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Don Day

Meteorologist Don Day: Media Outlets Writing “Climate Click-Bait” Stories Use Well-Known Formula

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By Ellen Fike & Jimmy Orr, Cowboy State Daily

Meteorologist Don Day, often referred to as “Wyoming’s weatherman,” wishes news outlets were more selective about the data they use to write about the weather.

Day, responding to a recent story about the use of air conditioning in the Rocky Mountain West, said while the story claimed temperatures are steadily growing warmer, it offered no data to back up the assertion.

“Most climate news stories are like this, heavy in anecdotes and light in any data,” said Day, the founder of DayWeather.

The story reported by Wyoming Public Media referred to warm weather in some areas, citing Sheridan as an example, but Day said it offered no hard data to back up the assertions.

“June and July were hot, but did not break records, as it was hotter in 1988 and 2007,” Day said. “August in Sheridan was cooler than last year and 2019. It is really easy to cherry pick weather data to prove hot or cold.”

He added that while October 2019 in Sheridan was the coldest on record, that fact is not evidence of global cooling.

“There is really no hard weather data in the story, a few references to some hot days, but no long term data trends provided,” he said.

Day said “climate click-bait” stories follow a formula with six main points:

  1. Shocking headline.
  2. Claim that recent observed weather is the worst ever recorded, likely using cherry-picked or misleading data.
  3. A quote from a scientist who likely is not in atmospheric science and says this is worst and more is to come.
  4. Quote from another article or link to a paper some environmental group has written.
  5. Another claim of impending doom.
  6. There is time to change all of this, we can change the weather if we only change our ways, there is hope but only if you do what we say.

“You will see this pattern over and over again the media/press, watch for the pattern,” Day said.

Day said peoples’ perception of what they see in weather is frequently based on what they are experiencing now instead of looking back to get a historical perspective.

“If I had a dime for every time I saw a news story that said ‘this was the worst ever’, I’d be rich,” he said comparing the hyperbolic coverage of Hurricane Ida to past hurricanes.

“This was nothing like Hurricane Camille or many of the hurricanes in the late 1960s or the 1970s, but the perception is this was the worst hurricane of all time,” Day said.

Camille was the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone recorded in the world, and one of only four tropical cyclones worldwide ever to achieve wind speeds of 190 mph. Camille killed 259 people and cause 1.42 billion dollars in damage in 1969 dollars.

Day said reporters will oftentimes interview people who offer personal anecdotes and then frame their stories as evidence of another sign of manmade climate change and “we are destroying the climate.”

“We’ve seen these weather patterns before, we’ve seen them in the 1940s and 1950s but that’s all forgotten,” he said.

Also ignored by most of the media, Day said, was the lack of tornados this year. Through June of 2021, the total tornado count is the lowest since the 1950s.

“I could put out a press release this year stating that this was one of the least active tornado seasons ever and blame it on climate change but no one would cover it,” Day said. “Because you can’t associate something positive with climate change, it has to be the end of the world.”

Day said he’s not denying that human activity may impact the climate. He describes himself as a “climate realist.”

“Yes, human related emissions may have played some role in warming over the past few decades,” Day said. “However, politicians, media, and environmental groups constant mantra that every major weather event is somehow the result of human activity is intellectually dishonest.”

“The weather and climate we experience is also driven by numerous variables that do not include greenhouse gases that we have absolutely no control over. You can point your finger at human activity and greenhouse gases till the cows come home but it is not the whole climate story,” he said.

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Desert Heat Invading Wyoming; Long-Term Forecast Dismal

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Wyoming’s weatherman Don Day on Friday said Wyoming is about to get a blast of desert heat and the long-range forecast for precipitation is not looking good.

Day, in his morning podcast, said a dome of high pressure is moving into the state from the desert southwest and that will “open the floodgates” for desert heat.

“What will happen is kind of like an accordion,” Day said. “Underneath this area of high pressure is a lot of very, very warm air. And, this high pressure Ridge will build and expand and then it will sometimes contract.”

