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[{"type":"text","text":"Arguably, the single greatest moment in Yellowstone history."}]

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Cowboy State Daily is Wyoming’s largest newspaper with Wyoming’s most experienced journalists. 

<title>Bonus Video: Tuesday, June 25, 2024 | Cowboy State Daily</title>

Arguably, the single greatest moment in Yellowstone history.

Bonus Video: Tuesday, June 25, 2024

 Arguably, the single greatest moment in Yellowstone history.

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's Feature Reporter, Andrew Rossi.

Andrew Rossi

Wildlife

A bison carcass in Yellowstone National Park attracts the usual crowd of grizzlies, wolves, ravens, and tourists. One recently attracted a pack of bear management staff, who thoroughly dismembered it before carrying the pieces away.

Joseph “Jojo” Kaul, owner of Kaul of The Wild Yellowstone Tours, 

 in the Lamar Valley near Soda Butte Creek on Monday. The female bison, which died of natural causes, was around 220 yards from the road.

“It wasn’t really close, but with the proximity of fly fishermen and hikers, it presented a situation that was possibly chaotic,” Kaul told Cowboy State Daily. “They wanted to know how to speed up the process of this bison being consumed.”

Using three sharp kitchen knives, three men from Yellowstone’s bear management started “quartering” the carcass, according to Kaul.

“They cut off all four of her legs at the joint, and dragged them to four different areas, probably about 100 to 150 yards away from the main carcass,” he said. “Then, they opened up her belly and backside to expose more flesh and blood for the predators to smell.”

Within 30 minutes, the bison had been butchered, and the three bear management men were back at their vehicles.

Kaul described it as “the best-case scenario” under the circumstances, which he explained to the crowd of people watching it unfold.

“There were around 30 people there, and I explained that they were doing everything they could to allow us to enjoy this,” he said. “Instead of completely removing the carcass, they left it so the wildlife watchers and enthusiasts of the park could enjoy it.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Butchering Bison"}]

Carcass management is a critical component of managing Yellowstone's natural landscape. 

 are the go-to tools, but sometimes rangers have to get their hands dirty.

 is familiar with dismembering carcasses in Yellowstone. During his tenure as a Yellowstone ranger, he did it multiple times.

“Most people I worked with didn't like doing it, and I did, so I ended up doing a heck of a lot of it,” Henry told Cowboy State Daily. “I found the physiology and forensics interesting.”

. Every spring, he’d document every bison, elk, and other animals that died over the winter as they began to thaw out of the deep snow.

Usually, the carcasses were left for the grizzlies to devour as they emerged from hibernation. On occasion, Henry and his peers were asked to get hands-on and take carcasses apart.

One instance stands out: In December 1986, Henry single-handedly butchered a bison at Fishing Bridge Junction to an audience of television cameras and Yellowstone’s top staff.

“There was a grizzly bear, Bear 83, that refused to den that year,” he said. “She stayed around Lake Village late into the fall. She chased me when I was on my snowmobile once.”

After Grizzly 83 and her cub were captured and relocated, Henry was given a new assignment: shoot and dismember a bison and scatter the pieces across Pelican Bay.

“The powers that be sent me and another ranger out to shoot a bison,” he said. “We found and shot a bull near Indian Pond and dragged it back to Fishing Bridge.

By then, the grizzly relocation and bison butchering had become a national news story. Several news agencies traveled to Fishing Bridge to see it, as did “a lot of National Park Service big shots,” according to Henry.

“They came from Mammoth to be involved, but when it came time to cut up this bull bison, none of the so-called GS99s wanted to step forward and do the dismemberment. So, it all fell on me.”

Using nothing but his personal five-inch hunting knife, Henry cut up the entire bull. Because that part of the park was closed to traffic at the time, he did it right in the middle of the Fishing Bridge Junction while everyone watched.

After a lot of sweat and blood, Henry had butchered the bison into several smaller pieces. He boarded a helicopter to scatter them across Pelican Bay, so any active grizzlies would head that way rather than wander around Lake Village.

