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Mac Watson

Daily Video News

It’s time to take a look at what’s happening around Wyoming for Tuesday, August 11th.  I’m Mac Watson.

This newscast is brought to you by the Wyoming State Fair. Wrap up your summer at the Wyoming State Fair, August 11th through the 15th in Douglas!

Rodeo, Demolition Derby, live music, entertainment and fair food await. Learn more at W-Y State Fair dot com. See you at the fair! This ad was paid for by Converse County Tourism.

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Climbing into a three-wheeler called "The Pantydropper" with a 50-year Sturgis veteran who boasted "it goes zero to 100 in a second," ended up with our reporter at the wheel and the flashing lights of a South Dakota patrol car behind them. Cowboy State Daily’s Kolby Fedore wasn’t arrested, but her first experience at Sturgis was unforgettable, to say the least.

“Against my better judgment, I got into Manny Myer's tricked-out trike that he calls ‘The Pantydropper.’ It got its name because he says that's the toll to ride. But luckily, I got a ride for free. We got past the Boar's Nest when he pulled over and asked me to drive, so I took over and something happened. A cable snapped and I lost the throttle, so Manny figured out that he could kind of hang off the side and operate the throttle from under the hood while still kind of hanging on to this three wheeler, and that was going fine and well until we saw the flashing lights of a South Dakota highway trooper. The trooper said he pulled us over for driving recklessly. Luckily, Myers was able to talk him out of a ticket, and we figured out a way to jimmy-rig a set of jumper cables onto that lever so that we could fire up the horses and run it by the reins. We made it to the Buffalo Chip just as the sun was setting, and Sturgis was really waking up. It was loud, chaotic, and just a lot of fun for motorcycle enthusiasts. And I'm glad that I went.”

motorcycles pour in the town of Sturgis from every direction

, transforming the place into a temporary city of chrome, leather and humanity, with Main Street as its pulsing center. The South Dakota town swells from just over 7,000 people to half a million each year.

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Laramie County Sheriff Brian Kozak says the lawsuit two Cheyenne politicos are waging against him is at least partly political in nature, and tied to his investigation of the 'CheckGate' controversy. Cowboy State Daily’s Clair McFarland reports that the sheriff says recent search warrants have “stirred the hornets' nest.”

“Governor's candidate Rebecca Bextel, and he, also then in late June, was sued for alleged public records violations, where the plaintiffs Lichter Immigration and Kevin Lewis, represented by Attorney Drake Hill, are saying you did not hand over the proper documents so that we can get on with this immigration case. More recently, Thursday, the plaintiffs asked the court to consider holding the sheriff in contempt for allegedly not handing over the documents he was ordered to hand over in time by an August 5th deadline. So you have these moving pieces with people who do have deep political ties, but are on the one hand saying no, the sheriff broke the law, and the sheriff saying the people who are accusing me of breaking the law have political ties to the people I'm investigating.”

Colorado-based firm Lichter Immigration and its investigator Kevin Lewis 

 against Laramie County Sheriff Brian Kozak and his office June 30.

Wyoming sportsmen are saying the sudden resignation of Game and Fish Director Angi Bruce came as a surprise despite some misgivings about the department's direction. Outdoors Reporter Mark Heinz reports that Bruce, the department's first female director, now has a job in the governor's office. 

“There has been some consternation with the department, but it wasn't necessarily personally against Angie Bruce. It was more just the direction they sense the department's been going now for a while, and also what they've noted. There's been a lot of notable high profile retirements lately that might have come a little early of the old guard, and maybe people aren't quite as happy with, you know, the shifting of the new people that are coming in, particularly people from other parts of the country. Game and Fish is going through a period of shakeups right now, but should I mean everybody's hoping it'll stabilize soon when a new governor comes in and and you know appoints a new director.”

