It would be at least a little ironic if Wyoming Democrats were to gain seats in the Legislature after the November general election, which would mark the first time in 10 years the party has grown its representation.
Thanks to their success in the primary election, the group of farther right Republicans known as the Wyoming Freedom Caucus are nearly guaranteed to hold a majority of the state House after the election. This came at the expense of the more moderate Republican group known as the Wyoming Caucus, which organized to directly oppose the Freedom Caucus.
Some members of the Wyoming Caucus have painted a bleak outlook for Wyoming as a result of this takeover.
The Freedom Caucus takes a hardline social conservative approach to government, advocating for significant cuts to the state budget and property taxes, and state-level regulation of many issues.
Wyoming Democrats, who now hold only seven of the state’s 93 legislative seats, are now hoping for support from Republicans who align more with the Wyoming Caucus to vote for them instead of Freedom Caucus Republicans.
Minority Position
The number of Democrats in Wyoming has been dwindling for years, with party members urging a need to gain back seats in the Legislature. Gaining back some power in the Legislature is seen as an attainable goal for many Wyoming Democrats as opposed to hoping to ply back one of the state’s three congressional seats, which haven’t been held by a Democrat since 1978.
One of the best chances the 16 Democratic candidates running for legislative seats may have for winning their elections this fall, as has been the case in recent years, is peeling off Republican voters to support their campaigns. They’re banking on the potential that disaffected Republicans concerned about the Freedom Caucus could do that.
Because of the overwhelming majority of Republicans in the state, Democrats running in contested races in Wyoming usually have to rely on getting at least some Republican support to win their campaigns, proven in the elections of former Govs. Dave Freudenthal and Mike Sullivan and numerous state legislators over the past few decades.
State Rep. Karlee Provenza, D-Laramie, makes no bones about soliciting bipartisan support. Provenza hails from a conservative family and has been a registered Republican in the past.
“I have won both of my elections with the support of Republicans and I intend to do so this time,” Provenza said. “I have been a successful lawmaker because of my relationships with Republicans in my district and in the Legislature. I don't ascribe to the idea that I should steer clear of people based on political affiliation, and I find it unfortunate when others do.”
Can Dems Make Up Ground?
If the results of the primary stand through the general election, the Freedom Caucus will have gained 11 seats in the House heading into the 2025 legislative session.
Members of the Wyoming Caucus have tended to vote closer with Democrats on some issues.
Provenza believes that dishonest mudslinging and rhetoric led to the low voter turnout in the August primary and that the final results allowed for the election of some “extremists.”
Now, she said, voters have a chance to change the narrative.
“I think this is an opportunity to pick up more Democratic seats,” Provenza said. “Wyoming Democrats have the same values as the majority of our neighbors ¬— hard work, honesty and freedom. Those shared values are what makes Wyoming great and keeps us coming back to help each other fix our fences and care for our neighbors.”
Any Democratic gains in the general election would likely be mostly symbolic as only five of the party’s challengers are going up against candidates endorsed or politically aligned with the Freedom Caucus.
State Rep. John Bear, R-Gillette, chairman of the Freedom Caucus, is aware of the numbers and said although he doesn’t want to lose any members, he believes a small Democratic burst would be insignificant in the overall picture.
“I obviously don’t want to lose any of the seats that we’ve gained, but we gained so many in the primary I think the output of the Legislature is going to be different no matter what,” he said.
Bear said the Freedom Caucus will have to look at each race individually in the general election to decide their exact approach, but plan to highlight the incumbent candidate’s voting records just as they did in the primary.
“But it doesn’t have to be as aggressive because of the overwhelming Republican voting numbers in most of the districts,” he said.
What It Would Mean
Democrats haven’t gained seats in the Wyoming Legislature since the 2014 election.
After holding nine members in the House for a few election cycles, they lost three in 2020 and then another in 2022, bringing them to their current representation of five. They fared no better in the Senate during that time, dwindling from five seats in 2014 to the current two.
There are no incumbent Democrat senators up for reelection this year, so the Democrats can only go up from there. At most, the Democrats could gain up to three seats in the Senate, but all of these challengers face strong opponents in state Sen. John Kolb, R-Rock Springs, Rep. Jared Olsen, R-Cheyenne, and former University of Wyoming football star Gary Crum.
But in the House, the Democrats might have a few legitimate opportunities.
Rep. Ken Chestek, D-Laramie, said he feels good about the Democrats’ chances of gaining seats, but wouldn’t speculate on why.
