One More For The Road

A. That is some impressive air they attained. B. What is with that tire???

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"NOTE: No one was injured...."}]

One more for 10 7 24

Cowboy State Daily is Wyoming’s largest newspaper with Wyoming’s most experienced journalists. 

<title>One More For The Road: Monday, October 7, 2024 | Cowboy State Daily</title>

One More For The Road: Monday, October 7, 2024

 A. That is some impressive air they attained. B. What is with that tire??? NOTE: No one was injured....

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's Feature Reporter, Andrew Rossi.

Andrew Rossi

Wyoming Life

 on Saturday. Its prognosis for Wyoming and the Rocky Mountain region is “cold, snowy at times, and breezy.”

Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day is aware of this and other long-range forecasts coming out for the upcoming winter. He's not buying what anyone's selling.

“I'm not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time,” Day said. “The Farmer’s Almanac does what the Farmer’s Almanac does. The National Weather Service will do what they do, and people on social media can post every computer model that they want, but I’m not going there yet.”

With a Super El Niño on the horizon after several consecutive historically dry months, Day was willing to discuss the broad trends that could impact Wyoming this winter. As for the specifics, there’s such a thing as being too early.

Day's message: trust these at your peril, especially when it’s still summer.

“Last year was a good example of getting too far ahead of your scheme, but it's so easy,” he said. “I’ve learned the hard way, so I’m not seeing expectations when we’re still in August.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Super, But How Super?"}]

The “biggest player” this winter, according to Day, will be 

the much-anticipated “Super” El Niño

. Weather patterns and water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which have been 

, are manifesting as one of the most intense El Niños in recent years.

“We're definitely going to have this very strong El Niño,” Day said. “It's going to be the dominant factor this winter, but it's not the only one.”

Many long-range forecasts circulating are relying on historical data from past El Niños to provide an outlook for how it will impact global weather.

Day is a huge proponent of using historical data, but there might not be a historical precedent for what’s coming. A strong El Niño can be great for Wyoming or miss it entirely.

“The El Niño can be so strong it shifts the storm track to our south,” he said. “The enhanced rain and snow you can get in the winter can bypass Wyoming. It can just miss.”

In other years, a strong El Niño has tracked farther north, inundating parts of Wyoming with precipitation.

A strong El Niño is a given this winter. At this point, its trajectory could take it either way, which is why Day isn’t giving into the pressure to release a long-range forecast.

“The north-south extent of the El Niño signal is a real concern I have,” Day said. “It's really too early to glob onto and go all-in on either a model-driven forecast or what we would call an analog forecast of looking at El Niños from the past.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Hangover"}]

The top reason to be skeptical of any long-range winter forecasts for this winter is the lessons still to be learned 

Day acknowledged how his long-range forecast for the 2025-2026 winter season, released in August 2025, was radically different from the winter Wyoming got. That stung, but his misery had good company.

“That’s the cautionary tale,” he said. “We had 90 blocking patterns this winter. Nobody anticipated that, and no models predicted it. Simply put, our models fail.”

Those “blocking patterns” were stubborn ridges of high pressure that essentially 

 from reaching Wyoming and siphoned it elsewhere. That’s why it was historically dry in the western U.S. and historically cold and snowy in the eastern U.S.

By November 2025, it was clear that the colder, snowier winter forecasted wasn’t going to plan. Nearly every month since then has been 

“This summer was a hangover from last winter, especially through July,” Day said. “Last winter, all our weather went north. A really strong El Niño can direct all the storms south. That is a concern.”

El Niño isn’t known for having frequent blocking patterns. Instead, it tends to have one blocking pattern that can last for several months without let-up.

According to Day, very persistent, stubborn blocking patterns are “a concern” with the incoming El Niño. Where those patterns could set up, and how it would impact the winter, remain to be seen.

That’s one area where Day had a sliver of confidence when looking ahead. Historically, the enduring block patterns have favored Wyoming.

“You can have a semi-permanent high-pressure system over central Canada that migrates back and forth,” he said. “El Niño patterns can lock in between December and February, which is a concern, but it's not in the Pacific, which was our problem last year.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Who’s On The Bench?"}]

For Day, putting out a long-range forecast for the 2026-2027 winter season would be like betting on the winner of a barely started chess game. The game’s afoot, and there’s no way to confidently say what the winning move will be.

However, Day can look at the board and see which pieces are and aren’t in play. Many of the factors that came together to make last winter so warm and dry aren’t a factor now.

“What we can say about the upcoming winter is that it does not look like we have all of the big players that we had last winter,” he said.

