The National Weather Service office in Cheyenne is calling for "monsoon moisture" in southeastern Wyoming on Friday and Saturday, but it'll take a lot more than a monsoon to stop the momentum of Cheyenne Frontier Days.
The monsoon moisture will come from scattered but intense thunderstorms expected to move through the southern Cowboy State. The NWS Cheyenne office cautions that some areas may experience flash flooding, and there's always a chance for hail as well.
Anyone with CFD tickets for Friday and Saturday might want to bring a poncho to the rodeo. Yet, even if there are a few weather-related delays, the show will go on.
It will take more than drenching rain to do much to impact the “Daddy of ’em All” for more than a short while.
"My money would be that, if there is a delay, that day's rodeo will finish sometime that day," said Phil Van Horn, former chairman of Cheyenne Frontier Days. "We've been through monsoonal rain before, and the show kept going."
Where There's Weather
The weather pattern that will reach eastern Wyoming on Friday descended on the western half of the state Thursday.
The clouds are building moisture as they go, which means the dry thunderstorms that have become common in the summer afternoons and evenings will have some rain.
"The pattern will favor thunderstorms, and they will have water to work with, but not everybody's going to get them," Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day said Thursday. "They'll be scattered but with the potential to produce some heavy downpours today, tomorrow and Saturday."
‘A Good Chance’
Day said the high-elevation regions of Wyoming will get the first and worst of the thunderstorms, but the southcentral region has "the best chance" of experiencing enhanced thunderstorms.
I could see some the heavier thunderstorms in the Snowy Range, the Sierra Madres and along the I-80 corridor," he said. "What tends to happen in these thunderstorms is that they start in the high country, drift out across the plains, then grow and tap into that moisture. The areas immediately downwind of a mountain range are the most likely to get the heaviest rainfall."
Day said that means there's "a very good chance" of thunderstorms during Cheyenne Frontier Days.
"Anticipate afternoon and evening thunderstorms both days," he said. "The good news is it can cool things off and make it a lot more comfortable by late afternoon or evening. But I do think that there'll be a couple of days here, Friday and Saturday, where it could impact Cheyenne Frontier Days."
Rein In The Rain
As Van Horn recalls, there have been several wet and dry years during his time at Cheyenne Frontier Days. But it's never been enough to stop the fun.
"In 1982, it rained every day," he said. "I remember one of our volunteers who was qualified to run heavy equipment was blading the track with a Caterpillar bulldozer every day, piling the mud along the fence so the track could work."
Monsoonal rain makes the arena sloppy, making it more hazardous for the "animal athletes," as Van Horn called them, impacting every event.
"All events, from rough stock to barrel racing, are affected by heavy rains when we get them," he said.
Nevertheless, in more than 40 years with Cheyenne Frontier Days, Van Horn couldn't recall a single occasion when the weather canceled or delayed anything for very long.
Fans, participants and the grounds crews at Frontier Park can weather any weather, he said.
"The spirit of the volunteers and those who work on the grounds crew year-round is, 'We have patrons in town, this is our best foot forward, we're going to put on the show.' It may take them a little while to get it ready, but they will go forward."
Hail Havoc
The worst weather Van Horn could remember during Cheyenne Frontier Days was a few severe hailstorms, which can cause injury and always spark chaos. He remembered a night five years ago when the approaching "ugly skies" of gray and purple clouds finally released their fury over Frontier Park.
"The rain and hail were heavy enough that the show was briefly suspended," he said. "The patrons were asked to get underneath the grandstands because of the hail in the rain."
But once the deluge stopped, the rodeo resumed. Grounds crews worked after the night show to remove as much water as possible from the arena and resumed their work in the early morning.
"The grounds crew at Frontier Park does a good job either way," Van Horn said. “And they've gotten better and better with each year."
Look And Listen
If severe weather is approaching during Cheyenne Frontier Days, patrons should stay alert. Van Horn said the announcers will receive plenty of advance notice of any inclement weather and communicate what they know over the public address system.
"They're tied in with the weather folks out on the Warren Air Force Base and the National Weather Service," he said. "They have lots of advance notification if there is going to be severe weather coming in. If you pay attention to what the announcer is saying, they'll keep the crowd informed of what needs to be done."
While there is no heightened concern about flash flooding, Day said Wyoming is particularly prone to flooding in late July and early August. Wyomingites in Cheyenne and elsewhere should stay aware of their surroundings if they get caught in monsoonal rain.
"We've had big flash floods in late July and early August," Day said. "This is the time of year when the thunderstorms can become gully washers. If you're in the wrong place at the wrong time, and you're caught underneath a thunderstorm or there's one upstream from you, you have to be made sure that you exercise caution and are aware of your surroundings."
While the chances of a flash flood at Cheyenne Frontier Days are low, there's a good chance people could get wet while watching this weekend. It might be a good time to pick up a poncho or an umbrella and hope your hat doesn't have too many holes in it.
However, this won't be sensational news to anyone who's enjoyed Cheyenne Frontier Days over the years. Van Horn said rain and thunderstorms might as well be annually scheduled events.
"The locals will say we'll always get our rain during Frontier Days," he said. “I don't know if we get a monsoonal pattern on an annual basis or biannual basis, but we've had many years where it's been dry and dusty. That's never enough to stop the show, and it won't stop it this year."
Andrew Rossi can be reached at arossi@cowboystatedaily.com.