[{"type":"text","text":"“I don't think anything like that would happen nowadays,” Henry said."}]

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Fast Food"}]

Yellowstone personnel try to maintain a “hands off” approach inside the park, letting things play out naturally. On the occasions when they do have to take an active role, there’s usually a good reason.

According to Herny, carcass dismemberment is employed when dead animals are close to tourist hot spots but not easily accessible for the preferred methods of disposal.

“Whenever an animal died in a developed area or on the roadside, we'd have to move it away,” he said. “Sometimes, maintenance people would come out with heavy equipment, pick up the whole carcass with a front-end loader, put it on a truck, and we'd haul it away.”

Front-end loaders and winches are easier and faster, but sometimes they aren’t viable depending on the terrain and location of the carcass. That’s when you cut it up into manageable pieces that you could load onto a pickup truck with muscle power.”

Kaul said the terrain where the female bison died wasn’t ideal for the easier, faster options to be viable. Dismembering the carcass was the only option.

“She died along Soda Butte Creek and Lamar River,” he said of an area commonly known as "The Confluence." “Dragging it out and removing it would be a very, very hard process. It was treacherous for the three gentlemen to walk out there just to get to the carcass. Trying to haul away the 1,000-pound carcass with a pulley system from a winch would be even harder.”

The bear management personnel told Kaul that by dismembering the carcass and scattering the pieces, Yellowstone’s wildlife could utilize the immense resource while speeding up its consumption. That further reduces the risk to visitors.

Usually, carcasses are transported to one of the “secret spots” where they can be safely left to be consumed far from visitors.

“They have certain spots, out of the way of the public, where they like to dump carcasses,” Henry said. “They like to continue dumping carcasses in the same spots so that bears and other scavengers get used to finding meat there.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Still In Service"}]

Henry wasn’t surprised to see Yellowstone rangers dismembering a carcass, but he was curious if they had any prior experience doing so.

“There aren’t many people (in the park) who are good at it anymore,” he said. “Most of today's rangers are more law enforcement–oriented, from urban and suburban backgrounds, than they were in my time. That's not being derogatory about anybody. It's just an observation.”

Kaul said the bear management staff he’s observed are “a well-oiled machine.” Their goal was to get in, get out, and move on as quickly as possible. ‘

“They're usually really efficient, working simultaneously, but it’s still a process,” he said. “Each of those legs weighed 100 to 150 pounds, so dragging those away wasn’t easy. For them.”

Henry enjoyed dismembering carcasses because it was akin to doing an in-field autopsy. By cutting into a dead animal, he could learn more about its life and death.

“I don't want to sound like I'm bragging, but I probably evaluated 1,500 or 2,000 winter kills in my career,” he said. “Cutting them up is a good way to analyze what it was exactly that killed them.”

He specifically mentioned the value of examining bone marrow, as the color of the marrow can reveal whether an animal died of malnutrition.

Kaul has seen multiple instances of on-site carcass dismemberment, which is why he took this opportunity to educate people on why it needed to happen.

“This is not ideal for the National Park Service,” he said. “If the bison was hit by a car and was close to the road, they might be more inclined to pull it. This bison died naturally in a difficult spot, and they wanted to let the wildlife consume it, so they created the best scenario. It’s better than having no access to it.”

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<title>Yellowstone Tourists Watch As Rangers Use Kitchen Knives To Dismember Bison | Cowboy State Daily</title>

A crowd gathered in Yellowstone's Lamar Valley on Monday as three rangers used kitchen knives to dismember a bison carcass. "They opened up her belly and backside to expose more flesh and blood for the predators to smell," one tour guide said.

Yellowstone Tourists Watch As Rangers Use Kitchen Knives To Dismember Bison

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's business and tourism reporter, Renée Jean

Renée Jean

Around Wyoming

Growing up, Texan James Neeley had never heard of mountain man Jim Baker, who was a frontier scout, trapper and early non-Native settler with ties to both Colorado and Wyoming when the West was young.

A sister’s genealogy search changed all that a couple decades ago. On Saturday, he was among a handful of Baker descendants who gathered for a photo commemorating the Little Snake River Museum’s work to preserve the cabin Baker built when he settled in present-day Savery in 1873.