There is no clear explanation as to why Bruce suddenly left the helm at Game and Fish for an appointment as director of special policy initiatives for Gov. Mark Gordon’s office, a job she started Monday. Prominent Wyoming outdoorsman Guy Eastman of Cody tells Cowboy State Daily, “I think that was a surprise to everybody. I didn’t see that one coming.”

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A new attack ad surfaced against gubernatorial candidate Megan Degenfelder this weekend, after independent groups attacked her opponent Eric Barlow for weeks. Cowboy State Daily’s Clair McFarland reports that Rep. Harriet Hageman condemns the ad and says Barlow created it, which he denies.

“We found a PAC buying attack ads on Megan Degenfelder, and so it's just becoming kind of a mudslinging, dark-money race. A PAC called ‘Keep Wyoming Working’ is saying that she helped a coal company get loopholes to avoid paying taxes, and then the company went bankrupt. She received a salary from the coal company. The ad does not point to any loopholes in particular.”

Barlow and Degenfelder, now both the targets of political action groups’ high-profile TV attack ads, both deny coordinating those ads.

I’ll have more news from Cowboy State Daily right after this.

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Cowboy State Daily News continues now….

As of Monday, Jackson's Lindsay Woods is poised to win the Mongol Derby 2026, the longest and most arduous multi-horse race in the world. Cowboy State Daily’s Andrew Rossi reports if she wins the 620-mile marathon, she'll become the second woman from Wyoming to do so.

“As of Monday, Lindsay Woods was one of the top three riders. She had six stations between her and the finish line. A lot of people who have spoken to a lot of people who know Lindsay and are eagerly following her progress say she is in it to win it, she's been training for months. She's a very skilled equestrian. She has got the mental and physical fortitude to see this through, and it's possible we could have another Wyoming winner of the Mongol Derby before the end of the week.”

the Mongol Derby. She split the victory with fellow rider and now lifelong friend Willemien Jooste of South Africa in July 2022.

A 34-acre parcel of land donated to Sublette County more than a decade ago to benefit 4-H, FFA, and youth agricultural education has become the center of a bitter dispute between two organizations that both work with local children. Cowboy State Daily’s Kate Meadows reports that both organizations say they are committed to helping local youth, but they have been unable to agree on how — or whether — they can share the same ground.

“MESA is a local equine therapy organization that has asked to lease a portion of it that they believed were not being used by Sublet County 4-H. Sublette County 4H essentially said no. We need all 34 acres for what we're doing now and for future projects, and that's leaving Mesa kind of up in the air with how do we grow our program and where can we find a place to be permanently. MESA Director Carla Seely said that they are looking at alternative options right now and looking for 20 acre, 10-to 20-acre parcels of land that they could use on a permanent basis. This would be a place where they could not only carry out their programs but also house their horses permanently.”

According to Director Carla Seely, MESA is seeking a permanent facility to keep and increase its number of horses before it can serve more children. The county-owned parcel was a fitting place to look, she says, because MESA supports youth and agriculture through equine therapy. She also contended that 4-H uses only a portion of the 34 acres, while a portion of the donated land remains vacant.

Grizzlies are stuffing themselves with moths at higher elevations, but once the moths are gone food supplies could get scarce as bears move to lower elevations seeking protein for hibernation, one ecologist says. Outdoors Reporter Mark Heinz reports that a poor chokecherry crop is one concern.

“I checked in with a couple people here in Wyoming, and one of them, you know, Chuck Neal. He's an old-school ecologist and knows bears pretty well. He says at least at the higher altitudes, they're doing okay. And he said, at least in his area, north north west Wyoming, he's noticed that the choke cherry crop is really hurting this year, and and the bears are highly dependent on that. And then when it comes to black bears, Dan Thompson with Game and Fish said, "Yeah, people are probably probably noticed a lot more black bear activity because they are out looking, you know, maybe looking in some unusual places to try to find food.”

While it’s been exceptionally dry at lower elevations, things have looked better for grizzlies farther upslope, says Neal, who frequently hikes in grizzly country in northwest Wyoming. 

The Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter forecast, and Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day calls it “voodoo magic.” However, Cowboy State Daily’s Andrew Rossi reports that Day does believe a very strong El Niño is on the way but he's “not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time.”

“He's going to release his winter forecast later on in the year when we have a better idea of how the Super El Nino is interacting with everything else because that'll have broad implications. He called El Nino the quarterback and the head coach of this upcoming winter season, but there are other players on the field and on the bench, and those need to be considered before we put a three to four month outlook on the winter weather out there.”

With a Super El Niño on the horizon after several consecutive historically dry months, Day was willing to discuss the broad trends that could impact Wyoming this winter. As for the specifics, there’s such a thing as being too early. Day's message: trust these at your peril, especially when it’s still summer.

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And that’s today’s news. Get your free digital subscription to Wyoming's only statewide newspaper by hitting the Daily Newsletter button on 

 - and you can watch this newscast every day by clicking Subscribe on our 

 channel, or listen to us on your favorite podcast app.  Thanks for watching - I’m Mac Watson, for Cowboy State Daily.

News image 8 11 26

<title>Cowboy State Daily Video Newscast: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Cowboy State Daily</title>

Tuesday's headlines include:
* Bad Decisions In Sturgis
* Why Did Game & Fish Dir. Quit?
* Kozak Says Lawsuit Due To CheckGate

Cowboy State Daily Video Newscast: Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's general assignment reporter, Clair McFarland.

Clair McFarland

Government & Politics

Wyoming’s gubernatorial campaign is ratcheting up with attack ads now targeting Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder.

One of her two Republican opponents, Sen. Eric Barlow, has been the target of attack ads for weeks by both TV and mail.

A new political action group (PAC) that registered in Wyoming on Aug. 5 has started airing a commercial against Degenfelder, implying she engaged in “dirty deals” while working for a coal company.

U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman condemned the ad and blamed Barlow for it in a Monday Facebook post.

Degenfelder spokeswoman Charlotte Jones did the same in a Monday email to Cowboy State Daily.

Barlow, conversely, says he did not orchestrate the ad, and he too condemns it. 

[{"type":"text","text":"First, The Narrative"}]

The ad opens on a female voice and an artificial intelligence-rendered avatar of Degenfelder in a sleek black suit.

“For Megan Degenfelder, dirty politics was just business as usual,” the ad alleges. It says Degenfelder was “paid thousands to lobby for loopholes that let her company dodge millions in local taxes.”

[{"type":"text","text":"It then notes that her company went bankrupt."}]

“Degenfelder made money, Wyoming got left holding the bag,” the ad says, showcasing a July 

 reporting that Cloud Peak Energy coal company still owed Campbell County around $30-$40 million in unpaid taxes after it filed for bankruptcy.

[{"type":"text","text":"The ad does not say what “loopholes” allowed that."}]

[{"type":"text","text":"Second, The Facts"}]

Before August 2017, when then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow hired Degenfelder, the latter 

Cloud Peak Energy in August 2019 found a buyer, Navajo Transitional Energy, which agreed to pay the company’s taxes, 

Wyoming Secretary of State filings say Degenfelder was a registered lobbyist for Southland Royalty Company LLC from 2016 into early 2021. That was an oil and gas company, 

[{"type":"text","text":"Third, The Backlash"}]

Team Degenfelder doesn’t believe Barlow, a Monday email from Jones says.

“Wyoming voters know hypocrisy when they see it,” said Jones. “At the same time Eric Barlow decries negative campaigning calling him to task on his record, his out-of-state allies are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on an entirely AI-generated attack ad on Megan Degenfelder’s career fighting for Wyoming’s coal industry and energy jobs.”

Jones calls the ad a misguided attack and even more of an attack on Wyoming’s coal and energy industry and workers.

She also called it “consistent with Eric Barlow’s record of siding with environmental activists over Wyoming coal miners. Wyoming voters should take note, it speaks volumes about whose side Eric Barlow is on and how he would govern.”

