Daily Darwin

[{"type":"text","text":"The smart money is on the turkey..."}]

Darwin 5 13 24

Cowboy State Daily is Wyoming’s largest newspaper with Wyoming’s most experienced journalists. 

<title>Daily Darwin: Monday, May 13, 2024 | Cowboy State Daily</title>

The smart money is on the turkey...

Daily Darwin: Monday, May 13, 2024

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's general assignment reporter, Clair McFarland.

Clair McFarland

Politics

People have wagered at least $189,000 on Wyoming’s governor’s race and at least $21,000 on its U.S. House race on political market sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Both sites favor Steve Friess to win the Republican nomination to U.S. House, narrowly, over Secretary of State Chuck Gray, and Eric Barlow to win the GOP nomination for governor.

But they’re not a crystal ball, Dustin Olson, owner of American Pulse Research and Polling, told Cowboy State Daily in a Monday phone interview.

Generally the more money in a race, the more reliable it is, he said. Wyoming’s House race hasn’t garnered big money: about $11,000 on PolyMarket and Kalshi each.

The big drivers of these markets are pollsters, people conducting their own surveys, people with special insight and news headlines, Olson added. Also they don’t call the wagers bets: they call them contracts, “and that’s how they get around all the (sports betting) rules.

“It’s not a good barometer of what’s necessarily real in a race … because it’s based on who’s buying contracts.” 

But, Olson added as a caveat, the markets have at least the credibility factor that people were willing to put money on their predictions.

If anyone has some assurance that Gray will win the House race, now might be a good time to buy a “contract” in his favor, noted Olson.

As of 4:40 p.m. Monday, Kalshi has Gray at 42% odds behind Friess at 54%, and all other GOP House candidates trailing with 3% or less. Reid Rasner and Kevin Christensen are next, favored at 3% and 2%.

The other candidates in the Aug. 18 Republican primary election are Senate President Bo Biteman, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, former legislator Keith Goodenough, veteran David Giralt, and Richard Dodson.

Polymarket has Friess at 51% followed by Gray at 45%, Giralt at 5%, and the others trailing at 4% or less.

Gray’s Polymarket run was a near-steady climb through July, until Aug. 1, when he dropped from 66% to 46%.

That was two days after Friess unveiled 19 endorsements from former Wyoming legislators, industry leaders and former Gov. Jim Geringer.

Kalshi showed a similar dropoff Aug. 1 for Gray, but a flatter, though sizable, lead for him all summer.

That race, in those markets, doesn’t show the kind of money that suggests pollsters or big-time surveyors are involved, said Olson. It’s likelier a reflection of public messaging, news headlines, and released polls, he added.

[{"type":"text","text":"Olson said the odds get more accurate when the pollsters jump in."}]

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Gov’s Race"}]

[{"type":"text","text":"As for the governor’s race, “This has a lot more money on it.”"}]

That’s $77,507 on Kalshi and $102,661 on Polymarket as of Monday afternoon.

[{"type":"text","text":"That means this race has more traffic, and likely more input."}]

Polymarket has Barlow at 58%, Degenfelder at 41% and Bien at 3%. Kalshi has Barlow at 62%, Degenfelder at 38% and Bien at 3.8%.

Odds for Degenfelder skyrocketed in January – right after President Donald Trump endorsed her. She kept higher wager favorability than Barlow all summer.

The two didn’t trade places on until about Aug. 1 – and they did so on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

It’s likely a lot of the same people are playing both markets, said Olson.

Barlow started to climb in mid-July before unveiling poll results July 21 showing him with a huge lead.

The markets may be out of touch with on-the-ground sentiment, said Olson, adding that many people leveraging money likely don’t live in Wyoming.

“They might be people who live in New York City,” he said. “They read the headlines, or they’re talking to the insiders, or who knows.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Headlines appear to be a large driver in this race as well, he said."}]

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Risks"}]

Olson said political wagering is, “I have to say, one of the more fascinating things to happen in politics in the last decade.”

But it carries risks of fixed races, dishonest polls, and even inside political maneuvering to fix the outcome of political events polls.

[{"type":"text","text":"“This is, honestly, not a good thing for democracy,” he said."}]

Whoever is placing the majority of these “contracts” isn’t heeding the influence of the Wyoming Republican Party leadership, which endorsed Bien last month.