Members of HistoriCorps and other volunteers in the Savery area spent last summer hand-hewing cottonwood logs to replace water-damaged logs at the cabin. The work is not finished, Little Snake River Museum Director Lela Emmons told Cowboy State Daily. 

Efforts are already underway to raise additional funds to keep the restoration going, and to source more of the huge cottonwood logs 

“There’s still another 10 or 12 logs we need to replace,” she said. “Getting those logs is the hardest part of the whole thing.”

Large cottonwood logs aren’t simply available at Home Depot or some other lumberyard.

“We have to find the right cottonwoods, get them milled,” she said. “And they’re so heavy, you can’t just lift them up. You have to hire a guy with a big backhoe or something who can lift them.”

It’s a fuel-intensive process, Emmons added, which means the logs must be sourced as near to the museum as possible.

Once they have the right logs, they’ll also need to bring HistoriCorps back to do the work, which will cost around $40,000 for another two-week stint.

Emmons said she hopes to identify grant funding to help with that.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"textStyle"},{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Best Shot In The West"}]

Neeley drove from Texas with his wife, Sandra, just to learn more about his ancestor and see the cabin where Baker once lived.

“I would be a first cousin, three times removed,” Neeley told Cowboy State Daily. “So, there’s a lot of people here who know more about him than I do.”

The work done on the cabin, which is a rare surviving structure from the mountain man era, is “wonderful,” he said. 

“It’s an important part of history and, of course, if it deteriorates, nobody can enjoy it,” Neeley said. “So it’s really nice that they have done this. A lot of people, at least in our part of the world, are not familiar with Jim Baker. They’ve heard of Jim Bridger, people like that … but (Baker) was an important character, too.”

Kit Carson, in fact, has been quoted in newspaper articles of the time saying Baker was the “best shot in the West,” next to himself, of course. When Carson sent invitations to 18 mountain men for what would be their last trapping event together in 1851, Baker was on that list. 

Bridger, when he was looking for an elite scout to help him at Fort Phil Kearney, hired Baker. Baker was also one of the scouts for Gen. John Charles Fremont’s third expedition to explore and map the American West alongside Carson, and he was part of the 1841 Bartleson-Bidwell Party, among the earliest wagon parties bound for California.

Baker’s contemporaries certainly thought he was important. But unlike them, Baker was not interested in publicity, biographer Leighton Baker wrote in his book, “The Red-Headed Shoshoni.” 

Baker loved the mountains and hated the spotlight. So, when Ned Buntline suggested writing a biography about him, Baker flat out refused. 

He did not care if the world forgot who he was.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"textStyle"},{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Too Many People"}]

In fact, when Denver became too populous for his tastes, he packed up and in 1873 moved to Savery, where he built a two-story cabin with a third-story tower as his home. The tower, dismantled in 1881, was so he could climb high and see far — just in case any of the American Indian tribes who disliked him decided to come to call. 

Baker is thought to be one of the first non-Native settlers in Denver. He was later honored with a stained-glass likeness at the state Capitol, and he became one of the first settlers of the Little Snake River Valley. 

The cabin itself has lived several lives. 

Baker first built it from massive cottonwood logs felled by himself and some of his children along the Little Snake River. They squared the timbers by hand with broad axes and not much else.

After Baker’s death in 1898, there was a tussle between Wyoming, Colorado, and Savery over who would keep the cabin. 

Wyoming won the first round of that battle, and Baker’s cabin was displayed in Frontier Park in Cheyenne for 60-some years starting in 1917. Then, one year, the cabin was disassembled and stored, never to return as a display at Frontier Park. 

Savery still wanted Baker’s cabin though, and was eventually successful in convincing the state to send it back home to the Little Snake River Valley in 1976.

When it arrived, it was like a giant pile of scattered Lincoln logs, with few numbers explaining how the cabin had been put together. 

Original photos of the cabin and miniature models of the logs were used to figure out just how to reassemble the cabin in its present location, a mile from where Baker had originally built it.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"textStyle"},{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Fight Is On"}]

Three decades before Baker built his fortified cottonwood cabin near Savery, he’d already helped make the surrounding landscape part of Wyoming history.