Hageman was also unimpressed and redoubled her long-standing support for Degenfelder.

“I have learned first-hand as a legislator that what you say in a campaign defines what you will do when elected, and this ad speaks volumes,” said Hageman. “Campaigning on an anti-coal message shows that this is a concerted effort to stop production of one of our biggest assets.”

She called the Powder River Basin Resource Council, which the Barlow family helped to build, a "passion project" of the state senator's. 

Barlow countered that he’s pro-coal and pro-energy, and not behind the ad.

 “I’m from Campbell County. I grew up in Campbell County,” said Barlow. “I’ve been elected six times in Campbell County, by coal miners and rig hands.”

On the one hand, Barlow had banded with other western ranchers and landowners in 2002 to oppose what he 

 development on northern Wyoming ranchlands, and had ties then to the environmental group Powder River Basin Resource Council. Vanity Fair 

 to reduce severance taxes for coal. It wasn’t successful that year but later, more incremental bills drove coal severance taxes down 

He also said he ran a budget amendment to move a coal mining road and allow for 97 million more tons of coal to be mined.

“For anybody to think I’m not supportive  of coal and oil and gas and uranium is disingenuous,” he said. “And they’re just trying to dredge something up that does not exist.”

After the anti-Degenfelder ad aired, Barlow took to Facebook himself to condemn disparaging ads “against other gubernatorial candidates.”

“So I am not involved and I don’t know who is, and I want them all to stop,” he said. “These outside money outside agendas outside voices trying to push Wyoming people around, knock it off … We don’t need you.”

As for the third well-known Republican candidate in that race, retired Marine Corps Col. Brent Bien, his campaign outreach coordinator Cheryl Aguiar also said the Bien campaign had nothing to do with the ad.

"We don’t have any money," said Aguiar with a laugh. "I mean if we were to do an ad it would be to say good things about Brent, promote him. I don’t even know anything about her coal stuff."

[{"type":"text","text":"And, The Tangents"}]

The anti-Degenfelder PAC Keep Wyoming Working listed Armada Strategies as its ad buyer in an Aug. 6 Federal Communications Commission filing, with a Florida contact, Taylor Fernie, listed as the billing contact.

Fernie in turn is listed as a senior buyer with AxMedia, the same firm 

 for the group Barlow for governor. Similar crossover between the firms has surfaced 

“They do races all over the country,” Barlow countered, “and I don’t have any idea what other things they do. So I can’t speak to what a national company does.”

Jones said previously that Degenfelder is not affiliated with the federal issues group Women for Responsible Government Action. Regarding the state-level PAC, Jones added, “The campaign has not and is not permitted to communicate or coordinate with outside groups."

Mix Collage 10 Aug 2026 06 56 PM 6140

<title>More Dark Money In Governor's Race, With New Attack Ad On Degenfelder | Cowboy State Daily</title>

A new attack ad surfaced against gubernatorial candidate Megan Degenfelder this weekend, after independent groups attacked her opponent Eric Barlow for weeks. Rep. Harriet Hageman condemned the ad and said Barlow created it, which he denies.

More Dark Money In Governor's Race, With New Attack Ad On Degenfelder

Coy Knobel

Don Day Weather

Mostly sunny, areas of smoke in Wyoming on Tuesday. Fire danger in some locations. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight.  Highs from the low 80s to low 100s. Lows in the 50s to low 60s.

Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., mostly sunny, hot and breezy today with a high near 97 and wind gusts as high as 29 mph. Mostly cloudy overnight with a low near 61 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph.

Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny and hot today with a high near 97 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph. Mostly cloudy overnight with a low near 61 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph.

  Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny and hot today with a high near 97 and wind gusts as high as 23 mph. Increasing clouds overnight with a low near 64 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph.

  Slight chance of rain after noon, patchy smoke before 3 p.m., partly sunny today with a high near 86 and mostly cloudy overnight with a low near 55.

   Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke before 7 a.m., increasing clouds today with a high near 91 and wind gusts as high as 23 mph. Mostly cloudy overnight with a low near 59 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph.

 Patchy smoke before 7 a.m., mostly sunny today with a high near 87 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph. Mostly cloudy overnight with a slight chance of rain after 5 a.m., a low near 55 and wind gusts as high as 20 mph.

 Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., mostly sunny today with a high near 86 and wind gusts as high as 23 mph. Mostly cloudy overnight with a low near 53 and wind gusts as high as 21 mph. 

 Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny today with a high near 91 and increasing clouds overnight with a low near 55.

  Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., mostly sunny today with a high near 86 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph. Increasing clouds overnight with a low near 50 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph. 

 Patchy smoke before 7 a.m., sunny and breezy today with a high near 84 and wind gusts as high as 31 mph. Mostly cloudy and breezy overnight with a low near 54 and wind gusts as high as 28 mph.

  Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny today with a high near 89 and wind gusts as high as 20 mph. Mostly cloudy overnight with a low near 53.

Old Faithful in Yellowstone National Park

:  Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny today with a high near 81 and wind gusts as high as 20 mph. Increasing clouds overnight with a low near 46.

Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny today with a high near 96 and wind gusts as high as 21 mph. Partly cloudy overnight with a low near 64.

:  Widespread smoke before 7 a.m., sunny today with a high near 91 and wind gusts as high as 21 mph. Increasing clouds overnight with a low near 62 and wind gusts as high as 21 mph.

  Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny today with a high near 95 and increasing clouds overnight with a low near 61 and wind gusts as high as 21 mph.

   Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., sunny and breezy today with a high near 90 and wind gusts as high as 24 mph. Increasing clouds overnight with a low near 64 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph.

   Areas of smoke, sunny and hot today with a high near 94 and partly cloudy overnight with areas of smoke and a low near 57.

:   Areas of smoke, sunny and hot today with a high near 91 and partly cloudy overnight with areas of smoke and a low near 61.

Areas of smoke, sunny today with a high near 93 and wind gusts as high as 23 mph. Increasing clouds overnight with areas of smoke, a low near 61 and wind gusts as high as 24 mph.

   Areas of smoke, sunny today with a high near 92 and wind gusts as high as 21 mph. Partly cloudy overnight with areas of smoke, a low near 63 and wind gusts as high as 21 mph. 

:  Areas of smoke, sunny today with a high near 95 and wind gusts as high as 20 mph. Partly cloudy overnight with areas of smoke, a low near 61 and wind gusts as high as 20 mph.

  Patchy smoke, sunny and hot today with a high near 102 and partly cloudy overnight with patchy smoke and a low near 62. 

   Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke after 10 a.m., mostly sunny and hot today with a high near 93 and wind gusts as high as 25 mph. Partly cloudy overnight with patchy smoke, a low near 58 and wind gusts as high as 25 mph.

  Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Areas of smoke before 7 a.m., breezy, gradually becoming sunny today with a high near 96 and wind gusts as high as 26 mph. Increasing clouds overnight with a low near 61 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph.

   Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke after 2 p.m., slight chance of rain after 4 p.m., increasing clouds and hot today with a high near 94 and partly cloudy overnight with a slight chance of rain before 9 p.m. and a low near 61. 

  Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke after 1 p.m., slight chance of rain after 4 p.m., increasing clouds today with a high near 88 and gradually becoming mostly clear overnight with a slight chance of rain before 9 p.m. and a low near 55. 

  Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke after 11 a.m., mostly sunny and hot today with a high near 92 and partly cloudy overnight with patchy smoke before 9 p.m. and a low near 55. 

   Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke after 11 a.m., mostly sunny and hot today with a high near 91 and mostly cloudy overnight with patchy smoke before 8 p.m. and a low near 61.  

   Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke after 3 p.m., mostly sunny today with a high near 89 and mostly cloudy overnight with a low near 55.  