Bien’s campaign outreach coordinator Cheryl Aguiar said the team doesn’t put much stock in the betting metrics the market has given to it.

“Since these prediction markets are not related to election campaigns and should not be confused with the results from actual scientific public opinion polls, and since most are held outside of the United States and reflect the betting actions of people who bet on them rather than the views of residents of Wyoming,” said Aguiar, “the Bien campaign does not consider these prediction markets to have any value whatsoever as indicators of the outcome of elections.”

Aguiar added, “In other words, these ‘predictions’ are not predicting votes, they are only laying bets. Not to mention, foreign betting markets do not have the best interests of the USA or free economies.”

[{"type":"text","text":"Kalshi’s website says it’s a U.S.-based company."}]

It was founded in 2018 by two people attending the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and became the first fully regulated financial exchange in the U.S. “specifically for event contracts,” the site says.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Oh About That $2,700"}]

Kalshi has a $2,670 market going for Wyoming’s Republican U.S. Senate nominee.

[{"type":"text","text":"It’s not a competitive market."}]

Rep. Harriet Hageman is favored at 94.5% and Jimmy Skovgard at 3.8%. The other registered Republicans running aren’t on the market but curiously, House candidate Rasner is.

Betting on the races 8 3 26

<title>Gambling Sites Favor Steve Friess And Eric Barlow, Bettors Have Wagered $210K So Far | Cowboy State Daily</title>

Gambling sites PolyMarket And Kalshi both favor Steve Friess to win the Republican nomination for U.S. House and Eric Barlow to win the GOP nomination for governor. Bettors, so far, have wagered $210,000 on these two Wyoming races.

Gambling Sites Favor Steve Friess And Eric Barlow, Bettors Have Wagered $210K So Far

Kolby fedore

Kolby Fedore

Around Wyoming

[{"type":"text","text":"The room Roman Parra left behind still looks much the way he left it."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"His Bible remains on the coffee table at his home in Worland. "}]

His truck still needs a suspension repair he never got to finish with his father.

And in the days since the 20-year-old former Worland athlete died from injuries suffered in a northern Colorado rollover crash, family members say those ordinary reminders have become priceless.

, Colorado State Patrol said Parra was critically injured July 25 when the Chevrolet Tahoe he was driving rolled on Weld County Road 80 near Eaton, ejecting all five occupants. Three Colorado passengers died at the scene. A fourth passenger survived with minor injuries. Parra remained hospitalized for eight days before dying Sunday. 

Cowboy State Daily requested the official crash summary from the Colorado State Patrol but had not received the report before publication. 

 that the State Patrol said that speed and impairment contributed to the crash, though a cause hasn’t yet been determined.

Now, those who knew Roman best say they hope he is remembered not for the crash but for the life he lived.

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"A Mother's Worst Call"}]

Roman's mother, Alyssa McDonald, said Saturday had been an ordinary summer day.

She had taken Roman's younger sister to the fair parade before returning home to surprise her oldest son by cleaning his bedroom.

[{"type":"text","text":"Roman had driven to Colorado the night before for a concert with friends."}]

As she folded clothes and straightened his room, she expected him to walk back through the front door the next day.

[{"type":"text","text":"Instead, at about 5:15 p.m., her phone buzzed."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"The Life360 app she used to keep track of Roman showed a collision."}]

"I texted, called, panicked when I saw there was no movement," said McDonald. 

She hoped his phone had simply fallen to the floor or been tossed across the vehicle.

[{"type":"text","text":"When the location never changed, she called police and waited."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Nearly two hours later, the hospital called."}]

"They told me there had been a bad accident and my son was involved," she said. "Three had passed away at the scene, but Roman had survived."

[{"type":"text","text":"Doctors rushed him into emergency brain surgery."}]

"The chance of him making it off the table was very unlikely," she said.

[{"type":"text","text":"For over a week, his family remained by his bedside before Parra died."}]

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Faith Before Football"}]

Long before he became one of Wyoming's top linebackers, Parra was the little boy who wanted one thing more than anything else.

