The first 100 days of Donald J. Trump’s second term in office will end on April 30.
Since FDR, 100 days has been considered a benchmark for evaluating the early success of a presidential term.
I should begin by confessing that I have been and am, a Trump supporter.
That said, I have also been independently minded when it comes to Trump’s performance as President, and have been critical of him in the columns I have written when I thought he was wrong and deserved criticism.
It is in that spirit – an Independently minded supporter – that I have accepted an invitation to opine on the performance of Trump and his administration over the first 100 days of the second term.
I’ll be fair but objective in my assessment. I’m no “insider” and my view on the Trump administration of necessity is from 30,000 feet, or at least from the 6,200-foot elevation of the place I call home.
One cannot assess the Trump administration without highlighting a few things about Donald Trump. More than any other president in my lifetime, Trump is hands-on and the administration is in large part a reflection of his persona.
First Term
Trump comes to government from the private sector where he was a successful business-man and real estate developer. You might say he “negotiated for a living."
Like many in the business world, he is transactional, meaning he wants something in return for giving something. This is unlikely to change in his second term.
Trump started his political career in 2017 at the top, as President of the United States. Trump’s first term was marred by some mistakes, particularly in personnel recruitment and selection.
There is an old adage that happens to be true: “personnel is policy”. Having the wrong personnel in some of the cabinet and Whitehouse positions during the first term begot other errors, which in turn led to some chaotic situations.
Seemingly Trump learned from that experience and has appointed loyalists. Some are inexperienced but so far in this second term, the personnel situation is, for the moment, stable.
On one level, Trump was an excellent, if not precise, communicator during the first term and this characteristic continues.
However, his syntax and use of superlative adjectives sometimes makes it difficult to decipher exactly what he means or is intending to convey. Moreover, his use of language provides his adversaries with opportunities for criticism which they seldom seem able to pass up.
Trump’s first term was impeded by organized resistance from his political enemies, some of whom became zealots. On more than one occasion the resistance adopted the philosophy that the goal of “getting Trump” justified any means necessary.
Criminality was not excluded. Innocent people in the Trump orbit were targeted and paid a heavy price.
Trump was impeached twice, giving new meaning to the old saw, “trumped up charges."
Each impeachment took time, resources and energy away from governance, but perhaps that was the purpose.
The 2024 Campaign
It appears certain that Trump’s close brush with death from a would-be assassin’s bullet in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024 had a profound effect on his world-view and persona.
I believe he became quieter, less bombastic and more reflective. He has publicly professed a belief that God saved his life and exhibited spirituality when talking about the two assassination attempts.
During the campaign, Trump made many promises regarding domestic and foreign policies and, governmental reform.
One of the hottest issues during the campaign was illegal immigration. Trump promised to close the border and deport the illegal immigrants, starting with those who had a criminal record.
In the area of energy, Trump promised a reversal of the “green new deal” in favor of “drill baby drill," making the U.S. dominant in the field of energy again.
Trump promised tax relief in three areas, tips, overtime and seniors’ social security. He also promised to make his first term tax reforms, scheduled to terminate at the end of this year, permanent.
On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to correct our trade imbalances and to bring back industries to the U.S. using tariffs to accomplish these goals. He stated that the U.S. had been, “ripped off” by our trading partners for years
In the area of governmental reform, he promised to terminate the Department of Education, to end costly regulations across the government, and to put an end to fraud, waste and abuse. He created DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to investigate, and recommend changes in departments and agencies of government.
In foreign policy, he summarized his approach as, “putting America first”. He promised to end the Ukraine war and to back Israel in its war against Hamas and Hezbollah and by extension, Iran.
He promised to end wasteful foreign aid and to reform NATO so that the European nations were paying more of the cost of their defense.
2024 Election
On November 5, 2024, the American people delivered a mandate to Trump and the Republican Party. Trump won the electoral college 312 to Harris’ 226 and won the popular vote by 2,284,338 votes.
The Republicans replaced the Democrats as the majority party in the Senate and retained a slim majority in the House.
The margin of Trump’s mandate was not overwhelming but it was substantial, especially considering the Republican victories in the House and Senate.
Are the Promises Being Kept?
Given the number of promises made to the American people during the Presidential Campaign, one would expect a busy first 100 days. Trump exceeded expectations, but there is a lot of unfinished business.
If one were grading the accomplishments, there would be a lot of “incompletes."
