One More For The Road

Cowboy State Daily's Wendy Corr traded her RV in for a new sports car. Unfortunately, there was a learning curve.....

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Cowboy State Daily is Wyoming’s largest newspaper with Wyoming’s most experienced journalists. 

<title>One More For The Road: Tuesday, February 11, 2025 | Cowboy State Daily</title>

One More For The Road: Tuesday, February 11, 2025

 Cowboy State Daily's Wendy Corr traded her RV in for a new sports car. Unfortunately, there was a learning curve.....

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's general assignment reporter, Clair McFarland.

Clair McFarland

Politics

Government & Politics

U.S. House candidate Chuck Gray’s recent campaign poll contained subjective attacks, 

images of the poll questions provided to Cowboy State Daily, coupled with an interview,

 that Gray sent a poll by high-profile pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, which worked with President Donald Trump’s campaigns.

The poll showed Gray leading at 21% support, with nine other candidates trailing at 14% and less. There also were 33% who registered as “strong undecided."

The poll also contained a push phase, where recipients received “information” about Gray and two of his opponents, Casper-businessman Reid Rasner and Teton County philanthropist Steve Friess, according to a methodology breakdown included in the poll memo Gray sent Cowboy State Daily.

After the “information” dump, Gray’s percentage points doubled, while Rasner’s and Friess’s sunk.

The “information” comprised bizarre and subjective campaign attacks, a survey recipient told Cowboy State Daily soon after the 

Former state Rep. Ember Oakley, a Republican and former legislator who now lives in Kemmerer, was one of those who took the poll. She sent Cowboy State Daily screenshots she said she took while answering the May 13 survey.

[{"type":"text","text":"'His Family's Wealth'"}]

“Steve Friess is a Jackson Hole elitist who has never held a real job and has lived his entire life off his family’s wealth,” one screenshot says. “The same out-of-touch privilege that leaves him completely disconnected from the struggles of working families in Wyoming.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Friess told Cowboy State Daily prior that he’s worked in finance."}]

He has been active as a philanthropist, and helped form executive order drafts to offer to Trump upon the president’s first inauguration in 2017.

Friess and his wife also founded a Christian school, Jackson Hole Classical Academy, in 2014.

[{"type":"text","text":"Oakley said she found the push poll’s information laughable."}]

“That was straight irony,” she said. “Chuck Gray, as far as I know, and I’ve asked, hasn’t had a career or a real, legitimate job before he got into Wyoming politics."

Gray, who is 36, told Cowboy State Daily prior that he worked in his father’s radio business. He has been in Wyoming politics since at least 2017, when he joined the Wyoming House of Representatives.

“His campaign money and everything, his finances, have been 

,” said Oakley. “To write that Friess is out of touch because he’s lived off his family’s wealth and hasn’t had a real job is, like, describing Chuck.”  

[{"type":"text","text":"Oakley then laughed. "}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Friess’s campaign manager declined to comment Monday."}]

The “information” the poll reportedly dispatched about Rasner contained more objective information, but at least one subjective theory and some loaded framing.

“Reid Rasner married his gay husband in New York, hyphenated his name like a Hollywood celebrity, then divorced him in Wyoming and hit him with a strict gag order — banning his ex-husband from using his name mentioning his job, or even referring to details of their marriage on podcasts or social media,” says one of the screenshots.

While many of those facts are correct, nothing in the court documents that underpin them accuses Rasner of behaving “like a Hollywood celebrity.”

Rasner had married a man in New York, New York in 2012, and the pair divorced in 2020, Wyoming court documents show.

 the pair not to make derogatory comments about one another. After the ex-husband took to his podcast and the Internet to talk about Rasner, the judge ordered the 

 man to show cause, then issued a stipulated order in 2022 containing numerous specific bans.

“Defendant shall never insinuate any facts about plaintiff that would negatively impact his type of employment as a financial planner” or say other, certain salacious things about him, the judge ordered.

Rasner’s campaign spokesman did not respond by publication to a text message request for comment.

[{"type":"text","text":"‘Propaganda’"}]

Gray told Cowboy State Daily on Monday that the “information” in the poll included “different points on our records.”

Later when confronted with the screenshots, Gray didn’t outright confirm the content, but he said that the initial ballot test — from which he scored 21% 

 from the 400-person hypothetical election the poll posits — was given “before any prompts.”

“The initial ballot test is the key,” he said. “This is the standard in all polling.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Oakley called it propaganda.  "}]

“I think the technical term is called push polling,” she said. “It’s just done for propaganda and for campaign reasons.”