In 1841, near the Little Snake River Valley, Baker was among trappers who survived the fight that gave Battle Mountain its name. 

The conflict also became associated with Battle Creek, Battle Pass, and Battle Highway — place names that still mark the country where Baker later chose to make his home.

The battle is one of the most stunning tales of the mountain man era.

That summer, Baker had been trapping in the Green River country. Bridger decided to send the young scout to warn French-Canadian trader Henry Fraeb, who was building a trading post somewhere near the confluence of Battle Creek and the Little Snake River, that large war parties of Sioux, Cheyenne and Arapaho were gathering in the region.

Bridger wanted Fraeb to abandon his exposed trading post and come back to Bridger’s camp along Henry’s Fork of the Green River, where he and his men would be much safer.

But Fraeb wasn’t keen to abandon his post. 

One day, while Baker and a few companions were hunting bison and cleaning their kills in the vicinity of Fraeb’s outpost, they saw huge puffs of dust suddenly appear over the southwest flank of the peak now known as Battle Mountain, which was then called Bastion Mountain. A large allied war party of Arapaho, Cheyenne, and Sioux — what Baker relative Chilly Rollingson calls the “Platte River Indians” —  then came riding down the southwest side of Battle Mountain. 

They were making a beeline for Fraeb’s trading post — exactly the scenario Bridger had feared.

Baker and his companions raced back to the outpost to help defend it and their lives. In the ensuing battle, Fraeb was among the first killed.

Baker, just 21 or so at the time, stepped up to take command, and his fellow scouts would later credit him with saving their lives. 

Baker, in an account decades later in a Denver newspaper, said the Indians numbered 700 or more. Other accounts have put the numbers anywhere from 200 to thousands. 

Baker told the newspaper he and the men hid behind stumps and positioned dead horses as breastworks to withstand what was about to happen.

With their manpower limited to about 24 scouts, and scarce quantities of ammunition, Baker told the men they had to make every shot count. That meant waiting until their attackers were close enough to ensure each bullet was going to hit someone or a horse. 

Baker and the men with him believed they were going to die. All they could do was make their own lives as costly as possible.

Baker’s strategy worked better than they could have imagined. Each time one of their fellow warriors fell, the Indians would stop their charge and draw back. Eventually, with only five horses left to fight over, the Indians decided to take their dead and wounded away and leave the trappers alone.

It was a stunning reversal of fate for the surviving trappers.

Carson, who told a Denver reporter he heard the story later from Indian points of view, said the warriors believed a supernatural force had turned the fight against them. They could not otherwise see how a battle where they held such overwhelming odds went so poorly.

Bastion Mountain was renamed Battle Mountain after the fight, and a different mountain was renamed Baker’s Peak.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"textStyle"},{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Keeping History Alive"}]

In later times, some of Baker’s favorite trails, drawn out on his trapper maps, have become paved highways today. 

Many people travel these routes who do not realize how these roads came to be. 

The preservation of Baker’s cabin, as the mountain man who helped settle this area of the West, is a “big responsibility,” Cynthia Reschke Collyard told Cowboy State Daily. 

She now lives in Colorado and is a direct descendant of Baker. Her great-grandmother was Baker’s daughter, Jenny, making him her great-great grandfather.

“This is rightly where it belonged, because this is where it was originally built,” she said. “But it’s a big thing for a little museum to take on the care of something like this, outside in the elements.”

She hopes to see the restoration work continue, knowing some logs on the cabin have rotted and need to be replaced. 

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"textStyle"}],"text":"The restoration so far is good, she added."}]

“It’s been done in the nick of time,” she said. “And I think a lot more work needs to be done. I don’t think it’s finished by any means.”

Collyard has been actively working through tribal records to learn more about Baker, trying to separate facts from “barstool” storytelling through the years, which have muddied the historical waters.

What she hopes for, more than anything, is for Baker and his role in history to be remembered accurately.

That’s a goal important as well to other Baker relatives such as Rollingson and Paul and Michael McAllister.

The McAllisters have donated rare Baker photos and artifacts to museums in Craig and Savery, as well as donated time to helping preserve Baker’s cabin.