   Red flag fire warning from noon today until 9 p.m. tonight. Patchy smoke after noon, mostly sunny today with a high near 89 and wind gusts as high as 25 mph. Mostly cloudy overnight with patchy smoke before 9 p.m. and a low near 57. 

Daycap small 8 11 26

<title>Don Day's Wyoming Weather Forecast: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Cowboy State Daily</title>

Mostly sunny, areas of smoke in Wyoming on Tuesday. Fire danger in some locations. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Highs from the low 80s to low 100s. Lows in the 50s to low 60s.

Don Day's Wyoming Weather Forecast: Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Headshot of Cowboy State Daily's Feature Reporter, Andrew Rossi.

Andrew Rossi

Wyoming Life

 on Saturday. Its prognosis for Wyoming and the Rocky Mountain region is “cold, snowy at times, and breezy.”

Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day is aware of this and other long-range forecasts coming out for the upcoming winter. He's not buying what anyone's selling.

“I'm not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time,” Day said. “The Farmer’s Almanac does what the Farmer’s Almanac does. The National Weather Service will do what they do, and people on social media can post every computer model that they want, but I’m not going there yet.”

With a Super El Niño on the horizon after several consecutive historically dry months, Day was willing to discuss the broad trends that could impact Wyoming this winter. As for the specifics, there’s such a thing as being too early.

Day's message: trust these at your peril, especially when it’s still summer.

“Last year was a good example of getting too far ahead of your scheme, but it's so easy,” he said. “I’ve learned the hard way, so I’m not seeing expectations when we’re still in August.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Super, But How Super?"}]

The “biggest player” this winter, according to Day, will be 

the much-anticipated “Super” El Niño

. Weather patterns and water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which have been 

, are manifesting as one of the most intense El Niños in recent years.

“We're definitely going to have this very strong El Niño,” Day said. “It's going to be the dominant factor this winter, but it's not the only one.”

Many long-range forecasts circulating are relying on historical data from past El Niños to provide an outlook for how it will impact global weather.

Day is a huge proponent of using historical data, but there might not be a historical precedent for what’s coming. A strong El Niño can be great for Wyoming or miss it entirely.

“The El Niño can be so strong it shifts the storm track to our south,” he said. “The enhanced rain and snow you can get in the winter can bypass Wyoming. It can just miss.”

In other years, a strong El Niño has tracked farther north, inundating parts of Wyoming with precipitation.

A strong El Niño is a given this winter. At this point, its trajectory could take it either way, which is why Day isn’t giving into the pressure to release a long-range forecast.

“The north-south extent of the El Niño signal is a real concern I have,” Day said. “It's really too early to glob onto and go all-in on either a model-driven forecast or what we would call an analog forecast of looking at El Niños from the past.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Hangover"}]

The top reason to be skeptical of any long-range winter forecasts for this winter is the lessons still to be learned 

Day acknowledged how his long-range forecast for the 2025-2026 winter season, released in August 2025, was radically different from the winter Wyoming got. That stung, but his misery had good company.

“That’s the cautionary tale,” he said. “We had 90 blocking patterns this winter. Nobody anticipated that, and no models predicted it. Simply put, our models fail.”

Those “blocking patterns” were stubborn ridges of high pressure that essentially 

 from reaching Wyoming and siphoned it elsewhere. That’s why it was historically dry in the western U.S. and historically cold and snowy in the eastern U.S.

By November 2025, it was clear that the colder, snowier winter forecasted wasn’t going to plan. Nearly every month since then has been 

“This summer was a hangover from last winter, especially through July,” Day said. “Last winter, all our weather went north. A really strong El Niño can direct all the storms south. That is a concern.”

El Niño isn’t known for having frequent blocking patterns. Instead, it tends to have one blocking pattern that can last for several months without let-up.

According to Day, very persistent, stubborn blocking patterns are “a concern” with the incoming El Niño. Where those patterns could set up, and how it would impact the winter, remain to be seen.

