Just how influential is Liz Cheney outside of Wyoming?
That will be put to the test on Tuesday as the renegade congresswoman has endorsed three Democrats running for Congress. All are in competitive races.
Michigan
In Michigan’s 7th District, Cheney backed incumbent Democrat Elissa Slotkin over Republican Tom Barrett.
According to election site FiveThirtyEight, Slotkin is slightly favored to win.
Six polls are influencing FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, including the Mitchell Research and Communications firm, which gave Barrett a 1-point lead in a poll conducted Nov. 2, and the Glengarrif Group polls, which favored Slotkin by 6 points but was conducted Oct. 18-20.
The Cook Political Report also slightly favors Slotkin and has put it in its “Democrat Toss Up” category.
Virginia
In Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, Cheney backed Democrat two-term incumbent Abigail Spanberger over Republican challenger Yesli Vega.
FiveThirtyEight puts Spanberger in the “favored to win” column. The Cook Political Report believes it’s a little more close and, while it slightly favors Spanberger to win re-election, the race has been tagged a Democrat Toss Up.
Pollster Larry Sabato agrees with FiveThirtyEight that Spanberger is favored to win.
Ohio
As for the third endorsement, Cheney stands a much more likely chance of losing that race.
Cheney backs Democrat Tim Ryan over Republican J.D. Vance. The most recent polls are not on Cheney’s side.
“The public polling suggests Republican J.D. Vance is headed for a relative blowout victory,” writes Politico. “He led Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by 10 points in the two most recent surveys, including one from the Democratic firm Data for Progress.”
All three races are on Eastern Standard Time.
Arizona
Although Cheney didn’t formally endorse any candidates in Arizona, she encouraged voters not to vote for Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem, both of whom have disputed the 2020 presidential election results.
In nearly all major polls, Lake is the favorite to win. Finchem, meanwhile, is lagging in the two most recent polls.
