With supply and demand ruling today’s cost of beef, both those in the beef industry and consumers are scratching their heads wondering what the future holds.
The American beef industry is currently in unchartered waters. For the last couple of years, the price of beef has steadily rose, but so has input prices.
Today, both are at record prices and, with the threat of tariffs and volatility of the stock market, along with smaller issues such as Mexico sending cattle into the U.S., it makes it hard to predict beef prices.
The beef industry is just like other industries, as it doesn’t like uncertainty.
Where all meats are a commodity, this means bad news can change the markets overnight. As we’ve learned in the past, it is usually a negative change, but with the demand for meats – especially beef – it can prove to be a positive.
According to Certified Angus Beef Supply Management and Analysis Director Paul Dykstra, around 591,000 head of federally-inspected cattle were processed earlier in April.
The cattle harvest was 18,000 head smaller than the week prior and 23,000 head smaller than a year ago.
Dykstra said, “With this said, the production volume trend is positive, with a two-week average of 600,000 head per week compared to the prior two weeks, averaging just 571,000 head.”
Two months ago, ranchers, feeders and processors were all talking about when ranchers would start retaining heifers to expand their herds.
This would increase the supply of beef in three years. While I hear there has been some retention, ranchers and feeders are still selling heifers to meatpackers for processing.
A positive for ranchers, feeders and consumers is American’s love of hamburger. Ground beef demand was record high in 2024 and is expected to be higher yet in 2025.
This demand is because of lower cost and the many ways to cook ground beef.
Consumers also realize the great taste, along with the healthy high-protein qualities of hamburger and the short amount of time it takes to prepare a meal, is just what they are looking for.
An update from CattleFax noted, “The U.S. ground beef supply comes from three sources – fatter trim from fed cattle, lean trim from slaughter cows and bulls, and the bulk of imported beef also tends to be lean trim.”
I think processors are trying to keep ground beef at low prices to appease consumers.
CattleFax also said, “On a per-capita basis, this translates to 31.7 pounds of U.S. ground beef consumption in 2024. Compared to total beef consumption of 59 pounds per capita, ground beef rose to a record share of 53.7 percent of consumption.”
“Ground beef demand has been record strong, composes a significant portion of beef supplies and is a lower-cost beef option for the consumer. Maintaining the quality and safety of the U.S. beef supply is critical for protecting a key component of beef consumption and demand,” CattleFax continued.
When consumers ask a rancher when they think the price of beef will come down and they answer, “I don’t know,” it is the most honest answer they can give you.
Dennis Sun is the publisher of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup, a weekly agriculture newspaper available in print and online.
