Republican Tim Sheehy was recruited like a star player to a team that’s used to winning in Montana. Republicans have historically dominated the state since the mid-2000s, except when it came to Sen. Jon Tester.
A dirt farming Democrat with a flattop haircut, Tester tossed sand in the eyes of Republican candidates for three straight election cycles, pulling off narrow victories in a state that hasn’t supported a Democrat for president in 30 years.
Tester attracted crossover voters and won races with 50% or less of the total vote, starting with an upset victory over the once powerful Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006.
But this year, Sheehy overcame negative ads calling him a rich carpetbagger from Minnesota to blow past Tester and win by 8 percentage points on Election Day. The victory is evidence that Montana is growing increasingly red as GOP-leaning newcomers flood the state.
Montana’s population surged by 38% over the last four decades, and according to data by voter research firm L2, between October 2008 and May 2024, for every two Democrats moving to Montana, slightly more than three Republicans showed up to claim their piece of Big Sky Country.
"Montana changed in terms of demographics because of the pandemic. What happened is people in places like California and Washington that were frustrated with the lockdown orders, they moved to places like Montana to escape that," said David Parker, professor emeritus of political science at Montana State University. "Also, there's an increasing propensity for people because of polarization to simply just vote a straight ticket. They don't know who John Tester is."
Changing Montana
Tester grew up in a town with fewer than 600 people. He played high school football for the Big Sandy Pioneers. And when small schools play teams from bigger towns, those teams have a decided advantage because they draw from a bigger pool of students to field a bigger and better team.
Similarly, his opponent Sheehy quarterbacked a senate campaign that drew from a much larger pool of Republican voter support than Tester’s past challengers.
Sheehy was the youthful, flashy upstart, hand-picked by Montana Sen. Steve Daines, who chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Daines made his fortune alongside current Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte when they sold a Bozeman software company to Oracle and used the proceeds to take over the Montana Republican party. In Sheehy, they found a kindred spirit. A former Navy Seal, Sheehy is a Bozeman entrepreneur with All-American good looks and an appetite for owning luxury properties.
Many in Montana blame out-of-state second-home owners for running up the cost of housing, and Tester tried to cast Sheehy in that light. But the smear didn’t stick, and neither did attacks on “Shady Sheehy” for lying about his military service record and harmful racial stereotypes he made toward “drunk” Native Americans.
On the stump, Sheehy seemed as if he was no match for Tester, who turned his downhome coffee-and-pie conversation skills into three terms in the U.S. Senate. During his time in D.C., Tester was known for stocking his freezer with wild game from Montana and supporting legislation to protect public lands.
Tester campaign ads cast Sheehy as a rich out-of-stater who charged hunters more than $12,000 for the privilege to hunt trophy elk on his acreage that has private access to prime hunting grounds on national forest land.
What Controversy?
This attack and others got Tester’s base fired up but did little to turn up the heat on Sheehy.
MSU's Parker said it's hard for criticisms to stick when a growing Republican base in Montana is voting a straight ticket. Also, at the same time more GOP-leaning voters moved into Montana, said Parker, rural voters from instate moved into Montana's more urban counties.
"The places that used to be reliable for Democrats like Tester, Cascade County, ain't there anymore," explained Parker. "Billings. Well, no longer the case because what's happened to Yellowstone County is that you've had an influx of people from eastern Montana who are conservative."
During a debate with Tester, Sheehy came across as confident and unwavering, making clear his position on abortion, telling women in Montana, “I’ll always protect the three rights for women: rape, incest, life of the mother.”
He also effectively used the controversy around gender identity to put a wedge between Tester and some potential crossover voters, joking that his pronouns are “Shee” and “Hy.”
Talking with a small crowd at the Lost Cabin Bar in Twin Bridges, Montana, in September, Sheehy used that joke on the stump, then explained how he fell in love with Montana while training in the state with his Navy Seal team.
The rookie GOP candidate asked the crowd if any recalled seeing a Seal Team at the local rodeo 15 or so years ago.
“And if any of you remember a rodeo where there was a whole bunch of football player looking guys standing around getting way too drunk, that was probably me and my Seal Team here because then we hung out at the Blue Anchor (another local bar) until God knows what time,” laughed Sheehy.
Wrapping up the personal anecdotes he used to connect to the crowd, Sheehy said his wife Carmen came to visit him on one of his training trips to Montana. That’s when the couple decided they would eventually settle in the Big Sky State.
Sheehy and his wife were not alone. When another SUV with out-of-state plates pulls a U-Haul trailer into Montana, odds are a Republican is behind the wheel. Evidence of those new arrivals started showing up in polling numbers as it appeared Sheehy was surging ahead in September and October. On Election Day, those new voters handed the race to Sheehy.