[{"type":"text","text":"\"He just never wanted to let me down,\" McDonald said."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"His faith grew naturally alongside him, she added. "}]

As a second-grader, teachers noticed he signed the bottom of school assignments with the words "God is Good." 

Near graduation, one of his teachers asked what he wanted to do with his life.

"My first priority is my relationship with Christ," he replied, according to his mother.

Looking back, McDonald said she believes that answer explained the way he lived.

"I think that was probably his purpose in life — to spread that kindness, that joy and Christ's love," she said.

[{"type":"text","text":"His aunt, Daniela Parra, saw the same thing."}]

If someone challenged Roman's beliefs, she said, he didn't argue emotionally.

"He would fight for God all the time," she said. "If somebody said something, he could back it up with Scripture."

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Competitor On Every Field"}]

In his final high school football game in the fall of 2024, McDonald said Parra tore his meniscus.

[{"type":"text","text":"Coaches wanted to pull him from the game."}]

He finished the game and scored the final touchdown of his high school career.

In the spring of 2025, he again played through the same injury during the state soccer tournament because he didn't want to leave his teammates behind.

When football ended, Roman spent the summer working construction alongside his father while preparing to attend Laramie County Community College this fall to study automotive technology.

Asked what his son had taught him over the past 20 years, Armando Parra paused.

"He taught me peace and patience," he said. "As much as you raise a kid, a kid raises you."

[{"type":"text","text":"He credits Roman with helping him become a better man."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"\"He changed my life,\" Armando said."}]

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"'He Was That Loved'"}]

The waiting room rarely emptied during Parra's eight days in the hospital.

[{"type":"text","text":"Friends drove from Cheyenne after work."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Football families stopped in."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Strangers from Eaton, Colorado, brought food, water and supplies."}]

One mother loaned the family a wagon so they could haul meals through the hospital.

[{"type":"text","text":"For Daniela, none of it came as a surprise."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"\"I expected it,\" she said. \"He was that loved.\""}]

She remembers her nephew as the young man who encouraged everyone around him.

[{"type":"text","text":"His father said Roman never limited his friendships to teammates."}]

"He was friends with everybody," Armando said. "He fit in everywhere. He talked to everybody."

 to help cover Roman's medical and funeral expenses.

Armando also asked for prayers for the lone survivor of the crash, saying he believes the young man now faces an unimaginable burden.

"I feel worse for him than I feel for anybody," he said. "That poor boy that has to live through this is going to need more guidance than anybody I know."

Roman Wesley Parra and new Colorado crash location 8 3 26

<title>Worland Man Dies Sunday, Eight Days After Being Ejected From Car In Colorado | Cowboy State Daily</title>

Worland athlete Roman Parra died Sunday, eight days after being ejected from his vehicle in Colorado. His family said Roman's greatest gift wasn't in sports, but making everyone feel loved. "His purpose in life was to spread kindness," his mom said.

Worland Man Dies Sunday, Eight Days After Being Ejected From Car In Colorado

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's Feature Reporter, Andrew Rossi.

Andrew Rossi

Wyoming Life

For many Wyoming cities and towns, July was the hottest month on record, going as far back as 1891. 

With another month of record-breaking temperatures, day after day, 2026 is on track to be the hottest year in Wyoming’s recorded history as well. And, at this point, there’s no end in sight as we move into August.

“The consistency and intensity of the heat, especially for northern and northeastern Wyoming, was really remarkable,” said Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day. “I fully expect that if it's not the hottest July in many areas, since records have been kept, it will certainly be in the top three.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"In Record Heat"}]

Throughout July, Wyoming was under a stubborn heat wave that refused to let up. 

Jason Straub, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Riverton, said seven communities either set records or tied for the hottest July on record.

“Big Piney, Buffalo, Casper, Lander, Riverton, Rock Springs, and Worland have set year-to-date records,”  Straub said. “We're well into first-place all-time rank for those sites.”

Historically, Riverton has a day with temperatures over 100 degrees three times every five years.

There were six days with highs at or over 100 during July. That’s around 10 times the five-year average in a single month.

Lander, which has the oldest climate records in Wyoming, usually has one 100-degree high every six years. It had two 100-degree days in July, which is 12 times the average going back to 1891.