Day said there is a large part of North America – which includes Wyoming – that’s going to be hot for a an extended time along with sparse precipitation.

“These temperatures are really amazing. The heat gets all the way to Nova Scotia, and back down into Mexico,” he said.

He did say there would be some thunderstorms this weekend but they would like produce little rain but lots of wind.

Day said if the European weather prediction model is correct, expect hot temperatures with little rain all the way through July 4.

He said the weather pattern is similar to what Wyoming experienced during the summer of 2012.

“So after what was a pretty good May for a lot of you, the next 30 days is not terribly optimistic,” Day said.  “Were going to have hot and dry conditions at least for the first couple of weeks of June.”

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Don Day: Prepare to Be Annoyed, Miller Moths Are Coming Back

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By Ellen Fike, Cowboy State Daily

Don Day walked into his office on Monday and was hit in the face by a miller moth.

On one hand, he was grateful, because they seem to late in hatching this year to annoy Wyomingites. On the other hand, they’re back.

Although Day isn’t a bug expert, he did tell Cowboy State Daily he thinks the moths are hatching later this year due to the colder spring the state and western U.S have been experiencing.

“From my very unscientific study so far, people around the state are just beginning to see them hatch,” he said.

The miller moth is the adult stage of the army cutworm, which is common in Wyoming and surrounding states. The moths are attracted to certain types of light, as they use the moon and other celestial lights to guide them on their flights.

Since Day just saw his first moth on Monday, he has been asking listeners of his weather podcast to send in reports of their miller sightings to podcast@dayweather.com. This week so far, he’s heard reports of miller sightings from Lander, Thermopolis and Fort Bridger.

“Usually it’s the end of May and into June when they’re coming around, but it does seem a little later this year due to the cool weather we’ve had,” Day said.

He couldn’t say whether Wyoming and other western states would experience the massive influx of moths like last summer, though. Day noted some of the other large invasions of moths occurred in 1991 and 2002, so maybe Wyoming will be lucky enough to avoid a major infestation this year.

Thankfully, the moths are just annoying, not destructive.

Day said he set up a moth trap last year that consisted of a bucket of soapy water placed next to a single-bulb lamp. The moths will be attracted to the light and then fall into the soapy water, where they will ultimately die.

“We were having a body count of 15 to 30 a night,” Day said. “I think they’re so annoying because of the volume and they’re so sneaky. You can do everything to keep them out, and then you’ll find some inside your house.”

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Don Day Wyoming Weather Forecast: Monday, March 22, 2021

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Don Day Saturday Morning Snowstorm Update: “This Is A Dangerous Storm, Don’t Mess With It”

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Wyoming’s weatherman Don Day on Saturday morning said nothing has changed and the much-anticipated winter storm to affect large portions of the state is on track.

Day, in special edition of his daily weather podcast, said although the bullseye of the storm is in east-central and southeastern Wyoming, other parts of the state from Green River to Lander to the I-90 corridor will be affected as well.

“We went through a checklist earlier in the week where you had to have all the right things come together, all the right pieces of the puzzle to have a really big storm like what’s been being advertised this weekend. All of that’s coming together,” Day said.

In the bullseye areas, two or more feet of snow can be expected while his maps show areas outside of the bulleye to receive anywhere from eight to 21 inches.

“Look at Nebraska and east central and southeastern Wyoming and the Front Range of Colorado, there’s going to be a tremendous amount of water available,” Day said pointing to his maps.

And that’s not at all. Wind is going to be a factor too.

Wind gusts of more than 50mph are forecast in the bullseye areas of southeastern Wyoming, east-central Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeastern Colorado.

Day cautioned people not to get complacent just because it’s relatively calm on Saturday morning – at the time of his recording.

“Even though there’s really not much going on right now at the time of this podcast here Saturday morning, things deteriorate extremely rapidly in these situations,” he said.

“So things can change on you, don’t test your luck, if you’re gonna go out and drive a long way, hoping to beat it. Because this system is coming together,” he said.

