Who poses the greatest threat to jobs in Wyoming? Kamala Harris? The Freedom Caucus? Someone else? Something else?
To understand job threats, we have to understand the statistics surrounding mining jobs and government employment – which have been the subject of political wrangling.
Mining jobs increased from 2022 to 2023, by 782 new jobs or a 4.7% increase (a surprise during the Biden administration). The average annual wage for this sector was $104,556.
Extractive industries comprised 6.1% of all jobs in the state equaling 10.9% of the state’s total payroll.
During the decade from 2013 to 2023, mining lost more than 9,500 jobs, or approximately one-third of all mining jobs that existed in 2013.
The most precipitous decline was in mining jobs was during Obama Administration from 2015 to 2017. During the end of the Trump Administration, and prior to COVID, the industry in Wyoming also showed a decline of 5,000 jobs.
The job loss shows a direct correlation with the period of economic downturn in the country – not federal policy.
One can conclude that while the attack on fossil fuels by a potential Harris Administration is real, other factors also underlie job losses including cheaper alternate fuels and economic conditions.
The other employment sector subject to campaign claims is government jobs.
Cutting the budget in Wyoming means cutting jobs. Government jobs can be broken down into federal, state, local, education and health care. Despite political claims to the contrary, government employment has decreased over the last 10 years.
In 2023, government employees consisted of 7,565 federal employees, 12,233 state employees, 45,114 local government employees, 21,959 local educators and 8,720 healthcare and social service workers.
According to an employment analysis conducted by the Federal Reserve, the number of state employees has decreased from 15,700 in 2013 to 14,200 in 2022 or a net decrease of 1,500 state government employees.
Local government employees decreased by 3,000 employees over the 10-year period from 2014 to 2024.
Local government employment numbers fluctuated seasonally, with more temporary employees working for local government during the summer months.
In 2014, local government employment peaked at a high of 50,000 employees. In 2024, that number was 47,050 employees. While recent times have shown a slight increase in government employment, the level of employment is far less than the 2014 level.
The number of federal employees is outside the control of Wyoming elected officials.
But understanding federal employment is necessary to understand Wyoming’s future. Federal employment peaks in the summer months as temporary employees like firefighters and park employees are hired. Most of the federal employees in Wyoming are associated with land management.
If Wyoming is successful in its attempts to take over the federal lands within its borders, the state can expect to hire several thousand employees to manage the state lands. The state will also have to come up with the resources to pay for and manage fires on the newly acquired federal lands. (The fire suppression costs this past summer would have bankrupted the state this year.)
The rallying-cry this campaign has been to cut the budget. Cutting the budget in Wyoming means cutting jobs. Dollars in Wyoming equal jobs. So, if the Legislature is serious about making meaningful cuts in the state budget, it is going to have to fire people.
To date, those campaigns have been largely silent about whom they want to fire.
The Department of Health, K-12 education, the University of Wyoming and Community Colleges comprise 50% of the state’s budget.
As the new folks take power, we will all have to judge whether the complaints about the state budget were just political fodder to take power, or whether the new administration is serious about cutting the budget.
We’ll see if the new leaders have the political courage to fire people, tell them they cannot support their families, and put them on unemployment because their jobs do not align with a particular political priority. Actually doing something is much harder than bloviating about it.
Who is the greatest threat to employment in Wyoming – the Harris administration or the Freedom Caucus? In a way, they both are.
Tom Lubnau served in the Wyoming Legislature from 2004 - 2015 and is a former Speaker of the House. He can be reached at: YourInputAppreciated@gmail.com