Meanwhile, Cheyenne set its own record in July: the longest streak of days where temperatures stayed above 60 degrees, even overnight.

“Temperatures didn’t drop below 60 degrees for 13 days, between July 18 and July 30,” said meteorologist Shelby Fuller with NWS Cheyenne. “Our previous streak was eight days. That’s very unusual for Cheyenne and Wyoming as a whole.”

Average temperatures in July ranged from 3.9 degrees to 6.3 degrees above normal across Wyoming. Between 69% and 77% of the days in July had above-average temperatures.

Even places prone to heat during the summer, such as Worland, set record highs in July. Worland's 110-degree high on July 12 broke the town's record for that day by 3 degrees and was the hottest in Wyoming last month.

[{"type":"text","text":"It also ranks among the hottest days ever recorded in Wyoming."}]

For the record, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Wyoming is 115 degrees at the Wind River Diversion Dam on July 15, 1988.

It’s all really hot, but Day noted that some historical records are longer than others.

“Nobody’s saying this is the hottest July since the dawn of time,” he said. “

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Heat Under Pressure"}]

The primary source of July’s record-setting heat was a high-pressure ridge with a “bull’s-eye” over northeast Wyoming, according to Day.

However, Wyoming’s humidity was also high throughout July. That typically means more moisture, but that didn’t happen.

“What we were fighting for the month of July was moisture being drawn into Wyoming, but the high-pressure ridge over the Northern Plains was so strong, it was making it harder to rain, even though we had that moisture.”

Straub added that another high-pressure ridge set up over the Four Corners region. That means Wyoming spent July sandwiched between two ridges that kept everything hot and dry.

“That ridge stretched well into Wyoming for most of the month,” he said. “That blocked moisture and let the heat dominate and repeat, day after day.”

High-pressure ridges, and the heat domes they create, are expected to set up somewhere in North America during the summer. In July, Wyoming got the short end of the stick.

“When these ridges set up, there's not a whole lot to push them around,” Straub said. “It needs the jet stream to push them around, but the jet stream's well into Canada at this time of year, so it's not influencing any heat domes that set up.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Monsoon Too Soon"}]

The unrelenting heat of July also meant the monsoonal moisture many people were hoping for never showed. The moisture-rich air from the Pacific Ocean arrived, but it couldn’t beat the heat.

“That's the thing with the monsoon,” Fuller said. “Even when there are increased chances for heavy rainfall across the area, that doesn't mean every single place is going to see and/or benefit from it.”

For the few places that got some monsoonal moisture, it was a decent month for precipitation.

According to Day, thunderstorms were much more active in western Wyoming in July, explaining the 

. The disparity between western and eastern Wyoming, due to the high-pressure ridge, was “quite remarkable.”

“Any time a thunderstorm really wanted to build up, or it looked like there could be multiple days of thunderstorms, they were running into that high pressure east of the Continental Divide,” he said. “That’s how much it influenced the eastern side of the state.”

[{"type":"text","text":"High humidity is also what kept overnight temperatures high."}]

“High humidity keeps those temperatures warmer at night, and makes it more uncomfortable in the heat,” said Day. “That’s one thing that sticks out to me, and a lot of people probably noticed that nighttime temperatures stayed elevated all month.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Stuck In The Middle Of It"}]

Straub said the NWS Riverton office was still compiling data from stations that malfunctioned in July. He expects that data would only add more confirmation to what’s already known.

“If it wasn’t the hottest July on record for those places, it’ll be pretty close,” he said. “They had the same heat as everybody else.”

No relief is expected anytime soon. Monday and Tuesday were to be significantly cooler, with daytime highs in the 70s, but the heat will be back.

“Once this cold front is through, we're back into hotter temperatures, upper 80s and 90s, by the end of the week,” Fuller said. “Unfortunately, it looks like August is probably going to be another hot one.”

Day expected the first half of August to feel like July, with above-average temperatures and stubborn heat. After that, he’s “cautiously optimistic” that Wyoming will get cooler.

“For the first 10 days of August, don't expect too much different,” he said. “When you go through the second half of August, we normally start to see things subtly change. Days are getting shorter, nights are longer, and it gets harder to get prolonged periods of that kind of heat.”