What’s interesting about this storm is that nearly its entire lifespan will happen right here in Wyoming, Colorado, and Nebraska.

“This is typical in these high plains Rocky Mountain big snowstorms is that the storm actually goes through its whole lifecycle right on top of us,” Day said.

“And that’s where you tend to get these big, big snow events. As the storm develops, goes through its whole maturity process. It gets really strong and then it begins to dry out and dissipate as that dry wedge gets pulled in and very typical for that to happen,” he said.

The video of Day’s podcast can be viewed here.

The rough transcription of Day’s podcast follows:

——————————————-

Good morning, and welcome to Saturday, March 13 2021. Here’s a special weather update podcast for everybody. Thought we would get up this Saturday morning and see if the overnight hours would change our mind on the storm. 

Well, they didn’t. This is going to happen, folks. 

As we discussed yesterday, confidence was getting really high, our computer modeling was was getting lined up being very consistent. 

And we went through a checklist earlier in the week where you had to have all the right things come together, all the right pieces of the puzzle to have a really big storm like what’s been being advertised this weekend. All of that’s coming together. 

This is a parent based on all the latest information. Southeast and east central Wyoming and western Nebraska and Northern Colorado will be in the bullseye of this storm. 

That’s where the heaviest snow is going to fall in those areas along I 25 and Interstate 80. Out further on the plains, it will be a major winter storm as well. 

But there’ll be rain at first and that’ll cut off some of the heavier snowfall amounts. 

Now for you folks like that i 90 corridor, you remain on the far northern edges of the storm and if the storm wiggles a little more north, you’re going to get into the snow, if it stays on its current track or goes a little more south, you’re just going to get brushed by it. 

The I 90 corridor is kind of the boundary of where this storm is going to be impactful. The worst conditions will be Saturday afternoon through early Monday, that’s when everything comes together. 

Now a lot of areas are in some freezing drizzle and fog this morning. So we’ve got a thin glaze of ice in many areas east of the divide this morning and East in the mountains.

 That’s going to put a thick layer of ice in some areas with this, which is snow is going to fall on top of.

High impacts: obviously for travel and livestock through Monday, this is a dangerous storm. Don’t mess with it. 

Even though there’s really not much going on right now at the time of this podcast here Saturday morning, things deteriorate extremely rapidly in these situations. 

So things can change on you, don’t test your luck, if you’re gonna go out and drive a long way, hoping to beat it. Because this system is coming together. 

As of this morning, the upper level low was about where all the models have been forecasting it to be just north of Page Arizona, drifting very slowly to the four corners area. 

And that’s where it is this morning. It remains cut off from the main jet stream, it’s extremely well organized, a high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. 

All of those pieces we’ve been showing you throughout the week have not changed. They’re all there. So the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was coming. 

Now here is a satellite and radar image. This is a radar image just taken. So you can see actually see this ring of moisture. It’s right around the upper level low right here near Lake Powell.

And here’s that fetch of moisture coming up from the Gulf and all over the eastern plains and into here. 

Over the last couple of hours, we’ve had lightning strikes in northeastern Colorado and Southeast Colorado in northeastern New Mexico seeing some thunderstorms. 

So the instability of the lifting of the atmosphere from the low here is happening as advertised.

Now this moistures got to get drawn in and pulled up here like this. And that’s going to be happening over the next six hours. 

As we get into Sunday. This is for noon, Sunday, the upper level low is in southeastern areas of Colorado, very well formed low, extremely deep upslope winds to 30,000 feet getting driven into the northern Front Range of Colorado, southern Wyoming and into western Nebraska.

And the feed of moisture is uninhibited. Yes, there’s going to be some thunderstorms, and that will take away some of the moisture, but the moisture is thick and deep. So even with thunderstorms, we’re still gonna have a lot brought back to the Front Range.

This system here will act as a kicker. So the storm will get pulled out of the area, beginning very late Sunday night into Monday morning. 

So this is really going to be about a 42 to 48 hour event all together. 

When you take a look at where the surface low pressure will be. It’s going to be right in the southeast Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle area right here. 