“We’ve got some great candidates who could appeal to the crossover voter,” he said. “I like our chances in a number of races. Whether that’s a reaction to the Freedom Caucus or based on good candidates, I’m not going to speculate.”
Fremont County Race
Fort Washakie resident Ivan Posey is taking on Rep. Sarah Penn, R-Fort Washakie, in an attempt to turn House District 33 back to blue after a two-year hiatus. HD 33 encompasses both the Wind River Reservation, which tends to vote more Democratic, and more rural areas and towns like Hudson and Atlantic City, which historically lean more conservative.
Posey, a Native American, is a well-known figure within the community. He’s optimistic about his chances, but also a little concerned about what the turnout will be in his race, particularly among younger voters. The low turnout seen in the primary should be boosted by the spike of voters that normally comes on presidential election years.
To win this race, Penn and Posey will have to gain some support from all the groups of people they represent.
“You have to take a balanced approach,” said Posey, who considers himself a “conservative Democrat.”
“There’s a lot of ranchers, I’ll need to appeal to them also,” he said. “If elected, I’ll have to work with mostly conservatives.”
Rep. Ember Oakely, R-Riverton, a member of the Wyoming Caucus who lost her primary election in the next district over, isn’t convinced that opposition to the Freedom Caucus alone will turn into votes for Democrats.
“I don’t think Republicans in that district are any more savvy to the damage I believe the Freedom Caucus will do,” she said.
During competitive general election races, leading candidates typically moderate their stances a bit to appeal to a wider audience.
“Many traditional democrats have been left behind by their party as it's moved far left on so many issues,” Penn said. “When people honestly examine their values, more often I hear that they realize we are more closely aligned than they originally thought. If people are able to see beyond labels, we very often find that we have a lot of common ground.”
Other Races To Watch
Another race with some potential close competitiveness is House District 11 in Cheyenne, where newcomer Jacob Wasserburger is taking on former state legislator Sarah Burlingame. Burlingame has strong name recognition as a former legislator and director of LGBTQ advocacy organization Wyoming Equality, and from running in the 2020 and 2022 elections.
Cheyenne resident Jen Solis is taking on Republican challenger Gary Brown in the general election, who beat Rep. Bill Henderson, R-Cheyenne, in the primary. Solis, who lost to Henderson in 2022, said she is actively recruiting voters of all stripes to support her campaign.
Brown said while campaigning in his district, he experienced a common sentiment of dissatisfaction with Henderson’s representation and that the Wyoming state government is wasting taxpayers’ money.
“Overtaxing and wasting the people’s money is not only wrong, it is immoral. I talked about these principles with the people throughout House District 41 and they agreed with me,” Brown said. “I believe that these are ideas that Democrat and Independent voters in my District would also agree are best for Wyoming.”
Solis is putting up “Republicans For Solis” yard signs around her district for her campaign and believes that working with neighbors doesn’t have to be a partisan affair.
“I’ve always done well with Republicans,” she said. “I’m a super moderate Democrat and a Wyoming Democrat.”
Solis pointed out that Wyoming Democrats tend to be a bit more centrist and even conservative than the national party. Brown is politically aligned with the Freedom Caucus, who Solis said she isn’t opposed to having representation in Wyoming, but is concerned about being the dominant force in Wyoming politics.
One Republican who says she’ll vote Democrat in the general election is Cheyenne resident Peg Ostlund.
Ostlund’s Republican father John Ostlund was narrowly beaten in the 1978 Wyoming governor’s race by former Gov. Ed Herschler, and she worked for former Wyoming Senator Malcolm Wallop. She said the modern Republicans in power in Wyoming today are much different than the ones who used to preside over the state. She considers the recent political developments in Wyoming “a cancer.”
But Ostlund isn’t your average Wyoming Republican, voting for President Joe Biden in 2020 and supporting other Democratic Legislature candidates like Burlingame in the past.
The Freedom Caucus hasn’t endorsed any of the Republicans running against the three Democratic House incumbents in Laramie, but Bear told Cowboy State Daily on Thursday he likes what he sees out of those GOP candidates.
Provenza said she won’t shy away from criticizing the Freedom Caucus during her campaign.
“The people of Wyoming deserve leaders with a vision of where we can go and how we will serve them,” she said. “When the priorities of any caucus gets in the way of building that brighter future, then I’ll be honest and open with my community about that threat.”
Leo Wolfson can be reached at leo@cowboystatedaily.com.
