A person can usually tell which topics are of high priority in the U.S., as politicians start introducing bills on the issue and, in some cases, the president signs executive orders.
Throw in important state and national elections, and it can get a little out of hand.
As it so happens, in the last 60 days, our current administration became focused on the price of beef. They figured bringing in more cheap lean beef without tariffs would help lower the price of hamburger.
So far, it hasn’t helped much, as after 30 days, not many tons have been imported and the price of retail ground beef has only dropped around 13 cents a pound. But during those 30 days, the price of cull cows and bulls – which are usually sold for lean beef – dropped $17.21 a pound or more.
This hurt the hand that feeds it but didn’t do much for the consumer.
In September, all meat prices fell slightly, but consumer inflation rose, mainly due to gas prices at the pump.
However, the latest Consumer Price Index showed food prices 2.3 percent higher than a year ago. Consumers can’t get a break with the high price of gas and diesel. Remember, ranchers and farmers are consumers too.
Overall, meat prices fell 0.9 percent in September and then more than two percent in the third quarter, but for the last 12 months, meat prices have been 1.3 percent higher.
If you are in the cattle business, either raising or feeding cattle, it is a bit confusing. From consumers up to politicians, everyone wants cheaper beef.
But don’t forget there are those who raise or feed cattle saying, “We need fair beef prices to stay in business and inputs are killing us. Also, we would have more cattle if we weren’t in a major drought.”
Drought is currently a big issue, in addition to input costs. For most ranchers facing drought, it is better to sell cattle today than feed expensive hay all winter.
Studies have shown around 80 percent of the U.S. cattle herd is in a drought area with pastures in poor or below normal condition.
Keeping heifers for replacements is out of the question, and some are trying to get another year out of their older pregnant cows.
Despite all of the attention beef is getting, the fourth quarter of 2026 looks to be more stable for beef prices.
Choice boxed beef cutout values have become constant in the $375 to $380 per hundredweight range, but ribeyes and New York strips have been traded at record levels since early August.
As we go into the holiday season, demand will most likely increase for loin steaks and roasts.
The outlook does not look favorable for cattle numbers to increase by much, but demand for beef nationally and overseas is still high.
Saving heifers for replacements to increase the herd takes a couple of years, plus growing numbers take a steady fair market, a lot of planning and moisture.
Most grazing lands will take time to recover, and low cattle numbers will be around for a while.
Dennis Sun is the publisher of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup.