The 2025-2026 winter season started with a weak La Niña. Since the Super El Niño is already manifesting, La Niña won’t be a factor going forward.

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a cyclical pattern of wind directions in the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere. It has enormous impacts on global weather.

According to Day, the QBO was in “an easterly phase” last year. This year, winter will begin when the QBO is in its opposite, westerly phase.

Then there are the North and South Poles, which are already colder than they were at this point last year.

Several elements that affect long-range weather and seasonal forecasting are different this year. How it all plays out with a strong El Niño remains uncertain.

“El Nino is going to be the quarterback and head coach this winter, bar none,” Day said. “There are other players involved, but that's why we've got to understand these players and those that aren't going to come off the bench until a little bit later on.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Given"}]

Historically, El Niño has been favorable for Wyoming’s winter, bringing colder temperatures and precipitation. That’s a possible scenario for this winter, but there are no guarantees.

That’s another reason Day doesn’t want to make people more optimistic or pessimistic than they need to, especially in August. Many people who are seeking salvation from a strong El Niño might not get it.

“If you take a critical look at El Niños in Wyoming, it’s extremely rare that the entire state benefits from it,” he said. “If we do get into stubborn holding patterns, El Niños can be feast or famine, and Wyoming is a big state.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"No Voodoo That You Do So Well"}]

As Day was discussing his concerns about long-range winter forecasts in August, he didn’t even consider what the Farmer’s Almanac was forecasting.

“I'm not going to include the Farmer’s Almanac,” he said. “They're either taking models verbatim, or they're taking El Niños that have occurred in the past. These approaches aren't necessarily wrong, but I don't think that's the right way to approach the winter forecast when we're still on the backside of summer.”

Day’s hoping to have his winter forecast ready by mid-September, when the impacts of the Super El Niño are starting to roll in. It’s going to be so critical that its impact shouldn’t be anticipated so soon.

“A lot of things that are going to drive this winter, in addition to El Niño, aren't going to really start showing themselves until we get deeper into fall,” he said. “I am not going to go there yet. I’m not setting expectations. We need to be patient.”

Day’s word of caution to Wyomingites was to be extremely skeptical of any long-range winter forecast they might see for the next month or so. Any person or agency that’s confident in their forecast, in his opinion, doesn’t have enough critical information to be credible.

“The problem with doing long-range weather forecasts is that weather is so dynamic,” he said. “If you make a graphic that's good for three or four months, and subtle things change, then you have to throw it out the window. That’s why we have to be careful.”

That goes double for the Farmer’s Almanac. While it still has its uses in the 21st Century, long-range weather forecasts aren’t one of them.

“I don't know what voodoo magic they use to get their forecasts,” he said. “I don't think we should be talking about any detailed winter forecast till maybe mid to late September. Until then, it’s not helpful for anybody.”

Don day winter 8 11 26

<title>Meteorologist Don Day Calls New Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast 'Voodoo Magic' | Cowboy State Daily</title>

The Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter forecast, and Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day calls it "voodoo magic." However, he does believe a very strong El Niño is on the way but he's "not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time."

Meteorologist Don Day Calls New Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast 'Voodoo Magic'

Employee kate meadows cropped

Kate Meadows

Around Wyoming

A 34-acre parcel of land donated to Sublette County more than a decade ago to benefit 4-H, FFA and youth agricultural education has become the center of a bitter dispute between two organizations that both work with local children.

MESA Equine Assisted Services, a Sublette County nonprofit that provides adaptive horseback riding for children with physical and mental limitations, wants to lease part of the county-owned property to establish a permanent home for its growing program.

Sublette County 4-H opposes the proposal, arguing that allowing MESA exclusive use of a significant portion of the property — including space to house horses long-term — would conflict with the donor’s intended purpose and could limit 4-H’s future use.

According to Director Carla Seely, MESA is seeking a permanent facility to keep and increase its number of horses before it can serve more children. The county-owned parcel was a fitting place to look, she said, because MESA supports youth and agriculture through equine therapy. She also contended that 4-H uses only a portion of the 34 acres, while a portion of the donated land remains vacant.

4-H says it needs to preserve the entire property so it can eventually develop the agricultural programs for which the land was donated.

[{"type":"text","text":"Both organizations say they are committed to helping local youth."}]

But they have been unable to agree on how — or whether — they can share the same ground.

“We’re really trying to be proactive,” Seely told Cowboy State Daily. “We want to do some succession planning (and) make sure MESA is as successful as possible.”

