As the current year comes to a close, I try to guess what will happen in 2025 in a positive light. The indications are for a better year for most in agriculture.
I realize there are two issues agriculture can’t control – one, of course, is the weather and the other is politics. At least in politics we can lobby, show up and voice our opinions.
Agriculture has had a tough go the last four years, especially in regards to public lands. I realize public land issues are never easy, but I also know in the last four years, we’ve had people in power who didn’t understand agriculture or were against it.
The most positive story in 2024 was the high price of cattle, and those in the know are saying these high prices may last through 2027, as it takes time for cattle numbers to replenish.
This should keep beef prices high, but despite the low numbers now, we are currently seeing cattle being processed that are heavier than ever.
Beef consumers, both nationally and worldwide, are demanding U.S. beef. Even a strong dollar is not stopping high exports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service projects per capita consumption of chicken, turkey, beef and pork to remain stable or grow two percent from 2024 to 2025.
The price of some grains are lower these days and are not expected to rise. These low prices are making it cheaper to feed cattle, hogs and sheep but are terrible for family farmers and their high cost of farming.
Countries like Russia and those in South America are leading markets for grains now as their prices are much lower than the U.S.
President-Elect Trump has campaigned on import tariffs and immigration, which makes agriculture nervous. The U.S. exported $184 billion worldwide in ag products in 2023.
Agriculture and construction are the two domestic industries which are the most reliant on immigration labor. Also, a recent joint study by the national corn and soybean associations estimates the 2018-19 trade war with China cost the U.S. a total of $27 billion in agricultural sales to China over those two years.
Ag is also concerned about tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as farmers have used these countries to fill in lost sales to China. Mexico has become our largest importer overall in 2024. Everyone is concerned with the new administration in Mexico and their friendly ways with Venezuela and Cuba.
U.S. policy is important to agriculture, and Congress has their work cut out for them. It looks like a farm bill will not be passed this year, but it needs to be extended before the year’s end.
The farm bill is the single most important policy platform for rural America and U.S. agriculture.
The 119th Congress will have a long list to do in 2025 as they have been kicking the can down the road in 2024. Besides the Senate nomination hearings for 24 cabinet-level positions, the whole of Congress will have to deal with the federal debt limit in early January.
I sure hope they don’t raise the debt limit again, but instead start limiting the debt. Currently, it takes $1 trillion to service the debt every four months.
Luckily, we will have a president who will make America great again.
Have a great New Year.
Dennis Sun is the publisher of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup, a weekly agriculture newspaper available online and in print. To subscribe, visit wylr.net or call 800-967-1647.