In the prompts, said Oakley, “they clearly were just writing things that were inflammatory.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Too Early Anyway"}]

Rob Wallace, a longtime Wyoming politico, cast skepticism on a poll conducted so early in the race even before the screenshots with the bizarre prompts surfaced.

Wallace served as assistant secretary to the U.S. Department of the Interior during the first Trump administration and years prior worked multiple political campaigns as an advisor for the late U.S. Sen. Malcolm Wallop. 

He also ran for Congress in 1994 and finished second in a crowded primary to Rep. Barbara Cubin.

“Polling this early in the campaign is like endorsements,” he said. “It’s good to have favorable information, but the real part of the race isn’t going to get going until probably after the Fourth of July.”

The filing period for candidates ended Friday, and the primary election is Aug. 18.

Wallace also hesitated to attach significance to the poll since the “information" the Fabrizio team gave voters was unknown.

“Without really understanding all the pieces of the poll, it’s hard to give a complete assessment of what it means,” he said.

Now that the filing period has ended, the other nine candidates in the Republican U.S. House primary race are going to burst into public view as much as they can, Wallace said.

Between the poll and the filing deadline, two more candidates registered: Keith Goodenough and Richard Dodson.

[{"type":"text","text":"That puts the primary race at 10 contenders."}]

Whoever wins that race will have to face the Democratic candidate, plus the Libertarian nominee Shawn Johnson, who 

“There are a couple reasons for putting a favorable poll out” at this phase, said Wallace. One reason could be to dissuade others from running; and another could be to reassure one’s base and supporters.

“It’s like a good-news story for the people you want to attract,” he added.

[{"type":"text","text":"The big unknown, said Wallace, is what Trump will do."}]

The president has endorsed Megan Degenfelder for governor over her GOP opponents.

[{"type":"text","text":"He has not endorsed anyone in the crowded U.S. House primary race."}]

Friess, Rasner, Gray, Balow, and Biteman all have dispatched messaging indicating alignment with Trump.

[{"type":"text","text":"Rasner and Gray tout themselves as MAGA-style candidates."}]

Biteman has for years had a collaborative relationship with the president, he’s told Cowboy State Daily prior.

Christensen is a strong outlier there: he condemned the president’s April social media post of an AI-generated image depicting Trump as a Jesus-like figure, healing an ailing man while others circle him in gestures of prayer.

A Trump endorsement, said Wallace, “could be a game-changer if he decides to do it. And maybe he won’t — maybe he won’t endorse anybody.”

Chuck gray 6 1 26

<title>Chuck Gray’s U.S. House Poll Leveled Disparaging Remarks Against Rasner, Friess | Cowboy State Daily</title>

The poll U.S. House candidate Chuck Gray touted Monday leveled disparaging claims about opponents Reid Rasner and Steve Friess. It claimed Friess "never had a real job" and Rasner acted like a "Hollywood celebrity" during a marriage to "his gay husband."
 

Chuck Gray’s U.S. House Poll Leveled Disparaging Remarks Against Rasner, Friess

Julie Mankin

Crime & Courts

A Wyoming barrel racer was stunned to learn that the 17-year-old girl accused of stabbing three horses during a major rodeo event in Las Vegas over the weekend was the same rider who tried to borrow one of her horses.

“About a month ago, I got a message from a girl asking if I had a horse she could run,” said Lora Nichols of Pavillion. “I said no, and she kept asking about each of my specific horses. 

“This weekend I looked to see if it was the same girl they arrested. It was! It makes my skin crawl to realize she was stalking my horses, too. It could have been me just as easily.”

Nichols, who has earned more than $400,000 competing on the half-brother brother of one of the stabbed horses, said she’s especially horrified by the attack.

Along with Nichols, Wyoming’s rodeo community is shocked and appalled by the Tonya Harding-like violent rampage that left the three barrel racing horses stabbed multiple times.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"What Happened"}]

Las Vegas police report that the 17-year-old barrel racer was arrested in connection the attack on the horses of competitors.

The girl is accused of stabbing each of the horses multiple times inside their stalls during 

the NBHA Professional’s Choice Vegas Super Show at the South Point Equestrian Center.

The attack came just hours after one of the horses — a 6-year-old gelding named Saaul Good — had carried 20-year-old Hailey Krahenbuhl to a first-place paycheck of $1,805. 

The horse, which Krahenbuhl calls “Sully,” has shattered arena records this season and racked up $238,388 in earnings in less than four years competing. 

“Sully was stabbed multiple times last night,” Krahenbuhl posted to her Facebook page on Saturday. “I have no words. He is stitched up and in recovery.” 

The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department reports that officers received a report at around 2:07 a.m. Saturday that a horse had been injured inside a South Point barn. 

