dent in the drought deficit, it will likely lessen but not break the drought.
“June is one of our wetter months as well, so hopefully we'll start getting into more of a wet pattern,” he said. “But anticipating a drier, drought-like summer would be a good prediction for southeast Wyoming.
Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.