“History is important,” Michael said, noting that he and his brother both helped mill and square many of the new cottonwood logs for the restoration. “Anytime you can keep history alive, it’s all for the good.”

Baker cabin 2 8 11 26

<title>Jim Baker Descendants Celebrate Work To Save Forgotten Mountain Man’s Savery Home | Cowboy State Daily</title>

Long before he built his cabin in Savery, Jim Baker led two dozen men in an 1841 fight that gave Battle Mountain its name. Now his far-flung descendants and a tiny museum are fighting time, money and rotten logs to save the frontier scout’s last home.

Jim Baker Descendants Celebrate Work To Save Forgotten Mountain Man’s Savery Home

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's general assignment reporter, Clair McFarland.

Clair McFarland

Government & Politics

Politics

Wyoming’s gubernatorial campaign is ratcheting up with attack ads now targeting Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder.

One of her two Republican opponents, Sen. Eric Barlow, has been the target of attack ads for weeks by both TV and mail.

A new political action group (PAC) that registered in Wyoming on Aug. 5 has started airing a commercial against Degenfelder, implying she engaged in “dirty deals” while working for a coal company.

U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman condemned the ad and blamed Barlow for it in a Monday Facebook post.

Degenfelder spokeswoman Charlotte Jones did the same in a Monday email to Cowboy State Daily.

Barlow, conversely, says he did not orchestrate the ad, and he too condemns it. 

[{"type":"text","text":"First, The Narrative"}]

The ad opens on a female voice and an artificial intelligence-rendered avatar of Degenfelder in a sleek black suit.

“For Megan Degenfelder, dirty politics was just business as usual,” the ad alleges. It says Degenfelder was “paid thousands to lobby for loopholes that let her company dodge millions in local taxes.”

[{"type":"text","text":"It then notes that her company went bankrupt."}]

“Degenfelder made money, Wyoming got left holding the bag,” the ad says, showcasing a July 

 reporting that Cloud Peak Energy coal company still owed Campbell County around $30-$40 million in unpaid taxes after it filed for bankruptcy.

[{"type":"text","text":"The ad does not say what “loopholes” allowed that."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Second, The Facts"}]

Before August 2017, when then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow hired Degenfelder, the latter 

Cloud Peak Energy in August 2019 found a buyer, Navajo Transitional Energy, which agreed to pay the company’s taxes, 

Wyoming Secretary of State filings say Degenfelder was a registered lobbyist for Southland Royalty Company LLC from 2016 into early 2021. That was an oil and gas company, 

[{"type":"text","text":"Third, The Backlash"}]

Barlow and Degenfelder, now both the targets of political action groups’ high-profile TV attack ads, both deny coordinating those ads.

Team Degenfelder doesn’t believe Barlow, a Monday email from Jones says.

“Wyoming voters know hypocrisy when they see it,” said Jones. “At the same time Eric Barlow decries negative campaigning calling him to task on his record, his out-of-state allies are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on an entirely AI-generated attack ad on Megan Degenfelder’s career fighting for Wyoming’s coal industry and energy jobs.”

Jones calls the ad a misguided attack and even more of an attack on Wyoming’s coal and energy industry and workers.

She also called it “consistent with Eric Barlow’s record of siding with environmental activists over Wyoming coal miners. Wyoming voters should take note, it speaks volumes about whose side Eric Barlow is on and how he would govern.”

Hageman was also unimpressed and redoubled her long-standing support for Degenfelder.

“I have learned first-hand as a legislator that what you say in a campaign defines what you will do when elected, and this ad speaks volumes,” said Hageman. “Campaigning on an anti-coal message shows that this is a concerted effort to stop production of one of our biggest assets.”

She called the Powder River Basin Resource Council, which the Barlow family helped to build, a "passion project" of the state senator's. 

Barlow countered that he’s pro-coal and pro-energy, and not behind the ad.

 “I’m from Campbell County. I grew up in Campbell County,” said Barlow. “I’ve been elected six times in Campbell County, by coal miners and rig hands.”

