A downward ripple in the price of oil for Wyoming producers caused by a response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs may be leveling out, the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information reports.
Dylan Bainer, with the state Economic Analysis Division, released the monthly “Wyoming Insight” report Monday, which shows oil prices dropping to the lowest level since 2021.
"It's what most economists, including us, expected,” said Bainer. “In terms of the global market uncertainty and the global reactions to the Trump tariffs that have been taking over the headlines the past few weeks, the oil price dropped as a direct reaction to that.
“Wyoming Insight” is released around the second week of each month and tracks the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) monthly average price for crude oil, which is an industry benchmark.
The WTI was $63.54 per barrel in April, which the report says is “6.9% less than a month ago and 25.6% less than April 2024.”
With talk of tariffs, “People are worried that activity would slow down,” Bainer told Cowboy State Daily on Tuesday. “So, the demand for oil therefore will go down. I just pulled up April 2021. There were only six oil rigs operating.”
The current WTI prices compare to the lows of 2021, which was “right after the meat of the pandemic,” he said. "The price for Wyoming producers is typically about $5 below WTI.”
Bainer speculated that Wyoming’s size and isolation might be creating the price difference.
“I’m not 100% sure on this,” he said. “I’m speaking from my intuition, but those transportation costs could be a reason. That kind of digs into the price that Wyoming producers get.”
In Operation
Last month, the average number of active oil rigs in Wyoming was 12. In March, oil and gas industry jobs sat around 8,700, 200 fewer than at the same time a year ago, according to “Wyoming Insight.”
Reflecting on high points for Wyoming’s oil industry, “It looks like toward the end of 2014, we had at one point 40 oil rigs,” said Bainer.
In October that year, the WTI price was $84.40, around $20 more per barrel than the current monthly average.
Recent analysis from energy services firm Baker Hughes found the rig count nationwide fell 4% below this time last year, which could be a response to the suppressed price of oil.
But that’s not entirely clear, Ryan McConnaughey told Cowboy State Daily.
“A weekly spot price is a tough indicator for rig activity given the long timeframe of a well’s productive life,” said the VP and director of communications for the Petroleum Association of Wyoming.
“Other factors that go into increased activity include strong demand outlook, favorable regulatory frameworks, and positive global economic factors,” said McConnaughey. “Companies have various internal factors that determine their breakeven price, but in general WTI needs to be around $65-$70 a barrel to be profitable in Wyoming.”
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, which does economic analysis for Wyoming and other states, recently reported industry survey results that found oil prices need to be on average $65 per barrel for drilling to be profitable, and $85 per barrel for a substantial increase in drilling to happen.
Modest Bounce
On Tuesday, crude oil futures jumped by more than $1 a barrel, apparently boosted by a temporary cut in U.S.-China tariffs and a better-than-expected inflation report, as reported by Reuters.
“Oil prices fell to a four-year low as investors worried the U.S.-China trade war could depress economic growth and oil demand," added Reuters. "Also, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to boost oil output by more than previously expected.”
Chiming in with its monthly analysis is the Center for Energy Regulation and Policy Analysis at the University of Wyoming.
In its May 2025 monthly “Crew Report,” the Center reported, “Wyoming crude oil production totaled 9,018 thousand barrels in January 2025, ranking the state fourth in this regional comparison behind Colorado (14,837 thousand barrels), North Dakota (36,319 thousand barrels), and New Mexico (63,874 thousand barrels).
Wyoming production increased 4.2% between January 2024 and January 2025, up 361 thousand barrels, according to the May “Crew Report.”
David Madison can be reached at david@cowboystatedaily.com.