According to a Sublette County 4-H memorandum of justification viewed by Cowboy State Daily, “Sublette County 4-H has no workable path forward for a lease arrangement that can accommodate both programs while allowing each to effectively carry out its very different missions.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Land"}]

The property was donated to Sublette County by QEP Resources more than a decade ago. QEP, which played a major role in Sublette County’s natural gas development, donated the land specifically to support 4-H, FFA and youth agricultural education.

The donation was secured by Robin Schamber, who was then director of Sublette County 4-H. She is now running for Sublette County commissioner.

[{"type":"text","text":"Schamber told Cowboy State Daily the story hurts kids."}]

“I don’t see a great path forward, as ugly as it’s gotten,” she said.

QEP sold its Sublette County assets to Pinedale Energy Partners in 2017. Those assets were later integrated into PureWest Energy.

MESA eventually began looking at the property as a possible home for its program.

The nonprofit first contacted PureWest to ask whether its proposed use would be consistent with the deed restrictions attached to the land.

PureWest initially indicated it believed MESA's use would be permissible, Seely said, although the final decision would rest with the county commissioners.

According to a letter from PureWest’s general counsel included in public records, however, that position was later clarified.

PureWest's non-objection was based on the assumption that MESA’s presence would not materially interfere with or limit 4-H’s use of the property, the letter said.

[{"type":"text","text":"MESA then approached the Sublette County commissioners."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Commissioners voted 4-1 to allow MESA to use the property."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"But 4-H objected."}]

According to a memorandum of justification, Sublette County 4-H first learned of MESA’s request during a county commissioners meeting, when a 4-H representative happened to be participating online.

The memorandum says the property was not specifically identified during the initial discussion, meaning 4-H leadership did not immediately realize the significance of the proposal.

“A process that begins with this degree of exclusion and lack of transparency does not inspire confidence that the interests of the program this property was donated to serve are being adequately considered,” the memorandum states.

Seely said she believes the anger stemmed in part from MESA approaching county officials before approaching 4-H.

The memorandum of justification acknowledges that initial discussions about the possible lease occurred between county leadership and MESA's executive director without 4-H's knowledge or involvement.

“We had no intentions of upsetting 4-H in any way,” Seely told Cowboy State Daily.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Trying To Find Common Ground"}]

[{"type":"text","text":"The dispute eventually moved into an effort to find a compromise."}]

This spring, Seely met with staff at the Sublette County 4-H Extension Office to hear their questions and concerns about MESA's proposed use of the property. The meeting was facilitated by Lucy Pauley, program coordinator for the Wyoming Department of Agriculture’s Mediation Program.

Sublette County currently does not have a 4-H director. Mary Martin, a Teton County community development extension educator, has served as a spokesperson. She did not respond to Cowboy State Daily requests for comment.

After the meeting, county commissioners directed MESA and 4-H to form a working group to review the proposed lease and develop an operating agreement that could allow both organizations to use the property.

Commission Chairman Lynn Bernard said commissioners hoped the groups could find a way to work together.

“We wanted a good-neighbor policy,” Bernard said, explaining that commissioners wanted to see whether the organizations could develop a working arrangement that would accommodate both programs.

In April, MESA provided 4-H with a draft lease and invited the organization to suggest changes.

According to public documents, 4-H did not propose changes or provide feedback.

Three days later, Seely received an email from Martin saying the 4-H members of the working group had canceled the next scheduled meeting.

Later that day, the working group received documents reflecting a unanimous decision by the 4-H Council to reject any possibility of MESA operating on the property.

Those documents included a cover letter and the memorandum of justification.

In its letter, 4-H acknowledged MESA's role in the community and the two organizations' shared purpose.

“Sublette County 4-H appreciates the important role MESA Therapeutic Horsemanship Program plays in serving youth in our community,” the letter states.

The organizations also share “a common commitment to supporting young people,” according to the letter.

But 4-H concluded that the donated property was not the appropriate location for MESA.

“We respectfully, but firmly decline, the proposed lease to MESA and intend to preserve this property in full for its intended purpose: the benefit of Sublette County’s 4-H, FFA, and youth agricultural programs,” the memorandum states.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"MESA Needs A Home"}]

MESA was established in 2012 as a nonprofit providing adaptive horseback riding to children with physical and mental limitations.

The organization currently serves roughly 18 to 20 children, ages 4 and up, depending on the season.

“There’s a huge need in our community to have services for kids with limitations and disabilities,” Seely said.

MESA has operated as a mobile organization since its founding, relying on private landowners who have allowed its instructors, students and horses to use their property.

“We’ve been a mobile organization working out of a horse trailer since we started,” Seely said.

