Melanie Zimmerman took a drive up to Burgess Junction, Wyoming, to look at the Elk Fire’s aftermath.
It was a sea of black everywhere she looked.
“It was so stark,” she told Cowboy State Daily. “From soil to tip of burnt trees, all black. We are so used to seeing the beautiful deep, green pines.”
Now instead, blackened sticks have replaced beautiful trees, standing up in a sea of charred pine needles.
But there were also areas where the fire inexplicably stopped, leaving a line of untouched trees — little flags of green life that filled Zimmerman with hope for rebirth.
“It could have been worse, we keep saying,” she said. “It could have been much worse. If the winds had not shifted and if the rain-snow had not fallen.”
Zimmerman is not the only one looking with a critical eye at the Elk Fire’s devastation of more than 98,000 acres of forest land across the eastern face of the Bighorn Mountains in northern Wyoming. The fire is an estimated 88% contained.
A team of specialists, called a Burned Area Emergency Response team (BAER), also is evaluating damage caused by the Elk Fire, and looking at a slate of potential risks that range from invasive weed species to flooding and mudslides.
“We have hydrologists who look at increased water flow, and we have soil scientists who look at impacts to the soil,” BAER co-team leader Jamie Krezelok told Cowboy State Daily. “We have geologists who look at the potential for debris flow (mudslides) and we have archaeologists who go out and ensure that cultural and historic properties are protected.”
Rangeland management specialists and botanists on the team are looking at invasive species that could spread to disturbed areas, while engineers are surveying roads and recreation specialists are mapping risks on trails and recreation sites.
Their work is taking place through a combination of aerial surveys and foot patrols, Krezelok said.
Determining The Damage
The team has already produced a soil burn severity map, which will help them to target the areas of highest risk. That map shows just 28% of the fire’s area burned at the moderate to severe levels, which is the area of most concern.
The remaining 72% should have intact roots, a key element that helps prevent things like flooding, mudslides and erosion.
Roots not only help keep soil intact, but they will drink up any excess water from rain and snowmelt that could otherwise contribute to subsidence and mudslides.
The hot spots in a fire are generally the places where big logs were downed, allowing the fire to sit in one place for a prolonged period of time. Forest fires can reach or even exceed temperatures of 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit — a fifth of the temperature of the sun’s surface.
Soil isn’t a good conductor of heat, so that temperature doesn’t necessarily penetrate deeply, but such intense temperatures can ignite soil organic matter and kill or burn out roots. It can also change the soil’s character, making it powdery — more prone to erosion.
Resins burned off leaves and other organic materials sometimes remain in heavily burned areas, causing a waxy coating that might contribute to faster water runoff and a flooding situation.
“For a fire of this magnitude, 28% is really fairly low for the moderate and high soil burn severity,” Krezelok said. “That’s not to say there’s not going to be any impacts. There will be in some places. And it will usually take one to five years for things to recover.”
Members of the Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team assess the damage left by the wildfire and what will need to be done to repair or mitigate damages or other threats, like potential for invasive weeds, mudslides and debris flows. (Courtesy Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team) 
Members of the Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team assess the damage left by the wildfire and what will need to be done to repair or mitigate damages or other threats, like potential for invasive weeds, mudslides and debris flows. (Courtesy Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team) 
Members of the Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team assess the damage left by the wildfire and what will need to be done to repair or mitigate damages or other threats, like potential for invasive weeds, mudslides and debris flows. (Courtesy Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team)
Healing The Forest
For the most part, that reclamation will be allowed to happen naturally.
“Because of the steepness of the slopes, it’s hard to do any large-scale type of projects,” Krezelok said.
There could be some small-scale seeding projects, particularly if there are areas identified with cultural or historic assets to protect from flooding and erosion.
Not all of the effects of wildfire are negative. Certain species, like lodgepole pine and aspen trees need fire to germinate new seedlings.
The fire can also help clear out thick grasses that have become overgrown, and the burned organic matter does add some nutrients to the soil. Although the heat can also drive off one of the most important nutrients of all, nitrogen.
These are all factors that will be considered in the BAER team’s analysis.
One of the biggest risks the Elk Fire has left is the potential for mudslides and flooding, both of which tend to happen most in areas of moderate to severe burn.
“We are specifically looking at those and how those risks will affect our property and users on Forest Service lands,” Krezelok said. “Our specialists are working through proposed treatments to reduce those risks.”
Those treatments typically would anticipate, based on the hydrology report, where water is going to flow, and what assets might be at risk. Culverts might be removed or increased accordingly, and other measures taken to ensure these risks are managed appropriately.
(Burned Area Emergency Response Team) 
An illustration from the U.S. Geological Service showing how debris flows work after a wildfire. (Courtesy Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team) 
An illustration explaining landslides and debris flow potential after a wildfire. (Courtesy Elk Fire Burned Area Emergency Response Team)
Mudslides And Weeds
Mudslides, however, are another matter.
“There’s no treatments that you can propose to reduce the risk of mudslides or stop them,” Krezelok said. “So, we put out hazard warning signs in locations on roads and trails to warn people of the risks. And sometimes, we do have closures to protect people, if the risk is too high.”
Invasive weeds are another large risk from the Elk Fire. A huge, blank canvas for weeds to take hold has just been created, thanks to the fire. But there are also concerns at the fire break lines that were dug by both hand and dozers. Those disturbed areas are more likely to be colonized by weeds than native plants, which can take much longer to take hold.
“Ventenata is one that I know folks are very concerned about,” Krezelok said. “And Medusahead, cheatgrass and a number of other invasive species that our specialists have spelled out and will be treating.”
This will likely involve some scouting in the spring, particularly in disturbed areas.
“Fortunately, the Forest Service has already done their NEPA analysis to allow for mechanical treatment, hand treatment, and aerial treatment of those invasive species so they can get ahead of it,” Krezelok said. “They already have a tool in place.”
The National Environmental Policy Act analysis was done in 2022, prompted because some weeds had already spotted in the forest, and managers wanted to be able to respond proactively.
The BAER team’s recommendations are expected to be completed within the next week, after which they will be reviewed by the Rocky Mountain Regional Office of the Forest Service, which is in Denver.
That should only take about a week, Krezelok said.
Once approved, funding for the work is already available, as part of the federal government’s annual appropriations process, she added.
That should put boots on the ground in the Bighorn Mountains within a couple of weeks to start handling the biggest risks caused by the Elk fire as soon as possible.
Renée Jean can be reached at renee@cowboystatedaily.com.