And this is a pressure gradient. These are surface pressures. And you can see the lineup of the surface pressures from west to east here. 

And that’s where the wind follows. So the upslope is very, very deep at the surface all the way up to basically where you fly in a commercial jet really high into the atmosphere. 

And if you just imagine the amount of lift that takes place, from the moisture that’s brought from the gulf and the planes that are much lower and altitude and lift it to our higher altitudes here that just generates a lot of lift and a lot of the right physics to create snowflakes to cause precipitation to cause the atmosphere to cool to create the machine that the storms become. 

These are the latest updated snow forecast and precipitation totals I’m showing you the latest projection of total precipitation through early Monday and you can see there along the front range for South of Denver, up to Cheyenne up to Casper back to Lander, all of that orange, anything that’s orange is two inches or more, the darker red, you’re getting over three inches. 

Again, this is a prediction. Notice there is less here and I’m going to show you here on the simulated stat satellite. 

Why there’s a little wedge here of drier air, that’s going to lead to less precipitation amounts there, which is too bad. This is going to be great moisture. But I wish they would get a little bit more here. 

But look at Nebraska. And look at East Central and southeastern Wyoming and the Front Range of Colorado, there’s going to be a tremendous amount of water available. 

And when we convert that to snow, due to the fact that temperatures aren’t terribly cold, it’s going to be about a 10 to one ratio on the plains meaning one inch of water is going to mean about 10 inches of snow.

It’s going to start as a very wet snow then get drier as we go on. But all the areas in blue and pink and purple are where you’re going to see the snow accumulate the purple and the gray here in southeast and East Central Wyoming definitely showing the bull’s eye.

Really there’s two bullseyes and a lot of these are terrain induced due to the higher terrain getting lifted up along the slopes of the mountains and the foothills. 

We had mentioned yesterday that there’s going to be a bit of a snow shadow west of the major mountain ranges. 

There’ll be a bit of a snow shadow into Walden, a little bit of a snow shadow west of the Laramie range and snowy range mountains and the mountains – you see this hole right here in northwestern areas of Colorado where that mountain flow, that flow of air from the east is going to take away a lot of the moisture on the eastern side of the mountain.

 So the western side of the mountains aren’t going to get as much nonetheless, there is so much moisture and energy going to get over the divide, you can still see there’s going to be precipitation getting into western Colorado, southwestern areas of Wyoming and even eastern Utah as well. 

Wind is going to be a factor. These are the forecasted wind gusts with the storm and we have this area of really strong winds up here in Nebraska, southeastern areas of Wyoming in the northern Colorado. 

You’re going to have sustained winds 20 to 30 gusting 40 to 50 miles an hour or more in this area, so that will cause blizzard conditions. 

We’re also gonna have high winds blowing snow and blizzard conditions near South Pass and also in Sweetwater County and east central parts of Sweetwater and Carbon County.

This is going to be what’s called a gap wind, where the wind gets pushed through the mountain terrain and the gaps in the mountain ranges. 

So we’re gonna have a lot of wind on I 80 right here with the snow as well. And then on the bottom side of that low, strong winds impacting New Mexico today, tonight and into early tomorrow. 

So this storm folks has everything. 

Here’s the simulated satellite photo, I showed you this yesterday. This is kind of fun. 

This shows you what a satellite photo should look like by noon tomorrow. And as you can see, we have the long fetch moisture getting drawn into Wyoming and Colorado. 

You see the curl, where the upper level low is going to be the counterclockwise spin around there. 

And also notice and I talked about this earlier you see that dry wedge right here. 

The storm is so strong, the counterclockwise circulation brings drier air into the storm out of Mexico and the desert southwest and brings it in. 

So you’re gonna see a clearing out here in western Kansas, right here during the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night. 

And what will happen is, this pocket of dry air will get pulled into the storm Sunday night into Monday effectively causing the storm to reach its peak and dissipate as it drifts off to the north and east it will not be nearly as strong. 