That arrangement has allowed MESA to operate, but it has also placed a ceiling on its growth.

The organization cannot add more horses — and therefore more students — without a permanent place to keep them.

“We are trying to secure a more permanent facility for use to continue our programming,” Seely said. “There’s a lot of programming we want to do, but we aren’t able to do it.”

MESA is at capacity and is not actively advertising to attract more clients because it does not have the space or horses to accommodate them, Seely said.

“We certainly can’t try to grow right now,” Seely said. “We are not promoting growth until we have the horses and the capacity to do it.”

Seely said the county property appeared to offer an opportunity to solve that problem.

A portion of that property has sat vacant for years, she said. That’s the portion MESA was eyeing.

“It’s just a sagebrush flat and hasn’t been used since the donation of the land to the county,” she said. “4-H doesn’t use it. It’s just been vacant.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"4-H Sees A Future For The Property"}]

Bernard acknowledged that only part of the property is being used by 4-H, but he said the organization has plans for the remainder.

A letter from Martin to the county commissioners similarly said 4-H volunteers and community members had recently begun planning efforts to make fuller use of the property.

“Maintaining flexibility at this stage will help ensure the property can be developed in a way that reflects its intended purpose and evolving community needs,” the letter states.

[{"type":"text","text":"That is a central disagreement between the two organizations."}]

To MESA, the unused portion of the property represents an opportunity to provide services to children who need them now.

To 4-H, that portions of the property are vacant does not mean they are available for another purpose.

Bernard said commissioners recognized that both organizations provide valuable services.

“Of course we would have liked to have seen use of the property for people who would have been impacted by such an agreement,” he said.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"What Happens Next?"}]

For now, the county commissioners have encouraged MESA to keep looking for another property.

Seely said MESA has also offered 4-H an alternative lease arrangement for consideration, but has not received a response.

Without an agreement from 4-H, Seely said there is no path for MESA to use the donated property.

[{"type":"text","text":"The nonprofit is now looking elsewhere."}]

“We sure have a vision of wanting to do more,” Seely said. “We would love 20 acres. But we would take anywhere from 10 to 20 depending on the ground.”

Bernard said the county remains open to a solution that would allow the property to serve both groups.

“As a county board of commissioners, we would always entertain individuals coming forward with plans that would be acceptable for joint utilization,” he said.

4h battle 8 10 26

<title>Sublette 4-H, Equine Therapy Group Clash Over Sharing 34 Acres Donated To County | Cowboy State Daily</title>

Sublette 4-H, Equine Therapy Group Clash Over Sharing 34 Acres Donated To County

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's general assignment reporter, Clair McFarland.

Clair McFarland

Government & Politics

Politics

Laramie County’s sheriff says the public records lawsuit two Freedom Caucus-aligned Cheyenne residents have filed against him is at least partly a political maneuver – and that his investigation of the February “CheckGate” controversy has “stirred the hornets’ nest.”

Colorado-based firm Lichter Immigration and its investigator Kevin Lewis 

 against Laramie County Sheriff Brian Kozak and his office June 30.

The lawsuit accuses Kozak’s office of wrongly withholding body camera video and information that a Mexican national, Mario Fabian Valenzuela Robles, needed for his ongoing immigration case.

The plaintiffs through their attorney Drake Hill filed a Thursday motion asking Laramie County District Court Judge Robin Cooley to hold Kozak in contempt of court. They allege Kozak’s office hasn’t obeyed Cooley’s order to turn over documents pertaining to Robles.

“The situation presented here creates the potential for the sheriff to face serious legal consequences, including contempt of court charges, as in this motion, fines, or removal from office,” the filing says.

[{"type":"text","text":"Kozak bristled at the filing and cast the case’s motivation as dubious."}]

He told Cowboy State Daily on Friday his office has turned over the body camera video, which he indicated was initially withheld to ensure it could be released according to the narrow provisions allowed in public records law.

As for other documents, Kozak said his counsel, Laramie County Attorney Mark Voss, had already conferred with the plaintiffs and worked out a time extension, since the search terms the plaintiffs requested returned around 7,700 generally irrelevant emails.

[{"type":"text","text":"The documents were originally due Aug. 5, court documents say."}]

“It’s confusing to us why this contempt motion was filed when there was an agreement we could go beyond the deadline date, when the search criteria was so large,” Kozak said Friday.

[{"type":"text","text":"Kozak took a stronger stance in a Saturday email."}]

“It is clear to me that the motive behind the motion and original court filing was, at least in part, to discredit the Sheriff’s Office for political reasons,” he wrote, adding that he hopes Cooley will “take appropriate action” if the plaintiffs’ filings were “misleading or unethical.”