When officers arrived, they learned three horses had been “intentionally injured with a sharp object” believed to be a knife, police say.

Veterinarians reportedly cleaned and sutured deep blade lacerations to Sully’s flank and shoulder. 

Another competitor named Keira Weisbart confirmed on social media that her horse, Rocket, was stabbed three times and had other “stab attempts around his body.” 

That horse was reportedly treated and released at the scene.

A third stabbed horse, however, underwent emergency surgery to repair muscle tissue damage. 

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Detail’s Ordeal"}]

Southern California barrel racer Arielle Phillips owns that third horse, a mare she calls Detail was stabbed multiple times.

, Phillips described the arrested teen as “a crazy obsessed stalker who has been following me on social media for a long time, obsessing over Detail, obsessing over meeting me.”

Phillips said she’d arrived back at the South Point barn to find the suspect hosing off Detail’s wounds.

“Cameras verified her entering our stalls,” wrote Phillips. “I can’t even put into words the pain I feel for my mare and for Hailey’s Sully.”

She said the attack has also affected her horse.

“Detail is traumatized,” Phillips wrote. “Every time she runs away from the approach of my hand, I burst into tears. This is my best friend. An innocent sweet horse was brutally tortured for no reason.”

While all three horses are expected to recover, they are sidelined for the near future and aren’t able to compete.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Champion Lineage"}]

Krahenbuhl, the daughter of a Las Vegas landscaper who grew up about 15 minutes from The Strip, had plans to hit the rodeo road with Sully — whose sire Winner’s Version has produced earners of more than $7 million — and make an NFR run in 2027. 

“We were a match from the beginning and my dreams became reality, all thanks to him,” she wrote prior to the attack from Globe Life Field during the $3 million American Rodeo. 

 to help with at veterinary for all three of the horses.

Nichols said she knows those other girls and is heartbroken for them and their horses.

“I’ve competed alongside Hailey a lot, and she’s an amazing human being,” said Nichols. “I think of the raw emotion and just the blood, sweat and tears she’s put in ­— you know, how hard she’s worked to get there. 

“When I heard it was her horse, I was just sick to my stomach.”

According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, detectives located the suspect at a nearby hotel and took her into custody.

“She was transported to Clark County Juvenile Hall, where she was booked on 12 counts of willful or malicious killing, maiming or torturing of an animal and three counts of felony malicious destruction of private property over $5,000,” investigators told KTLA 5 Morning News.

Because of her age, official law enforcement sources have not identified the suspected publicly.

Veteran barrel racers have over the years heard rare rumors of winning horses being poisoned, but a brazen rash of stabbings is a first. 

Nichols said the incident makes her think of a made-for-TV movie in which the stalker ends up booked for murder. 

She’s also grateful the suspect wasn’t targeting the girls themselves.

“I just think we’re sheltered from that so much in our world,” added barrel racer and Gillette College rodeo coach racer Casey Rae Sellers. “The youth in our industry are pretty dang good kids. This is so out-of-character for the Western industry.”

Horses stabbed Krahenbuhl and Sully at The American 6 1 26

<title>Wyoming Barrel Racer Says She Was Approached By Alleged Horse-Stabber | Cowboy State Daily</title>

A Wyoming barrel racer was stunned to learn that the teen girl accused of stabbing three horses in Las Vegas over the weekend tried to borrow one of her horses last month. “It makes my skin crawl to realize she was stalking my horses, too,” she said.

Wyoming Barrel Racer Says She Was Approached By Alleged Horse-Stabber

This year's election climate could make the perfect storm for Libertarian candidate Shawn Johnson to win Wyoming's U.S. House seat, politicos say. That is, if he courts conservatives, and if the winner of the crowded GOP primary is hugely unpopular. 

Johnson, a Thermopolis-based attorney, two-term Casper City Councilman, and former combat medic earned the Wyoming Libertarian Party’s 

 to run for U.S. House, and is slated to appear on the general election ballot Nov. 3.

He’ll face the lone survivor of a hotly contested 10-person GOP primary contest, and the winner of a two-way Democratic primary election. Both major party primary elections are set for Aug. 18. 

“Of course it all depends on who comes out of the Republican primary,” said Tim Stubson, who served in the Wyoming House for nine years and ascended to two leadership positions as speaker pro tempore and majority whip. 

“But there are some candidates in the Republican primary with substantial negatives that could win. I think it could be a real contest going into the general.”

Stubson also campaigned in a fraught, nine-candidate race for the 2016 Republican nomination for U.S. House, which former Rep. Liz Cheney ultimately won.

This year, the winner of the 10-way GOP primary election could secure the “R” nomination with a mere 10.01 percent of the vote.