On the one hand, Barlow had banded with other western ranchers and landowners in 2002 to oppose what he 

 development on northern Wyoming ranchlands, and had ties then to the environmental group Powder River Basin Resource Council. Vanity Fair 

 to reduce severance taxes for coal. It wasn’t successful that year but later, more incremental bills drove coal severance taxes down 

He also said he ran a budget amendment to move a coal mining road and allow for 97 million more tons of coal to be mined.

“For anybody to think I’m not supportive  of coal and oil and gas and uranium is disingenuous,” he said. “And they’re just trying to dredge something up that does not exist.”

After the anti-Degenfelder ad aired, Barlow took to Facebook himself to condemn disparaging ads “against other gubernatorial candidates.”

“So I am not involved and I don’t know who is, and I want them all to stop,” he said. “These outside money outside agendas outside voices trying to push Wyoming people around, knock it off … We don’t need you.”

As for the third well-known Republican candidate in that race, retired Marine Corps Col. Brent Bien, his campaign outreach coordinator Cheryl Aguiar also said the Bien campaign had nothing to do with the ad.

"We don’t have any money," said Aguiar with a laugh. "I mean if we were to do an ad it would be to say good things about Brent, promote him. I don’t even know anything about her coal stuff."

[{"type":"text","text":"And, The Tangents"}]

The anti-Degenfelder PAC Keep Wyoming Working listed Armada Strategies as its ad buyer in an Aug. 6 Federal Communications Commission filing, with a Florida contact, Taylor Fernie, listed as the billing contact.

Fernie in turn is listed as a senior buyer with AxMedia, the same firm 

 for the group Barlow for governor. Similar crossover between the firms has surfaced 

“They do races all over the country,” Barlow countered, “and I don’t have any idea what other things they do. So I can’t speak to what a national company does.”

Jones said previously that Degenfelder is not affiliated with the federal issues group Women for Responsible Government Action. Regarding the state-level PAC, Jones added, “The campaign has not and is not permitted to communicate or coordinate with outside groups."

Mix Collage 10 Aug 2026 06 56 PM 6140

<title>More Dark Money In Governor's Race, With New Attack Ad On Degenfelder | Cowboy State Daily</title>

A new attack ad surfaced against gubernatorial candidate Megan Degenfelder this weekend, after independent groups attacked her opponent Eric Barlow for weeks. Rep. Harriet Hageman condemned the ad and said Barlow created it, which he denies.

More Dark Money In Governor's Race, With New Attack Ad On Degenfelder

Wyoming Life

 on Saturday. Its prognosis for Wyoming and the Rocky Mountain region is “cold, snowy at times, and breezy.”

Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day is aware of this and other long-range forecasts coming out for the upcoming winter. He's not buying what anyone's selling.

“I'm not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time,” Day said. “The Farmer’s Almanac does what the Farmer’s Almanac does. The National Weather Service will do what they do, and people on social media can post every computer model that they want, but I’m not going there yet.”

With a Super El Niño on the horizon after several consecutive historically dry months, Day was willing to discuss the broad trends that could impact Wyoming this winter. As for the specifics, there’s such a thing as being too early.

Day's message: trust these at your peril, especially when it’s still summer.

“Last year was a good example of getting too far ahead of your scheme, but it's so easy,” he said. “I’ve learned the hard way, so I’m not seeing expectations when we’re still in August.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Super, But How Super?"}]

The “biggest player” this winter, according to Day, will be 

the much-anticipated “Super” El Niño

. Weather patterns and water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which have been 

, are manifesting as one of the most intense El Niños in recent years.

“We're definitely going to have this very strong El Niño,” Day said. “It's going to be the dominant factor this winter, but it's not the only one.”

Many long-range forecasts circulating are relying on historical data from past El Niños to provide an outlook for how it will impact global weather.

Day is a huge proponent of using historical data, but there might not be a historical precedent for what’s coming. A strong El Niño can be great for Wyoming or miss it entirely.

“The El Niño can be so strong it shifts the storm track to our south,” he said. “The enhanced rain and snow you can get in the winter can bypass Wyoming. It can just miss.”

In other years, a strong El Niño has tracked farther north, inundating parts of Wyoming with precipitation.

The Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter forecast, and Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day calls it "voodoo magic." However, he does believe a very strong El Niño is on the way but he's "not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time."

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