So what happens and this is typical in these high plains Rocky Mountain big snowstorms is the storm actually goes through its whole lifecycle right on top of us. 

And that’s where you tend to get these big, big snow events. As the storm develops, goes through its whole maturity process. It gets really strong and then it begins to dry out and dissipate as that dry wedge gets pulled in and very typical for that to happen. 

So folks, there’s no turning back. Hopefully you can get through everything. Okay, thanks for listening and watching the day weather podcast. And we’ll see you on Monday. Might have a special update for you tomorrow morning. If we see any changes. Good luck with the storm and be prepared

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Don Day: Slow Moving Snowstorm Is Going To Happen, Really Impressive Amounts of Snow

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Wyoming’s weatherman Don Day said nothing significant changed overnight that would alter the forecast for the big snowstorm that is heading toward our state over the weekend.

Day, in his daily morning forecast, said parts of Wyoming are still on tap to receive many feet of snow.

The only thing that has changed since yesterday is the speed of the storm. It’s slowing down a bit. 

That means peak activity won’t happen until Saturday afternoon instead of Saturday morning.

“Be patient, it’s gonna take a while this is a really slow mover,” Day said.  “It’s going to be the latter part of Saturday and Saturday night when the storm starts to get real western.”

Day said he was still uncertain about how much of the storm will hit northeastern Wyoming. 

“To the folks living along Interstate 90, from Sheridan to Buffalo to Gillette, to Sundance on the way to Rapid City, you’re on the northern fringes, where a slight change in the track of the storm will make a big difference,” Day said.

The bullseye, he said, continues to be southeast, east central Wyoming, and northern Colorado.

In an interview with Cowboy State Daily on Thursday, Day said the Centennial area, the Laramie summit and the foothills of Wheatland and Douglas could see the largest amounts, mentioning that 2 to 5 feet of snow is possible.

Cheyenne, Wheatland, Torrington, Casper, and Lusk could all receive between 12 and 24 inches of snow, with higher amounts a possibility.

“Snowfall amounts may be a little shorter than the 2003 storm but the total snowfall of the 2003 storm is hard to beat. But we’ll come close, we’re gonna have some really impressive snow,” he said.

He also said some of the forecasted amounts might be a bit excessive mentioning a computer model showing Wheatland receiving 34 inches but only time will tell.

Don’s complete weather forecast can be viewed here.

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Don Day Weather: Huge Snowstorm Expected; Up To Five Feet West of I-25 Corridor

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Wyoming’s weatherman Don Day is predicting a massive snowstorm to hit Wyoming over the weekend, with the Interstate 25 corridor predicted to see the most snow.

Computer models, he said, are “all over the place” in predicting widely differing snow amounts but one thing is certain: snow is coming.

“The storm is going to happen. Our confidence level is very high. All of the ingredients are there,” Day told Cowboy State Daily.

The amount of snow and the exact locations are still in play but Day said the Centennial area, the Laramie summit and the foothills of Wheatland and Douglas could see the largest amounts, mentioning that 2 to 5 feet of snow is possible.

He said Cheyenne, Wheatland, Torrington, Casper, and Lusk could all receive between 12 and 24 inches of snow, with higher amounts certainly a possibility.

“Our computer modeling is showing tremendous amounts of moisture with this storm,” he said. “Some models are showing 3 to 6 inches of water content. If you convert that to snow, that is a tremendous amount of snowfall.”

Most areas of the state, he said, will be affected by the snowstorm, and he specifically mentioned Rock Springs, Green River, Rawlins, Lander, and Riverton as some of the areas that will be hardest hit.

He said the Jackson area, Star Valley, Pinedale, and the Cody area will miss the storm completely.

As for the timing, Day said the peak of the storm will occur on Saturday and continue on until Sunday morning.

What everybody wants to know now, however, is how much snow will fall and exactly where. 

Patience, he said. By Friday morning, he’ll know much more.

“Now that the storm has moved inland to the coast, we can start measuring it with weather balloons and other sensors,” he said. “By Friday morning, we’ll have a better idea about the amounts to expect and the exact track of the storm.”

