A recent report from Wyoming’s lead economist, Wenlin Liu with the Department of Administration and Information, offers a mixed bag of good and bad news for Wyomingites.
While tourism and employment numbers are strong, sales tax revenue is down and housing affordability sits at a 40-year low. In fact, Liu calls the housing market in Wyoming “overpriced,” and Zillow reports that low inventory prompts about 11% of homebuyers to pay more than list price to close deals.
Liu, who’s the chief economist for the Economic Analysis Division in Cheyenne, told Cowboy State Daily on Thursday that Wyoming’s labor market remained healthy in the fourth quarter of 2024, with job growth exceeding that of the previous two quarters.
“Total employment increased 1.2% — 3,300 jobs — compared to the previous year,” said Liu. “The state's unemployment rate was up slightly to 3.5%, which was still much lower than the U.S. rate of 4.1%.
“Although there was a moderate contraction in oil and gas drilling in Wyoming, the state's labor market continued to progress, albeit at a slower rate compared to the previous three years.”
Looking at the percentage change in Wyoming employment by industry from the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, construction jobs in Wyoming went up by 4.9%. But mining jobs dropped by 2.8% and information jobs saw a 4.3% decline.
“Wyoming’s total personal income increased 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023,” Liu said.
U.S. personal income increased 5% during the same period, as total earnings in the state grew 6.4% annually in the quarter, while dividends, interest and rent grew 2.3%.
“Earnings in nearly all sectors demonstrated expansions from a year ago, led by professional and business services (24.4%),” while the overall construction industry grew by 7.2% annually,” according to Liu’s report.
Home Prices Rise
Despite increased earnings, home affordability remains a problem because personal income is not keeping pace with rising home prices, according to Liu’s analysis.
Single-family home prices statewide increased 8.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, which is the fastest increase since the third quarter of 2022.
As of the end of February, Zillow listed the median home price in Wyoming at $411,667, with around 11% of buyers ultimately paying over the list price.
Meanwhile, the national average price appreciation decelerated to 4.5% between 2024 and 2024.
“Additionally, single-family building permits for new privately-owned residential construction in Wyoming were 38.6% higher than the previous year, while multi-family units advanced by 22%,” reported Liu, who declared the overall housing market to be “overpriced.”
“The principal reason for this is the tight inventory for sale, which has been increasing, but is still about 25% lower than the pre-COVID period,” wrote Liu. “Most existing homeowners are tied to extremely low interest rates, significantly reducing their motivation to sell their properties.”
What Liu is seeing is “the slowest existing-home sales since the 2008 financial crisis.”
He goes on to predict, “Overheated valuation will exert downward pressure on prices,” but because homeowners don’t want to give up their low-interest mortgages by selling, this creates a supply constraint and that could stabilize home prices.
Liu ends his housing analysis on an up note, stating, “Home affordability is expected to improve over time through gradual income increases, reduced interest rates, and flattening home prices.”
Sales Tax Down, Tourism Up
Total taxable sales in Wyoming decreased by 4% to $6.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year, and Liu attributed this weak performance to contractions in the mining industry and utilities.
Taxable retail sales expanded by 2.1% reversing the decline observed in the previous quarter, but Liu still described taxable sales in Wyoming as “weak.”
However, Liu saw strength in the tourism data. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Yellowstone National Park and Grand Teton National Park welcomed an increased number of visitors.
Yellowstone’s “recreational visitations” jumped by 12.3% compared to the previous year to 397,568. The visitor bump was smaller for Grand Teton, showing a 4.6% increase to 360,084 visits.
Still, lodging sales for the fourth quarter were 15.8% lower than a year ago in Teton County, while the state as a whole experienced a decrease of 6.9%. Liu attributed this dip to a downward trend in what hotels are able to charge per night.
So even while visitation to Wyoming’s two big national parks has gone up, lodging prices appear to have declined.
Digging into the lodging data from Teton County is important, because on an annual basis, lodging sales in Teton County account for more than half of the state’s total.
Ag Prices And Investment Income Up
“Farm earnings in Wyoming demonstrated a robust trend for most of 2024,” reported Liu. “In the fourth quarter of 2024, earnings were 7.3% higher than the previous quarter, and 22.3% higher than the prior year.”
Liu’s analysis cited a 2025 Cattle Survey conducted by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
It showed inventory of all cattle and calves in Wyoming totaled 1.22 million head, down 3%, or 40,000 head from the previous year.
Mineral severance taxes generated in the fourth quarter was 6.2% higher than the previous quarter, but was 10.5% lower than the previous year.
"Despite moderate improvements in recent quarters, mineral revenue remained among the lowest since the second quarter of 2021, attributing to the significant decline in oil and natural gas prices, as well as coal production,” wrote Liu in a summary of his findings. “Primarily due to the change in interest rates, the state's investment income distributed to the state general fund in the fourth quarter was 3.9% lower than the amount from the same quarter a year earlier.”
Tariff Talk Cooling?
When Liu initially published his fourth quarter analysis at the end of March, it wasn’t clear how the Trump Administration planned to proceed with reciprocal tariffs.
In the opening line of his report, Liu predicted, “The global economy is venturing into uncertain waters.”
On Thursday, he told Cowboy State Daily, the Administration’s decision to pause reciprocal tariffs was good news for Wyoming and the world.
Uncertainty persists, but if the Administration’s enthusiasm for tariffs cools, then Liu said the future state of the world economy might not be as precarious as he predicted in March.
“U.S. economic policy is creating instability due to a barrage of tariffs and threats of tariffs, leading to heightened trade tensions,” wrote Liu. “Markets are unsettled, and both business and consumer confidence are declining. The world economy is looking increasingly fragile.”
David Madison can be reached at david@cowboystatedaily.com.