“If the Court does not impose sanctions against the plaintiffs, I will consider filing a complaint with the Wyoming State Bar,” he added.

[{"type":"text","text":"Cooley has set a hearing for Oct. 16."}]

In response to Kozak's statements, Lewis said the sheriff is shifting blame. 

"Rather than trying to blame others, he should focus on doing his work and complying with the Court’s order," said Lewis in a Monday email. 

[{"type":"text","text":"The Presentation"}]

Kozak said several members of the Laramie County Conservative Coalition warned him that would happen, and they gave him a copy of an email notice of a meeting Wyoming Freedom Caucus member Rep. Ann Lucas, R-Cheyenne, dispatched.

Cowboy State Daily asked Kozak to extend the outlet’s interview invitation to the anonymous members. They declined, he said.

The email in question, which Kozak sent to Cowboy State Daily, shows a July 9 letter from Lucas previewing “a very interesting program for this coming Sunday” for the Laramie County Conservative Coalition.

“Cindy Hill and Kevin Lewis will discuss the recently filed lawsuit against Sheriff Brian Kozak,” the email says. The email also recounts details of the case from Cowboy State Daily’s reporting.

Cindy Hill is Drake Hill’s wife. She’s also the former state superintendent of public instruction, whom the Legislature tried, unconstitutionally, to remove from office, and who waged an unsuccessful defamation case against former legislator Tim Stubson.

“These allegations point to issues regarding civil rights,” says the email. “This subject is guaranteed to stimulate conversation. Don’t miss it.”

Cindy Hill did not respond by publication to a Monday-morning request for comment.

Kozak pointed to his decision to launch an investigation into “CheckGate.”

That was the Feb. 9 incident in which Teton County activist Rebecca Bextel, who’s now the Constitution Party nominee in the governor’s race, handed out campaign checks to Freedom Caucus members on the floor of the state House of Representatives – two days before they were set to vote on a bill she’d championed.

Multiple legislators and the entire Wyoming Senate condemned the act, but the House of Representatives cleared its involved members of bribery and misconduct after an in-house investigation.

[{"type":"text","text":"Kozak said his criminal investigation into the matter is still ongoing."}]

“The Sheriff’s Office’s recent search warrants in the CheckGate investigation have clearly stirred the hornets’ nest,” he said in his email. “There also appears to be a connection between Lewis and Hill through their involvement with Honor Wyoming and the Freedom Caucus, some members of which are reportedly subjects of the Checkgate investigation.”

Kozak added, “It is unfortunate to see this type of political activity in Wyoming, especially when I am upholding conservative principals (sic).”

“However,” the sheriff continued, “it will not discourage me from doing my job. I will gladly take the criticism and political pressure if it allows my deputies to perform their duties without political influence.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Lucas in a Monday text message to Cowboy State Daily countered."}]

She wasn’t involved in CheckGate in any capacity and doesn’t see a connection between that investigation and “an education community meeting about immigration law and the Constitution.”

[{"type":"text","text":"“Calling this political isn’t accurate,” added Lucas. "}]

She said at the July 12 meeting in question Lewis walked meeting attendees through the case and the surrounding legal issues. Lucas also said she’s not involved in the legal case and attended the talk only for the education.

[{"type":"text","text":"Here Kozak volleyed back."}]

“Have you ever heard of a (litigant) doing that before – a public meeting on a case they’re representing an immigrant on?” asked the sheriff. “Seems a little weird.”

Lucas had said in her text that the group has invited Kozak to speak and he’s done so twice. He said he’s never gone to one of their events and never been invited.

[{"type":"text","text":"‘That’s A Lie’"}]

Lewis said in a Friday phone interview that the sheriff’s office did not secure an extension for handing over documents.

“That’s a lie, right,” said Lewis. “And Kozak’s counsel set the due date for compliance … So there’s no extension. No request for extension. No communication about extension.”

Lewis emphasized that a judge’s order should be taken seriously and said that Kozak has “simply ignored the deadline of the court order.”

As of Friday, Lewis said, plaintiffs were still waiting on documents from the sheriff’s office.

[{"type":"text","text":"Cowboy State Daily asked if this case has political implications."}]

Laramie County Sheriff Brian Kozak says the lawsuit two Cheyenne politicos are waging against him is at least partly political in nature, and tied to his investigation of the 'CheckGate' controversy. Recent search warrants have "stirred the hornets' nest," he said.

One More For The Road: Monday, October 7, 2024

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