However, I can’t think of a promise that has not been addressed.
Sadly, almost every action has been resisted by multiple left-wing NGOs aligned with the Democrat Party. The resistance has been public and vocal and, in many instances, the subject of forum shopped litigation.
Trump’s most visible success has been in the field of immigration. Illegal immigration coming across our Southern Border has dropped to almost nothing, belying the Biden Administration’s falsehood, repeated many times during his four years in office, that he could do nothing to stem the flow of illegals without Congress passing legislation.
Twenty million (more or less) immigrants later, Trump’s successful control of the Border proves Biden’s excuses were mendacious.
While control of the Border has been achieved, deportation has been slowed by litigation initiated by the resistance and facilitated by a few federal district court judges.
Although half the immigration problem created by Biden, the deportation half is largely now in the hands of the federal judiciary.
Turning to the economy, tax reform and relief are working their way through Congress in a “Reconciliation Bill”. According to reports, prospect for passage is good.
With respect to energy, prices for transportation fuels have dropped significantly since Trump took office. A number of executive orders have been issued opening the Gulf of America and some Alaskan lands for drilling.
The EPA has announced several initiatives designed to help the energy industry. “Drill baby drill” is going to require exploration and exploration is dependent on lease sales and lease sales require preparation time. It is underway.
Foreign Policy of the United States is a continual but ever-changing. Trump has reminded NATO members of their obligation to increase defense spending instead of relying on the U.S.
Although there has been controversy about Trump’s statements, several NATO members have announced increases in defense spending.
Both Russia and Ukraine have been engaged by Trump (not without controversy) concerning a peace process. This is going to be a hard nut to crack, but the effort is underway and we will have to see whether the waring parties are ready to talk peace.
Israel’s Prime Minister has already been to Washington to meet with Trump and true to his word, Trump has let it be known that Israel and the U.S. are simpatico.
When shipping in the Red Sea was threatened, Trump ordered counter-measures that are still underway..
Trump has taken up the matter of development of nuclear weapons by Iran. A proposal is on the table. The negotiations will either be successful or Iran’s nuclear enrichment program will be taken out by Israel or the U.S. or both.
Trouble Ahead?
During the 2024 campaign, the Border and the economy vied for top billing as the most important issue facing the U.S. Trump has the Border under control, although deportation is unresolved and in litigation.
How and at what cost do you deport 20 million illegals? If you are only focused on illegals with criminal histories and gang membership, how do you deport 2 – 3 million (number estimated by Trump)?
Is each criminal alien entitled to a due process hearing? Our immigration courts currently have a backlog of 520,000 cases with an average wait time for a hearing of 675 days. You do the math.
Are these 2 - 3 million to be housed at taxpayer expense while awaiting their hearing?
Perhaps this was all taken into account when the Biden administration decided to open the Border. It is a problem – not of Trump’s making - but his administration will be expected to solve it.
As worrisome as the deportation issues are, they don’t carry nearly the risk compared to the administration’s economic and trade proposals. Those efforts could have an immediate political effect on the administration, undermining Trump’s standing in the polls and thus his political leverage.
The effect could be seismic: loss of the majority in the House of Representatives and thus, for all intents and purposes, loss of the ability to pass any administration -backed legislation. It would be a return to the experience of Trump’s first term, complete, I’m certain, with impeachment(s).
At the very least, failure of Trump’s economic and trade policies would be the end of his political power and thus the end of his ability to effectively guide the Nation during his second term in office.
At the time of this writing, the economic outlook is mixed. Most economists agree that satisfactory resolution of trade and tariff issues would improve the outlook for economic growth. The latest reading on inflation was encouraging but significant tariffs would increase the cost of living and push the economy toward higher inflation.
The stock market has swooned under uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade. Thus, much is riding on the tariff and trade negotiations now underway.
They not only must be completed with satisfactory outcomes for the U.S., they must be completed soon – the sooner the better. If we go into the summer with current economic issues still unresolved, it will have adverse consequences for the midterms in 2026 and thus Trump’s presidency.
If Trump is able to continue to guide the Country toward non- inflationary economic growth and the trade and tariff negotiations are satisfactorily concluded, Trump’s popularity will rise instead of fall and his final two years in office should be productive; a period of prosperity for the American people.
Ray Hunkins can be reached at: Ray.Hunkins@RayHunkins.com