Those subtle changes could give monsoonal moisture a chance to manifest and fall as precipitation across Wyoming. 

The critical thing to remember, even if August eventually gets cooler, Straub said, is that it’s still the peak of summer. Wyoming’s summers are always hot, but this record-breaking streak seems poised to continue, keeping 2026 on track to be the hottest year in Wyoming’s recorded history.

“We're still in the middle of summer,” Straub said. “That area of high pressure can reestablish itself pretty quickly, so we're not out of the heat quite yet. Hopefully, everyone can stay cool until then."

Worland temperature 7 13 26

<title>July Was Wyoming's Hottest Month On Record — And 2026 Is On The Same Pace | Cowboy State Daily</title>

For most of Wyoming, July was the hottest month in recorded history. Worland's scorching 110 degrees on July 12 was the hottest, while many towns saw as many 100-degree days in one month as they usually see in several years.

July Was Wyoming's Hottest Month On Record — And 2026 Is On The Same Pace

Government & Politics

[{"type":"text","text":"The attack ads against governor candidate Sen. Eric Barlow continue."}]

A federal PAC earlier this summer dispatched a TV commercial saying Barlow had voted to allow sex change procedures “to be done on kids” in 2023. The record, conversely, shows that Barlow voted in favor of a child sex-change ban that year.

The new attack ads say Barlow voted to send money to illegal immigrants. He denies making such a gesture, saying his nay votes on two immigration bills were due to the short, rushed nature of the budget-planning sessions that fall on even-numbered years.

“This is getting super wonky,” said Barlow in a Monday phone interview. “It truly is.”

He said the bills he's now being criticized for opposing were either poorly written or rushed - sometimes both. 

"So look, good bills make strong laws that work for the state of Wyoming," said Barlow. "Hastily done things that are less than complete in both their policy approach and their consideration just need more time." 

[{"type":"text","text":"First, The Race"}]

The race for the GOP nomination for governor pits Barlow against Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, retired Marine Corps Col. Brent Bien, and Curt Blake.

[{"type":"text","text":"Barlow, Bien and Degenfelder each gained bragging points last month."}]

Bien won the Wyoming Republican Party’s endorsement, as about 50 members of the party’s state central committee broke tradition to endorse him and other statewide candidates.

For Degenfelder, President Donald Trump reiterated the endorsement he gave her in January.

And Barlow touted the results of a poll, which Cowboy State Daily has reviewed, showing him with a 42% support rating and well above the other candidates.

[{"type":"text","text":"The primary election is Aug. 18."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Second, The Ads"}]

A federally registered 501(c)4 issue group called Women For Responsible Government Action produced attack ads earlier this summer casting Barlow as liberal on social issues involving kids.

The group claimed Barlow voted to allow sexual orientation and gender identity to be taught to kindergarteners and to allow sex change procedures “to be done on kids.”

[{"type":"text","text":"The record tells a different story."}]

Barlow voted against the 2023 Senate File 111, which would have applied a felony punishable by up to 10 years in prison to anyone involved in medically transitioning a child from one gender to another, with exceptions for intersex and other unique situations.

Barlow criticized the bill’s definitions, calling it imprecise. But that same year he voted in favor of “Chloe’s Law” – which sought to strip medical professionals of their licenses for medically transitioning kids.

Barlow had, as the ad notes in a subtext, voted against the 2023 Senate File 117. The bill sought to ban teaching of gender ideology to public-school kids in grades kindergarten through third grade.

But Barlow voted in favor of that bill’s 2024 successor, Senate File 9, which became law.

The sequel legislation bans schools from teaching sexual orientation or gender identity without permission, and compels schools to notify parents if their children experience psychological changes, which may include a newly-voiced transgender identity.

[{"type":"text","text":"He told Cowboy State Daily that the 2024 bill was simply written better."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"The PAC Talking About Immigration"}]

Barlow supporters voiced consternation on social media last week and over the weekend, in response to fliers and commercials characterizing him as liberal on immigration.

Sen. Eric Barlow on Monday said attack ads accusing him of voting to allow sex changes and voting to send money to illegal immigrants are not true. He said the bills he voted against were poorly written or rushed and are being twisted against him.

Daily Darwin: Monday, May 13, 2024

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