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Many Wyoming Towns Never Went Above Zero on Thursday

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Thinking it’s cold where you are?

Try being in Powell, Wyoming today. It’s high? -15 degrees.

Buffalo and Cody were right behind chalking up highs of -13 degrees while Gillette posted a high of -11.

Greybull, Cowley, Worland, and Casper at least were in the single digits below zero with highs of -7, -6, -5, and -4 respectively.

This is all part of a big Arctic front that is finally pushing a Pacific front out of the way.

The two fronts have been battling over the last week and now it looks like the Arctic blast will win out and in a big way.

That’s something that impresses meteorologists. Take Wyoming’s Don Day, for example. He’s been pretty bored over the couple months as Wyoming has been unseasonably warm and dry.

“This is a huge Arctic outbreak,” Day said. “You don’t normally see them with such extent like this east to west. So that is something that is quite impressive.”

“The thickness of the Arctic air vertically also is pretty impressive,” he said. “It gets very deep — thousands of feet deep.”

Be forewarned, Wyoming — especially eastern and central Wyoming — that dangerous wind chills are heading our way. Negative 40 is not out of the realm of possibility.

For the most comprehensive weather information, check out Don Day’s forecast on our YouTube channel.

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Don Day: Life-Threatening Cold Temperatures Ahead; Wind Chills 40 – 50 Below

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It’s really, really cold out there.

Cold enough for pants to stand upright by themselves? Yes, it’s that cold.

The frozen jeans you see pictured were placed in Ton Winter’s front yard in Wheatland.

Those pants won’t be thawing out any time soon with at least four days of sub-zero weather facing that community.

Places like Gillette, Wyoming are really getting it.  The high on Thursday will be 11 below zero. Sheridan and Sundance will top out at 9 below zero. While Casper will make it all the way up to 2 below.

To show you how crazy Wyoming weather is, the icebox of the nation — Big Piney, Wyoming — will hit a balmy high of 33 degrees on Thursday. Pinedale, normally another super chilly spot, will see a high of 28, while Bondurant will make it to an even freezing.

This is all because, if you’ve been listening to Wyoming weatherman Don Day, there’s been a battle going on between the Arctic Pacific fronts.

When the Pacific front moves in, it warms up. When the Arctic front pushes the Pacific front out, it cools down.

And there’s been a dividing line between the two fronts. Western Wyoming is warmer while central and eastern Wyoming are really cold.

That’s about to change. In Super Bowl terms, the Arctic front is Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and they are about to dominate the Pacific.

That means the entire state is going to see an Arctic blast — the likes of which we haven’t seen in over a year.

“We’re expecting a push of Arctic here to get deeper get, let’s say a mile thick as we get into the Friday through Sunday timeframe, and we’re gonna see most of the state go below zero,” Day told Cowboy State Daily.

“These are really dangerous conditions,” Day said. “It’s been a long week for livestock and it’s about to get a lot longer.”

Day said the weekend will be especially cold in Wyoming not only because of the temperatures but because of the winds.

“Wind chills at 30 – 40 degrees below zero — or even colder in northeastern Wyoming — will occur this weekend,” Day said.

“The temperatures may not be record-setting but they’re getting really, really close to being record temperatures,” he said.

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Don Day Weather Forecast: Monday, January 18, 2021

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The following is a rough transcript of Don Day’s Wyoming weather forecast for Monday, January 18, 2021.

Welcome to Monday, January 18 2021. Thanks for tuning into the day weather podcast. Well to start the week we’re going to have a system and to end the week we’re going to have a storm system. But in the middle, well not much going on. 

So it’s like a sandwich with no meat in the middle. We got bread on top today, bread on the bottom by the weekend, but very little meat in the middle. But the pattern is getting more active. 

Arctic air is still not able to move in yet. This is typical in a La Nina pattern for arctic air to have a hard time getting pushed south, even though there are a lot of large scale hemispheric suggestions that it will come in. 

But the model still doesn’t see it quite yet. Although it will be trending colder by the weekend. 