That’s one area where Day had a sliver of confidence when looking ahead. Historically, the enduring block patterns have favored Wyoming.

“You can have a semi-permanent high-pressure system over central Canada that migrates back and forth,” he said. “El Niño patterns can lock in between December and February, which is a concern, but it's not in the Pacific, which was our problem last year.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Who’s On The Bench?"}]

For Day, putting out a long-range forecast for the 2026-2027 winter season would be like betting on the winner of a barely started chess game. The game’s afoot, and there’s no way to confidently say what the winning move will be.

However, Day can look at the board and see which pieces are and aren’t in play. Many of the factors that came together to make last winter so warm and dry aren’t a factor now.

“What we can say about the upcoming winter is that it does not look like we have all of the big players that we had last winter,” he said.

The 2025-2026 winter season started with a weak La Niña. Since the Super El Niño is already manifesting, La Niña won’t be a factor going forward.

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a cyclical pattern of wind directions in the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere. It has enormous impacts on global weather.

According to Day, the QBO was in “an easterly phase” last year. This year, winter will begin when the QBO is in its opposite, westerly phase.

Then there are the North and South Poles, which are already colder than they were at this point last year.

Several elements that affect long-range weather and seasonal forecasting are different this year. How it all plays out with a strong El Niño remains uncertain.

“El Nino is going to be the quarterback and head coach this winter, bar none,” Day said. “There are other players involved, but that's why we've got to understand these players and those that aren't going to come off the bench until a little bit later on.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Given"}]

Historically, El Niño has been favorable for Wyoming’s winter, bringing colder temperatures and precipitation. That’s a possible scenario for this winter, but there are no guarantees.

That’s another reason Day doesn’t want to make people more optimistic or pessimistic than they need to, especially in August. Many people who are seeking salvation from a strong El Niño might not get it.

“If you take a critical look at El Niños in Wyoming, it’s extremely rare that the entire state benefits from it,” he said. “If we do get into stubborn holding patterns, El Niños can be feast or famine, and Wyoming is a big state.”

[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"No Voodoo That You Do So Well"}]

As Day was discussing his concerns about long-range winter forecasts in August, he didn’t even consider what the Farmer’s Almanac was forecasting.

“I'm not going to include the Farmer’s Almanac,” he said. “They're either taking models verbatim, or they're taking El Niños that have occurred in the past. These approaches aren't necessarily wrong, but I don't think that's the right way to approach the winter forecast when we're still on the backside of summer.”

Day’s hoping to have his winter forecast ready by mid-September, when the impacts of the Super El Niño are starting to roll in. It’s going to be so critical that its impact shouldn’t be anticipated so soon.

“A lot of things that are going to drive this winter, in addition to El Niño, aren't going to really start showing themselves until we get deeper into fall,” he said. “I am not going to go there yet. I’m not setting expectations. We need to be patient.”

Day’s word of caution to Wyomingites was to be extremely skeptical of any long-range winter forecast they might see for the next month or so. Any person or agency that’s confident in their forecast, in his opinion, doesn’t have enough critical information to be credible.

“The problem with doing long-range weather forecasts is that weather is so dynamic,” he said. “If you make a graphic that's good for three or four months, and subtle things change, then you have to throw it out the window. That’s why we have to be careful.”

That goes double for the Farmer’s Almanac. While it still has its uses in the 21st Century, long-range weather forecasts aren’t one of them.

“I don't know what voodoo magic they use to get their forecasts,” he said. “I don't think we should be talking about any detailed winter forecast till maybe mid to late September. Until then, it’s not helpful for anybody.”

Don day winter 8 11 26

<title>Meteorologist Don Day Calls New Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast 'Voodoo Magic' | Cowboy State Daily</title>

The Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter forecast, and Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day calls it "voodoo magic." However, he does believe a very strong El Niño is on the way but he's "not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time."

Meteorologist Don Day Calls New Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast 'Voodoo Magic'

Kerry Drake

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