, however, that leaves 91,967 people willing to vote against him or her, based on the past 10 years’ election averages in Wyoming.

That figure translates to 39.2 percent of the general election turnout – more than enough for a third-party candidate to win a three-way race. 

If one assumes, however, that half the Republicans who were willing to vote against primary winner will swallow their disaffection and vote for him or her in the general election, then that gives the GOP nominee a solid 70,431 votes going into the general, and just 45,983 primary-election voters eager to vote against him or her.

[{"type":"text","text":"But the general election has nearly twice the turnout of the primary."}]

If one applies the same standard and assumes that half of the Republican-voting Wyomingites who skipped the primary but participated in the general will vote against the GOP nominee, then that buoys the “against” vote by 66,452.

That means a third-party candidate could capture 112,435 votes. The figure represents 47.9 percent of the general election turnout, based on the last decade’s averages.

“And that assumes that all of the Democrats stay home,” said Stubson. “I’m not sure that’s a safe assumption.”

This is especially true, Stubson added, if Secretary of State Chuck Gray wins the primary election. 

Gray has immense name recognition, but has also been involved in numerous controversies throughout his tenure. 

about-face on a widely publicized gravel pit

 project, and a decision to hand Wyoming voters’ identifying information 

“I think if you have a legitimate race – even though the Democrats might not agree with Johnson on many of the issues – Chuck Gray’s negatives are so low that if they (Democrats) think there’s a chance to beat him in the general, you could see (Johnson) peeling off votes from all sorts of people you wouldn’t expect,” he said.

The GOP contenders are Gray, state Senate President Bo Biteman, Teton County philanthropist Steve Friess, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, Casper-based veteran Kevin Christensen, veteran David Giralt, Casper businessman Reid Rasner, former legislator Keith Goodenough, Moran rancher Frank Chapman, and Richard Dodson. 

[{"type":"text","text":"On ‘Wasting’ Votes"}]

 waste their votes on a third-party candidate in the general election.

But the past 10 years’ election data for Wyoming’s general election indicate that, even if a solid half of Republican voters broke ranks to vote for a Libertarian in the U.S. House race, the Democratic candidate is still highly unlikely to win. At least, not without an unprecedented blue shift.

Wyoming voting data in the past decade of U.S. House races has been shifting red, not blue.

The Democratic House candidates from 2016 to 2024 have a maximum vote ceiling of 30.76 percent in the general election – and an average ceiling of 26.6 percent.

Republican House candidates in that same timeframe have won an average 67 percent of the vote and a maximum of 70.6 percent.

That’s more than two thirds, meaning, splitting the vote across two candidates with conservative appeal is unlikely to yield a Democrat win, the data indicate.

[{"type":"text","text":"That’s even true for the election year of 2016."}]

The Republican candidate scored 62 percent of the vote that year, which is less than the two-thirds threshold. But the Democratic candidate only won 29.9 percent in that race, so, still not enough to win by unity alone, had a Libertarian split the GOP vote.  

[{"type":"text","text":"Minor-party candidates earned a collective 7.7 percent in that election."}]

Gail Symons, an analyst of state voting data and Cowboy State Daily political columnist, said the numbers show a path for Johnson.

[{"type":"text","text":"“It’s a dark horse. But it’s a possibility,” she added."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"The rest depends on how well he courts conservative voters, she said."}]

“If he starts getting his name out there and is seen as rational Wyoming, like a real Wyoming person – because the Libertarian Party nationally is kinda whacko,” said Symons with a laugh. “But if he presents himself as a Libertarian with conservative leanings, and pulls into the areas that traditional, neighbor-type Republicans have gone for, I think he could pull it.”

The Wyoming Republican Party is fractured, between the more outcome-oriented, socially-conservative Freedom Caucus wing and the more process-oriented conservatives who often voice dislike toward meddling with local governments. 

This could make the GOP ripe for third-party capture, both Symons and Stubson said.

The Freedom Caucus-aligned wing of the party is in accord generally with President Donald Trump. Wyoming ventured a higher concentration of Trump votes than any other state in the past two elections. The president is pro-energy, which is a huge draw in the fossil fuels-mining state.

But Wyomingites also resist federal overreach and “really want to not have DC crammed down our throats,” Symons said.

Stubson said Johnson will need to amass monetary backing and name recognition – quickly. 

[{"type":"text","text":"Respect The ‘R’"}]

Rod Miller, longtime political columnist and former congressional candidate, said he doubts Johnson can pull it off.

“All those stats are right,” said Miller. “But that does not mean a third-party candidate, Libertarian or Constitution or Independent, will win the general election.”