This is the strongest lining and going back to 2010 to 2012. So it’s something that is definitely dominated pattern. I know you’re probably tired of me talking about La Nina but to use a sports analogy, it’s flooding the zone.

It is completely dominating the pattern for the western United States and parts of the central US and the far west. It’s just completely taken over. 

And the pattern that we’ve seen so far this winter is definitely a classic La Nina, speaking of La Nina here are the sea surface temperatures. 

As we look, we see all the blue and the subtropical Pacific. Also notice the Northern Pacific is starting to get colder as well. And I’ll show you the sea surface changed since November. And some really interesting things are showing up. 

We’ve got this warm pocket down here. But that’s not going to really influence our weather. It’s all about this area really right here. And also what’s developing up here, that will continue to impact our weather here for the rest of the winter season. 

If you were to measure the heat content of the upper ocean, in the key area of the subtropical Pacific at that longitude, you can see that since April, that’s when things started to turn dry. 

Last April, May in June is when the western states started to dry out. And we saw that the sea surface temperatures which they normally do warm up a little bit right at the peak of summer. 

But look at the heat content of the subtropical Pacific since then, and it’s very, very low. So we’re putting very little heat into the atmosphere compared to normal, also less water vapor into the atmosphere because of the La Nina.

If you were to look at how sea surface temperatures have changed since November 13. Now notice there’s actually been a slight warm up in the subtropical Pacific since November. But they’re still as we just showed you in the map. They’re still colder than normal. 

But look at this. Look at the North Pacific and then along the California coast, the sea surface temperature since November have dived. And this is something that we saw in 2011 and 2012. 

That’s why we’re so concerned, getting more and more concerned about the dryness continuing this summer in the western United States, because this is exactly what happened with that strong La Nina about, about 10 – 11 years ago. 

And again, I’ll say this, again, these La Ninas that are bad tend to be at the bottoms of solar minimums, which is what we just got through. So again, there’s no surprise on what’s happening. 

Now let’s take a look at how the weather pattern evolves in the short term. This is where we are today. We’ve got this broad trough coming in right here. 

It’s not really well organized. But we did see some nice snow in the mountains of Wyoming and Colorado and parts of Montana, Idaho last night, and we’ll see some more up in the high country and a few snow showers in the plains. 

But look what happens with this broad area of low pressure. It splits with a piece headed to the northern plains and this piece dropping Southwest into southern California. 

This is again, something that happens a lot in La Nina seasons because the Jetstream winds are so strong. Then as we go further out, this is Wednesday, we end up with a low off the coast of Southern California. 

Now this is bad news for California. Now I know that we don’t have many podcast watchers in California right now, but you’ll probably be hearing about this on the news. 

So we’re giving you a heads up when you get a low that drifts off the California coast like this in winter, you tend to have a big surface gradient of high pressure in Utah and low pressure there so the air moves this way. 

This is a classic Santa Ana. So what will happen is all of a sudden you get really worried really fast about the fire danger in California. 

If somebody gets a fire started in the Santa Ana. Well, it’s bad news is you get these strong easterly winds. 

And you can see it Southern California poised to have 50 – 60 mile per hour wind gusts or more with the Santa Ana developing this week. 

Now as we get into the weekend, that low off the west coast gets pulled in. We have another trough coming on in and we see a general broad area of low pressure for this weekend, and that’s going to lead to better chances of snow and colder weather in the Intermountain West. 

Now whether or not it’s a big organized storm well put together we’ll just have to see and we’re also going to be seeing small weather disturbances coming off the Pacific, Thursday night and Friday, bringing the mountains some snow here and a few snow showers to the plains. 

So we’ll keep an eye on the weekend. The weekend could produce more in the way of snowfall and if we were to look through Saturday afternoon, you can see at least the computer modeling is showing an enhanced chance of snow coming back into the northern and central Rockies along with some colder temperatures for the weekend and into early next week. 

Thanks for listening to watching the day weather podcast. Have a great Monday. Talk to you tomorrow.

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