There’s a 300-foot asteroid on a collision course with the Earth. It could impact the planet in 400 years or 4,000 years – or, if we're really unfortunate, within the next decade.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (Cneos) is observing the trajectory of 2024 YR, an asteroid discovered on Dec. 27, 2024. Based on the data collected so far, the asteroid is on a trajectory that will eventually impact the planet – the question is when.
“Right now, we believe the asteroid has a 1 in 43 chance of impacting Earth in December 2032,” said Max Gilbraith, the planetarium coordinator for the University of Wyoming Physics and Astronomy Department. “That is a very unsure number because we've only just discovered this object, and that number will change dramatically in the next few months.”
The Known
According to Gilbraith, Asteroid 2024 YR is between 40 and 100 meters long. It appears to be a rocky asteroid rather than a metal asteroid or the “dirty snowball” of a comet.
“Based on the initial spectrography, the asteroid’s not carboniferous or comet-like with a bunch of volatiles,” he said. “But it does seem to be a compact object. It's not a rubble pile in space, so it's not something that would break up in the atmosphere were to strike Earth.”
That places 2024 YR in the same size range as the Tunguska impactor, an asteroidthat exploded over a remote area in Siberia in June 1908. This remains the most significant impact event in modern history, with a yield of a 40-megaton nuclear weapon.
The devastation caused by the Tunguska impactor’s explosion flattened 80 million trees across an 830-mile expanse. Since the impactor exploded in the atmosphere rather than impacting, no crater was left behind.
“If that asteroid had impacted a populated area, it would have been an apocalyptic event,” Gilbraith said. “Given how similar they are in size, 2024 YR could wipe out any major metropolitan area on Earth.”
The Unknown
Since 2024 YR was only discovered a few weeks ago, Gilbraith said a lot about the asteroid remains unknown. Astronomers worldwide are doing what they can to assess the risk it could present.
“I anticipate we will have a couple of occultation events in the next few months,” Gilbraith said. “Astronomers will travel to specific spots across the earth to catch this asteroid when it moves in front of the exact location of a known star. By setting up hundreds of observations, we will hopefully be able to detect this asteroid and better understand its size, density, and mass.”
Gilbraith said the asteroid’s orbit suggests an inevitable collision course with Earth. 2024 YR has an orbital period of under four years, and its perihelion—when it is closest to the sun—corresponds very closely to Earth’s.
If the Earth and Asteroid 2024 YR reach the same place at the same time, they'll likely run into each other. That's an eventuality astronomers are trying to anticipate and prepare for.
No Worries In Wyoming
There’s much more to discover about Asteroid 2024 YR and whether it will get close enough to impact Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. However, Gilbraith said the data collected so far suggests Wyomingites have nothing to worry about – at least, not directly.
“Given the uncertainty of any impact in 2032, we ironically know the earth's orientation when it could occur,” he said. “There's a line of latitude stretching from the coast of El Salvador to Bangladesh where this asteroid would impact if it did.”
Most of the Pacific Ocean lies between El Salvador and Bangladesh, and an ocean impact would be “ideal” given the circumstances. However, the asteroid could also impact a major city in Central America or Southeast Asia, potentially causing millions of deaths and inevitable global ramifications.
Humanity can redirect asteroids, as demonstrated during the Double AsteroidRedirection Test undertaken by NASA between 2021 and 2022. Asteroid 2024 YR could also be redirected, but Gilbraith suggested that doing so could make the destruction and aftermath even worse.
“There’s a possibility we could get the asteroid to land in the Atlantic Ocean,” he said. “But if we were trying to redirect it from India, it would land in China. Those two nations don't have the best relations to start, and that would cause a big international incident.”
In that scenario, Wyoming might have to worry about the fallout from a nuclear war between India and China. However, there’s no need to worry about any scenario involving an impact of 2024 YR, at least for now.
“The UN has a protocol for planetary defense, and all the world’s designated space organizations can coordinate on this,” he said. “It's not quite at Russian Roulette level of odds, but it's big enough that a lot of planetary defense resources are being triggered right now to confirm that this won't impact.”
Not Extinction Level
Whenever Asteroid 2024 YR impacts Earth, it’ll cause tremendous destruction. However, it won’t be an extinction-level event.
Halley’s Comet reached its farthest point from Earth on Dec. 8, 2023, and the 9.3-mile-wide, 220-trillion-ton “dirty snowball” is hurtling toward Earth at around 31 miles per second. If Halley’s Comet hit the Earth, the energy generated would equal 130 million tons of TNT, 14 times the amount of all the fossil fuels on the planet combined.
That’s similar in size to the asteroid that ended the Mesozoic Era 66 million years ago. That asteroid killed 70% of life on Earth and left a 120-mile-wide crater on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.
Asteroid 2024 YR is paltry in comparison to Halley’s Comet and the Chicxulub asteroid, but it will still have a tremendous impact when it impacts. Wyoming might have to deal with the fallout of an impact in the next decade (if it happens), but Gilbraith doesn’t see this asteroid directly threatening the Cowboy State anytime soon.
“Wyoming should be perfectly safe in 2032, but it’s only a matter of time before this thing hits us,” he said. “It could be 400 years from now or 4,000 years from now, but eventually, this asteroid will probably hit the Earth.”
