Any Wyomingite dreaming of a white Christmas might get scattered glimpses of one on Christmas Day even as the weekend has seen above-average springlike temperatures across much of the state.
Beyond that, the winter Wyoming hasn’t experienced much of so far could be coming with a vengeance.
As the final weeks of 2024 approach, there’s a definite change coming that might start soon enough to carry a taste of winter weather across the Cowboy State on Christmas Day. But don’t hold your breath waiting for a Norman Rockwell white Christmas, said Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day.
“If you don’t have snow already, you probably won’t have any snow by Christmas,” he said. “However, I think some lower elevation areas will have those snow showers on or around Wednesday. If you got a sled for Christmas, there may be hope. It’s all up to luck and chance.”
Where It’s White
There are two definitions of what makes for a “white Christmas,” Day said. Some classify it based on snow already on the ground, while others focus on actual snowfall on Christmas Day.
According to these definitions, Day said any place not already with snow won’t have a snow-covered white Christmas.
“There’s pretty good snow cover in the western counties, patches of snow in the Shirley Basin between Laramie and Casper, and some snow around the Black Hills,” he said. “The areas with snow on the ground already will have some white come Christmas Day.”
Day said the most likely snow scenario for Christmas will be “pockets of scattered snow showers” throughout Wyoming. That’s still a white Christmas, even if it isn’t persistently snowing.
“The key word is ‘scattered,’” Day said. “On Wednesday, scattered snow showers will come out of western Wyoming and move west to east. It’s not looking like widespread snow, but it could be enough to get out of the high country and onto the plains.”
Unsettled End, Intense Beginning
The scattered snow showers on Christmas Day will be the harbinger of a winter weather system that will ring in the new year. Day said the days between Christmas and New Year’s Day will begin to look a more like winter, just a bit later than many would like.
“Things get a lot more interesting starting Christmas Day,” he said. “A colder, more unsettled pattern with better snow chances will move in between Christmas and New Year's. That will bring widespread winter weather, and more will be coming in behind it.”
If any of this sounds familiar, it’s eerily similar to what Wyoming experienced last year.
After a dry December and brown Christmas, an intense polar vortex brought heavy snow and freezing temperaturesto the Western states during the first weeks of 2024.
When it comes to weather, everything old is new again, and Day believes the same cycles that happened last year could play out again in early 2025.
“Last year, we had a really warm front end of December, and it got cold and snowy in January,” he said. “It looks like that's when we'll see winter kick in this year. We're continuing to see signals that there's going to be a big realignment taking place in the Pacific Ocean, and it’s all about the Pacific in Wyoming.”
Day’s forecasts rely heavily on historical patterns. Wyoming’s history provides a precedent for what has happened and what could be coming.
“I can't remember a lot of really cold Novembers and Decembers that led into really cold Januarys or Februarys,” he said. “You get either/or — a colder November/December and a relatively warmer January/February. To use a sports analogy, it’s tough to go wire to wire in this part of the world.”
No Place Like Home For The Holidays
Anyone traveling through Wyoming between now and Christmas Day shouldn’t expect to run into any highway hazards. However, they shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of security.
On a national scale, Day said there will be plenty of winter weather that could complicate interstate and aerial Christmas travels. It’ll depend on where you are and where you’re going.
“Before Christmas, there will be some unsettled weather in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and areas west of the Continental Divide that will impact the mountain passes of Wyoming,” he said. “Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and the Dakotas are getting snow now, but that’ll get better before Christmas.”
After Christmas, Wyoming will start experiencing some of the winter storms that have been slamming the eastern half of the U.S. for several weeks. A white Christmas will be the first sign of a westward shift toward more snow and subzero temperatures.
“I think we'll probably have our biggest travel problems just after Christmas and just past New Year's Day,” Day said. “People need to keep their antennas up, so to speak.”
Keep Dreaming
Overall, anyone who defines a Wyoming white Christmas by a snow-covered landscape will likely be disappointed come Christmas Day. Meanwhile, those happy to see any snow on Christmas should have something to look forward to.
Regardless, winter is coming. December might have been dry, but plenty of heavy snow and subzero spells are on their way.
“Categorically, can I say the whole state has a chance of a white Christmas on Christmas Day? It’s possible, but there are better chances in some places than others,’” said Day. “If you don't have snow on the ground now, you're probably not going to have it between now and Christmas, but snow showers on Christmas Day are possible.”
Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.