It’s not that Republicans are loyal to the “R.” It’s that they’re complacent about it, he said.

If Johnson wants any hope of winning, he’ll have to “really blossom and pop out,” said Miller.

“I don’t think any of these people are capable of doing that. I just don’t,” he added.

Still, said Miller, for Johnson to wage a battle, he’ll have to capitalize on some voters’ disfavor toward the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, he’ll have to show charisma, and courage, and “enough balls” to take a firm stand against the Freedom Caucus wing of the party. 

[{"type":"text","text":"This Time, Says Bru"}]

The Libertarian candidates in those five general elections netted an average 3.35 percent of the vote.

From 2018 to 2024, the Libertarian House candidate was Richard “Bru” Brubaker, of Riverton.

Brubaker told the Libertarian convention on Sunday that he’s not interested in running this year.

He told Cowboy State Daily, “We’ve got a legitimate candidate this time.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Stubson agrees."}]

“(Johnson) has held elected office before,” said Stubson. “And he is a legitimate candidate.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Are Major Parties Going Fringe? "}]

Wyoming Libertarian Party Chair Zachary Padilla theorized that the political scene has reached a point at which the major parties have headed off the rails, and the Libertarian ethic now represents the reasonable approach.

Padilla gave Cowboy State Daily a phone interview Monday on his own behalf, not speaking for the party.

“He has the most sound logic,” said Padilla of Johnson. “The best ability to project the right message, you know, freedom; individual freedom, limited government, fiscal responsibility. He can articulate that in a way that I think will resonate with most Wyomingites.”

On the party’s behalf, Padilla said, “The American political system is rigged against the American people. They are forced to pick between two parties who are two sides of the same coin.

“In the past people haven’t voted Libertarian because the Republican Party lied to them about being fiscally conservative and limited government.”  

[{"type":"text","text":"In his own interview Monday, Johnson said he’s in it to win."}]

His goal is to vault into public view,” so people know there’s a viable alternative to the Republican, and the Libertarian vote is not a wasted vote. And that I am a viable candidate,” he said.

“I don’t back down from a challenge,” said Johnson. “When I’m fighting for something, I’m going to go until the bloody end.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Buckle Up: More Numbers"}]

From 2016-2024, the average primary election turnout for the U.S. House race was 131,946 – or 58.5 percent of the general election turnout.

So, the general election is nearly double the size of the primary election.

The year 2022 skews that data. Its primary election tally for that race was 92 percent of the general election total.

That was the year now-U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman challenged then-Rep. Liz Cheney in the Republican primary and won.

In that same timeframe, Republicans have gained ground, winning a near-steady climb in U.S. House races from 62 percent of the vote in 2016 to 70.6 percent of it in 2024.

Never in that timeframe did the primary election ballot feature 10 Republicans for U.S. House.

But it came close in 2016, when Cheney beat eight contenders for the nomination with 35,043 votes – or 39.7 percent of the total.

[{"type":"text","text":"In This Simulation"}]

In the five past general elections, the GOP landed an average of 67 percent of the U.S. House vote. 

Splitting that average in half between an imaginary Republican and an imaginary Libertarian gives each candidate 33.5 percent - which puts each of them still 3.5 points above the Democratic candidates’ highest tally and 7 points above the Democrats’ average tally.

If the Libertarian candidate in this scenario won that half plus the historic Libertarian average of 3.35 percent, he would win 36.87 percent. Again, well over the one-third threshold for a three-way race victory. 

It’s unclear what could happen to the Constitution Party’s average tally of 2.3 percent. That isn’t factored into this simulation. 

The Libertarian Party gained a seat in Congress when Rep. Justin Amash changed party in 2020. That same year, the town of Green River sent the Wyoming Legislature its first Libertarian delegate, Marshall Burt. 

[{"type":"text","text":"Burt served one term. "}]

In the central-Wyoming town of Riverton, Libertarian candidate Bethany Baldes came within about 50 and about 30 votes of beating her Republican opponents in 2018 and 2020, respectively. 

[{"type":"text","text":"Who Is Johnson?"}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Johnson is a Wyoming native, formerly of Casper and now of Thermopolis."}]

He was an Army combat medic for 21 years and was deployed to Iraq in 2003-2004. He served as a Natrona County Sheriff’s jail deputy for 13 years, and a Casper city councilman for two terms including one year as vice-mayor in 2019.

This year's election climate could make the perfect storm for Libertarian Shawn Johnson to win Wyoming's U.S. House seat, politicos say. That is, if he courts conservatives, and if the winner of the crowded GOP primary is hugely unpopular. 

One More For The Road: Tuesday, February 11, 2025

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